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Planning of distributed renewable energy systems under uncertainty based on statistical machine learning

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Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems 2022年第1期7卷 619-645页

作者： Xueqian Fu xianping wu Chunyu Zhang Shaoqian Fan Nian Liu College of Information and Electrical Engineering China Agricultural University100083 BeijingChina Beijing Engineering and Technology Research Center for Internet of Things in Agriculture BeijingPeople’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System With Renewable Energy Sources North China Electric Power University102206 BeijingChina

The development of distributed renewable energy,such as photovoltaic power and wind power generation,makes the energy system cleaner,and is of great significance in reducing carbon ***,weather can affect distributed renewable energy power generation,and the uncertainty of output brings challenges to uncertainty planning for distributed renewable *** systems with high penetration of distributed renewable energy involve the high-dimensional,nonlinear dynamics of large-scale complex systems,and the optimal solution of the uncertainty model is a difficult *** the perspective of statistical machine learning,the theory of planning of distributed renewable energy systems under uncertainty is reviewed and some key technologies are put forward for applying advanced artificial intelligence to distributed renewable power uncertainty planning.

关键词： Distributed renewable energy systems Statistical machine learning Uncertainty planning Renewable energy network

Optimal stopping investment in a logarithmic utility-based portfolio selection problem

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Financial Innovation 2017年第1期3卷 433-442页

作者： Xun Li xianping wu Wenxin Zhou Department of Applied Mathematics The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong KongChina School of Mathematical Sciences South China Normal UniversityGuangzhouChina

Background:In this paper,we study the right time for an investor to stop the investment over a given investment horizon so as to obtain as close to the highest possible wealth as possible,according to a Logarithmic utility-maximization objective involving the portfolio in the drift and volatility *** problem is formulated as an optimal stopping problem,although it is non-standard in the sense that the maximum wealth involved is not adapted to the information generated over ***:By delicate stochastic analysis,the problem is converted to a standard optimal stopping one involving adapted ***:Numerical examples shed light on the efficiency of the theoretical ***:Our investment problem,which includes the portfolio in the drift and volatility terms of the dynamic systems,makes the problem including multi-dimensional financial assets more realistic and meaningful.

关键词： Optimal stopping Path-dependent Stochastic differential equation(SDE) Time-change Portfolio selection

Predicting lifetime risk for developing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in Chinese population:the China-PAR project

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Science Bulletin 2018年第12期63卷 779-787页

作者： Fangchao Liu Jianxin Li Jichun Chen Dongsheng Hu Ying Li Jianfeng Huang Xiaoqing Liu Xueli Yang Jie Cao Chong Shen Ling Yu Zhendong Liu xianping wu Liancheng Zhao Xigui wu Dongfeng Gu Xiangfeng Lu Department of Epidemiology Fuwai Hospital State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular DiseaseNational Center for Cardiovascular DiseasesChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100037China The 3rd Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University Shenzhen 518001China Department of Prevention Medicine Shenzhen University School of MedicineShenzhen 518060China Division of Epidemiology Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital and Cardiovascular instituteGuangzhou 510080China Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China Department of Cardiology Fujian Provincial People's HospitalFuzhou 350014China Cardio-Cerebrovascular Control and Research Center Institute of Basic MedicineShandong Academy of Medical SciencesJinan 250062China Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Chengdu 610041China

Evidence on the lifetime risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease （ASCVD） is insufficient; yet, estimating an individual＇s lifetime risk allows for a comprehensive assessment of ASCVD burden. We developed and validated lifetime risk prediction equations for ASCVD using four large and ongoing prospective cohorts of Chinese, the China-PAR project （Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China）. Sexspecific equations were developed using two cohorts （as the derivation cohort） of 21,320 participants. Two other independent cohorts with 14,123 and 70,838 participants were used for their external valida- tion, respectively. We evaluated both calibration and discrimination measures for model performance. Furthermore, we estimated ASCVD-ffee years lost or excess absolute risk attributable to high 10-year risk （≥10.0%） and]or high lifetime risk （≥32.8%）. After 12.3 years＇ follow-up of the derivation cohort, 1048 ASCVD events and 1304 non-ASCVD deaths were identified. Our sex-specific equations had good internal validation, with discriminant C statistics of 0.776 （95% confidence interval [CI]： 0.757-0.794） and 0.801 （95% CI： 0.778-0.825）, and calibration Z2 of 9.2 （P = 0.418） and 5.6 （P = 0.777） for men and women, respectively. Good external validation was also demonstrated with predicted rates closely matched to the observed ones. Compared with men having both low 10-year and low lifetime risk, men would develop ASCVD 3.0, 4.6 and 8.6 years earlier if they had high 10-year risk alone, high lifetime risk alone, or both high 10-year and high lifetime risk at the index age of 35 years, respectively. We developed well- performed lifetime risk prediction equations that will help to identify those with the greatest potential to avert ASCVD burden after implementation of innovative clinical and public health interventions in China.

关键词： Atherosclerosis Cardiovascular disease Lifetime risk Risk prediction

Ideal cardiovascular health and incidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease among Chinese adults:the China-PAR project

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Science China(Life Sciences) 2018年第5期61卷 504-514页

作者： Chao Han Fangchao Liu Xueli Yang Jichun Chen Jianxin Li Jie Cao Ying Li Chong Shen Ling Yu Zhendong Liu xianping wu Liancheng Zhao Dongshen Hu Xiangfeng Lu Xigui wu Dongfeng Gu Department of Epidemiology Fuwai Hospital National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing 100037 China Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing 211166 China Department of Cardiology Fujian Provincial People's Hospital Fuzhou 350004 China Cardio-Cerebrovascular Control and Research Center Institute of Basic Medicine Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences Jinan 250062 China Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Chengdu 610041 China Department of Prevention Medicine Shenzhen University School of Medicine Shenzhen 518060 China

Existing evidence on the relationship between cardiovascular health(CVH) metrics and cardiovascular disease(CVD) was primarily derived from western populations. We aimed to evaluate the benefits of ideal CVH metrics on preventing incident atherosclerotic CVD(ASCVD) in Chinese population. This study was conducted among 93,987 adults from the China-PAR project(Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) who were followed up until 2015. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios(HRs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals(CIs) of CVH metrics for the risk of ASCVD, including coronary heart disease(CHD), stroke and ASCVD death. We further estimated the population-attributable risk percentage(PAR%) of these metrics in relation to each outcome. We observed gradient inverse associations between the number of ideal CVH metrics and ASCVD incidence. Compared with participants having ≤2 ideal CVH metrics, the multivariable-adjusted HRs(95% CIs) of ASCVD for those with 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 ideal CVH metrics were 0.83(0.74–0.93), 0.66(0.59–0.74), 0.55(0.48–0.61), 0.44(0.38–0.50) and 0.24(0.18–0.31), respectively(P for trend <0.0001). Approximately 62.1% of total ASCVD, 38.7% of CHD, 66.4% of stroke, and 60.5% of ASCVD death were attributable to not achieving all the seven ideal CVH metrics. After adjusting effects of ideal health factors, having four ideal health behaviors could independently bring adults health benefits in preventing 17.4% of ASCVD, 18.0% of CHD, 16.7% of stroke, and 10.1% of ASCVD death. Among all the seven CVH metrics, to keep with ideal blood pressure(BP) implied the largest public health gains against various ASCVD events(PAR% between 33.0% and 47.2%), while ideal diet was the metric most difficult to be achieved in the long term. Our study indicates that the more ideal CVH metrics adults have, the less ASCVD burden there is in China. Special efforts of health education and behavior modification should be made on keeping

关键词： cardiovascular health ASCVD cohort China

Associations of egg consumption with incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality

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Science China(Life Sciences) 2020年第9期63卷 1317-1327页

作者： Xue Xia Fangchao Liu Xueli Yang Jianxin Li Jichun Chen Xiaoqing Liu Jie Cao Chong Shen Ling Yu Yingxin Zhao xianping wu Liancheng Zhao Ying Li Jianfeng Huang Xiangfeng Lu Dongfeng Gu Department of Epidemiology Fuwai HospitalNational Center for Cardiovascular DiseasesChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100037China Division of Epidemiology Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital and Cardiovascular InstituteGuangzhou 510080China Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China Department of Cardiology Fujian Provincial HospitalFuzhou 350014China Shandong First Medical University Jinan 271016China Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Chengdu 610041China

Eggs are nutrient-dense while also loaded with abundant cholesterol, thus making the public hesitant about their *** conducted the study to investigate if egg consumption is associated with incident cardiovascular disease(CVD) and all-cause mortality. Using the project of Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China, we included 102,136 adults free of CVD and assessed their egg consumption with food-frequency questionnaires. CVD endpoints and all-cause mortality were confirmed during follow-ups by interviewing participants or their proxies and checking hospital records/death *** HRs(95% CIs) were calculated using the cohort-stratified Cox regression models. During 777,163 person-years of followup, we identified 4,848 incident CVD and 5,511 deaths. U-shaped associations of egg consumption with incident CVD and allcause mortality were observed. Compared with consumption of 3–<6/week, the multivariable-adjusted HRs(95% CIs) of <1/week and ≥10/week for incident CVD were 1.22(1.11 to 1.35) and 1.39(1.28 to 1.52), respectively. The corresponding HRs(95% CIs) for all-cause mortality were 1.29(1.18 to 1.41) and 1.13(1.04 to 1.24). Our findings identified that both low and high consumption were associated with increased risk of incident CVD and all-cause mortality, highlighting that moderate egg consumption of 3–<6/week should be recommended for CVD prevention in China.

关键词： egg consumption cardiovascular disease all-cause mortality cohort study

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农村地区高血压危险因素的病例对照研究

中华流行病学杂志 1992年第6期13卷 355-358页

作者：吴先萍钟朝坤四川省卫生防疫站，成都市，610031 广汉市卫生防疫站绵竹县卫生防疫站绵竹县医院什邡县卫生防疫站

对四川省农村地区218例原发性高血压（其中包括109例临界高血压）进行配对（1：2）病例对照研究。资料分析采用了条件Logistic回归分析方法。研究结果提示心率、高血压家族史、环境噪声、体重指数（QI）等综合因素与临界高血压和确诊高... 详细信息

对四川省农村地区218例原发性高血压（其中包括109例临界高血压）进行配对（1：2）病例对照研究。资料分析采用了条件Logistic回归分析方法。研究结果提示心率、高血压家族史、环境噪声、体重指数（QI）等综合因素与临界高血压和确诊高血压均有显著的联系。心率、体重指数（QI）以及高血压家族史是原发性高血压较稳定的影响因素，心率可作为研究血压的必测指标。环境因素对原发性高血压的影响不可忽视。原发性高血压是遗传因素、环境因素等综合作用的结果。

关键词：高血压对比研究流行病学

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罚金刑在环境犯罪中的适用

法学杂志 2009年第7期30卷 53-55页

作者：吴献萍中南林业科技大学法学院湖南长沙410004

罚金刑在环境犯罪中适用具有重大的意义。作为一种轻缓化的刑罚,罚金刑在国外刑罚体系中的地位不断上升,大有取代短期自由刑之势。分析我国罚金刑适用中存在的问题,借鉴国外相关立法经验加以完善,是确保我国罚金刑在惩治和预防环境犯罪... 详细信息

罚金刑在环境犯罪中适用具有重大的意义。作为一种轻缓化的刑罚,罚金刑在国外刑罚体系中的地位不断上升,大有取代短期自由刑之势。分析我国罚金刑适用中存在的问题,借鉴国外相关立法经验加以完善,是确保我国罚金刑在惩治和预防环境犯罪中发挥应有作用的关键。

关键词：罚金刑环境犯罪适用完善

Telmisartan promotes proliferation and differentiation of endothelial progenitor cells via activation of Akt

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Chinese Medical Journal 2014年第1期127卷 109-113页

作者： Cao Zheng Yang Yong Hua xianping wu Ruixia Wang Junfeng Zhou Ming Zhan Zhongqun Chen Pingying Department of Cardiology Taihe Hospital Hubei University of Medicine Shiyan Hube 442000 China

Background Numerous studies have demonstrated that the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-y （PPARy） plays an important role in regulating endothelial progenitor cells （EPC） ***,as a partial agonist of PPARy,may have an effect on the regulation of EPC *** purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of telmisartan on EPC proliferation and *** Peripheral blood derived mononuclear cells containing EPC were isolated from healthy volunteers and then cultured on flbronectin-coated dishes in the presence or absence of *** proliferative activity of EPC was determined by colony forming units （CFU） and MTT *** migratory activity of EPC was assessed by transwell *** expression of endothelial cells （EC） markers,including vascular endothelial cadherin （VE-cadherin）,yon Willebrand factor （vWF） and endothelial nitric oxide synthase （eNOS）,were measured by Western blotting *** Morphological analysis revealed that telmisartan significantly increased the proliferation of EPC and the number of endothelial cell colony forming *** could enhance the expression of the makers of mature EC,including VE-cadherin,vWF,and eNOS,which indicated telmisartan could stimulate EPC to differentiate into mature *** increased the phosphorylation of Akt in *** inhibition of Akt activation significantly attenuated the effect of telmisartan on EPC functions,suggesting that Akt is involved in the stimulatory effect of telmisartan on EPC *** The results of this study demonstrate that telmisartan promotes EPC functions via activation of Akt.

关键词： telmisartan endothelial progenitor cells proliferation differentiation

基于最小加代数理论求解无线Mesh网络端到端延迟上界的方法

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高技术通讯 2010年第3期20卷 233-238页

作者：漆华妹陈志刚吴显平中南大学信息科学与工程学院长沙410083 莫纳什大学信息技术学院

为分析无线Mesh网络(WMNs)的QoS性能,根据最小加代数理论中的随机性网络演算的知识,提出了基于缓存队列共享的WMNs节点框架,然后利用最小加代数理论中的随机性演算理论求解了基于缓存队列共享的WMNs随机性端到端延迟理想上界和近似上界... 详细信息

为分析无线Mesh网络(WMNs)的QoS性能,根据最小加代数理论中的随机性网络演算的知识,提出了基于缓存队列共享的WMNs节点框架,然后利用最小加代数理论中的随机性演算理论求解了基于缓存队列共享的WMNs随机性端到端延迟理想上界和近似上界。对推导出的WMNs端到端延迟上界计算公式进行的实例数值分析证实了统计算方法的有效性。数值分析结果表明,端到端延迟上界随着权重的增加而减少,所得结果对WMNs的QoS控制具有参考意义。

关键词：无线Mesh网络(WMNs) 最小加代数端到端延迟随机性边界