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中国北方干湿过渡区生态系统生产力的气候变化风险评估

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地理学报 2021年第7期76卷 1605-1617页

作者：尹云鹤马丹阳邓浩宇吴绍洪中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室北京100101 河南省发展和改革委员会郑州450018 中国科学院大学北京100049

气候变化风险是人类社会发展面临的严峻挑战,评估识别对气候波动响应敏感且复杂的干湿过渡区生态系统所面临的气候变化风险是一个重要科学问题,对区域气候治理和风险管理具有科学意义。本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的... 详细信息

气候变化风险是人类社会发展面临的严峻挑战,评估识别对气候波动响应敏感且复杂的干湿过渡区生态系统所面临的气候变化风险是一个重要科学问题,对区域气候治理和风险管理具有科学意义。本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多气候模式多情景数据,通过改进和验证Lund-Potsdam-Jena(LPJ)动态全球植被模型,辨识未来不同时段生态系统生产力的气候变化风险等级及其时空分布,明晰气候因子对净初级生产力(NPP)风险的作用特征。结果表明:未来中远期干湿过渡区生态系统生产力面临的气候变化风险面积将可能扩大,风险等级将可能提升,高排放情景下的风险更加严重,主要表现为NPP距平为负,且仍有继续下降的趋势。尤其是典型浓度路径(RCP8.5)情景下,81.85%的地区将可能面临气候变化风险,54.71.将达到高风险。2.71.2.99年,RCP8.5高风险区的NPP距平将达到(-96.00±46.95)gC m^(-2.a^(-1.,NPP变化速率将达到(-3.56±3.40)gC m^(-2.a^(-1.。干湿过渡区东部平原和内蒙古东部草原区预估将可能成为风险主要集中区域,这些地区未来的植被生长将可能受到气候变化的不利影响,增温加剧和干旱程度加重可能是未来气候变化风险的重要驱动因素。

关键词：气候变化风险评估干湿过渡区净初级生产力生态系统

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in china under regional climate scenarios： An analysis based on eco-{1. regions

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Journal of geographical {1. 2014年第2期24卷 237-248页

作者： ZHAO Dongsheng wu {1. institute of Geographic {1. and Natural Resources {2. CAS Beijing 100101 China

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of china＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A{1. B{1.and A1. scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for china＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in china would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.

关键词： climate change natural ecosystem vulnerability regional climate scenarios

Rice re-cultivation in southern china： An option for enhanced climate change resilience in rice pro{1.ction

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Journal of geographical {1. 2013年第1期23卷 67-84页

作者： MA Xin wu {1. LI Yu'e ZHANG Xueyan GAO Qingzhu wu {3. institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture CAAS Beijing 100083 China institute of Geographic {1. and Natural Resources {2. CAS Beijing 100101 China

Rice planted in southern china accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in pro{1.ction, which matters a lot to chinese food security. However, {1.e to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu- tion, rice pro{1.ction suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 1.%-2.%, which compro- mises food pro{1.ction capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal- anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale {1.ring 1.81.2.3., this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice pro{1.ction under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. （1. Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice （early rice hereafter） by 1.5}500 km2. middle season rice （middle rice） by 80,000 km2. and in particular late season rice （late rice） by 2.,000 km2. which accounts for almost 2.% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that {1.e to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice pro{1.cing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. （2. Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice pro{1.cing areas in china. Based on ＇pre-designed＇ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1.81.2.00 and 2.01.2.3.. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for

关键词： climate change adaptation rice seasonal drought

Soil indicators for eco-geographic regionalization:A case study in mid-temperate zone of eastern china

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Journal of geographical {1. 2009年第2期19卷 200-212页

作者：刘晔吴绍洪郑度戴尔阜 institute of Geographic {1. and Natural Resources {2. CASBeijing 100101China Graduate University of {1. academy of {{3. Beijing 100039China

Eco-geographic regional system is formed by division or combination of natural features based on geographic relativity and comparison of major ecosystem factors(including biological and non-biological) and geographic *** previous studies, soil types were often taken as a basis for soil ***, the quantitative characteristics of soil indicators are fitter than the qualitative ones of soil types for modern regionalization *** on the second china's national soil survey data and the provincial soil resource information, by principal analysis and discriminant analysis, this paper discusses the appropriate soil indicators as the complement of eco-geographic region indicator systems and the relationships between these soil indicators and soil types in *** results show that five indicators are used in eco-geographic zonality in mid-temperate zone of eastern china which are organic matter content, cation exchange capacity, pH, clay content and bulk density in *** a regression-kriging approach, the maps of soil indicators in mid-temperate zone of eastern china are compiled with a resolution of {3.km in every grid and the indicative meanings of these soil indicators are *** cluster analysis it is proved that these soil indicators are better than the soil types and soil regionalization in delineating eco-geographic regions.

关键词： eco-geographic zone soil indicators mid-temperate zone of eastern china

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汾沁地区蒸散模拟及其时空变化特征

资源科学 2018年第8期40卷 1658-1671页

作者：韩项尹云鹤吴绍洪邓浩宇中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室北京100101 中国科学院大学北京100049

蒸散是水循环和能量循环的重要过程,也是连接土壤-植被-大气系统的关键纽带。气候变化背景下,蒸散的时空分布研究可为地区水资源合理配置及应对气候变化提供科学基础。本文基于结合GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)数据... 详细信息

蒸散是水循环和能量循环的重要过程,也是连接土壤-植被-大气系统的关键纽带。气候变化背景下,蒸散的时空分布研究可为地区水资源合理配置及应对气候变化提供科学基础。本文基于结合GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)数据的水量平衡方法模拟黄土高原汾沁地区2.03.2.1.年蒸散量,并分析其不同时间尺度的变化特征,结果表明:(1.结合水储量变化的水量平衡方法与忽略水储量变化的水量平衡方法模拟所得蒸散相比,前者时间序列上波动更平稳(变异系数、标准差、极端值分别减少0.1.0}5.50mm,3.2.%),可更精确地反映汾沁地区实际蒸散在年和季节尺度上的变化规律;(2.研究区2.03.2.1.年均蒸散量为53..1.mm,空间分布上由北向南大致增加,年际波动较平稳(变异系数为0.08),其中2.1.年蒸散量最低(478.2.mm),2.1.年蒸散量最高(61..57mm);(3.季节尺度上,夏季平均蒸散量最高(2.3.3.mm),占全年蒸散量的49.67%,波动较平稳;冬季蒸散量最低(1..50mm),离散程度较大;(4)汾沁地区2.03.2.1.年蒸散变化主要受温度、降水的影响,其年际波动主要与降水相关。

关键词：蒸散量 GRACE 水量平衡降水气温时空分布汾沁地区

Effects of longitudinal range-gorge terrain on the eco-geographical pattern in Southwest{1.

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Journal of geographical {1. 2012年第5期22卷 825-842页

作者： PAN Tao wu {1. HE Daming DAI Erfu LIU Yujie institute of Geographic {1. and Natural Resources {2. CAS Beijing 100101 China institute of Tibetan Plateau {1. CAS Beijing 100085 China Asian International Rivers Center Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China

china＇s southwestern special terrain pattern as parallel arrangement between lon- gitudinal towering mountains and deep valleys has significant effects on the differentiation of local natural environment and eco-{1. pattern in this region. The 1.50,000 Digital Elevation Model （DEM） data of Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region （LRGR）, meteorological observation data from the station establishment to {3.1., hydrological observation data, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and Net Primary Productivity （NPP） products of MOD1. and MOD1. as well as 1.1.000,000 vegetation type data were used. Moisture in- dices including surface atmospheric vapor content, precipitation, aridity/humidity index, sur- face runoff, and temperature indices including average temperature, annual accumulated temperature, total solar radiation were selected. Based on ANUSPLIN spline function, GIS spatial analysis, wavelet analysis and landscape pattern analysis, regional differentiation characteristics and main-control factors of hydrothermal pattern, ecosystem structure and function in this region were analyzed to reveal the effects of terrain pattern o~ regional dif- ferentiation of eco-{1. elements. The results show that： influenced by terrain pattern moisture, temperature and heat in LRGR have shown significant distribution cllaracteristics as intermittent weft differences and continuous warp extension. Longitudinal mountains and valleys not only have a north-south corridor function and diffusion effect on the transfer of major surface materials and energy, but also have east-west barrier function and blocking effect. Special topographic pattern has important influences on vegetation landscape diversity and spatiat pattern of ecosystem structure and function, which is the main-control factor on vegetation landscape diversity and spatial distribution of ecosystem. Wavelet variance analysis reflects the spatial anisotropy of environmental factors, NDVI and NPP, while wavele

关键词： Southwest china Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region (LRGR) "corridor-barrier" effect eco-geographical region spatial differentiation

Modeling net primary productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem in{1. from 1.61.to 2.05

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Journal of geographical {1. 2014年第1期24卷 3-17页

作者： YUAN Quanzhi wu {1. ZHAO Dongsheng DAI Erfu CHEN Li ZHANG Lei institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth CAS Beijing 100101 China institute of Geographic {1. and Natural Resources {2. CAS Beijing 100101 China

Net primary productivity （NPP） is the structure and function of the ecosystem. NPP can most important index that represents the be simulated by dynamic global vegetation models （DGVM）, which are designed to represent vegetation dynamics relative to environ- mental change. This study simulated the NPP of{1.＇s ecosystems based on the DGVM Integrated Biosphere Simulator （IBIS） with data on climate, soil, and topography. The appli- cability of IBIS in the NPP simulation of{1.＇s terrestrial ecosystems was verified first. Comparison with other relevant studies indicates that the range and mean value of simula- tions are generally within the limits of observations; the overall pattern and total annual NPP are close to the simulations conducted with other models. The simulations are also close to the NPP estimations based on remote sensing. Validation proved that IBIS can be utilized in the large-scale simulation of NPP in{1.＇s natural ecosystem. We then simulated NPP with climate change data from 1.61.to 2.05, when warming was particularly striking. The following are the results of the simulation. （1. Total NPP varied from 3.61.GtC/yr to 4.2. GtC/yr in the past 45 years and exhibited minimal significant linear increase or decrease. （2. Regional differences in the increase or decrease in NPP were large but exhibited an insignificant overall linear trend. NPP declined in most parts of eastern and central{1., especially in the Loess Plateau. （3. Similar to the fluctuation law of annual NPP, seasonal NPP also displayed an insignificant increase or decrease; the trend line was within the general level. （4） The re- gional differences in seasonal NPP changes were large. NPP declined in spring, summer, and autumn in the Loess Plateau but increased in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： net primary productivity integrated biosphere simulator china

Building a resilient society to reduce natural disaster risks

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Science Bulletin 2020年第21期65卷 1785-1787页

作者： shaohong {1. Jiangbo Gao Binggan Wei Jiquan Zhang Guizhen Guo Jun Wang Haoyu Deng Lulu Liu Shanfeng He Erqi Xu Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China School of Environment Northeast Normal UniversityChangchun 130024China National Disaster Reduction Center Ministry of Emergency ManagementBeijing 100124China School of geographical {1. East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Department of Geography and Tourism Qufu Normal UniversityRizhao 276826China

Natural variation has caused disaster on human society since the human beings appeared on the earth [1.2..Especially,more significant changes in environmental elements have been occurred under global change [3.4],which further increases the stress on social economic [5].The World Economic Forum reported that the annual global death count from natural disasters is about 60,000, or 0.1. of global death.

关键词： global disaster Economic

不同全球变暖目标下中国气候变化风险区域格局

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Journal of geographical {1. 2023年第3期33卷 429-448页

作者：吴绍洪巢清尘高江波刘路路冯爱青邓浩宇左丽媛刘婉露 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China National Climate Center Beijing 100081China

Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the *** climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change,which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change *** study establishes regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming *** of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in china,indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of the risk ***,the risks show significant spatial *** high-risk regions are mainly distributed in East,South,and central china,while the medium-high risk regions are found in North and southwestern *** the 2.warming target,more than {3.4 of china’s area would be at high and medium-high risk,which is more severe than under the {3.5℃warming target,and would extend to the western and northern *** work provides regional risk characteristics of climate change under different global warming targets as a foundation for dealing with climate change.

关键词： regional system of comprehensive climate change risk global warming targets top-down and bottom-up methods spatial pattern risk receptor