检索结果-南通市图书馆

Journal of geographical Sciences 2023年第1期33卷 37-58页

作者：高江波刘路路郭灵辉孙东琪刘婉露侯文娟吴绍洪 Key Laboratory of Land SurfacePattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering Henan Polytechnic UniversityJiaozuo 454000HenanChina Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The black soil region of northeast china is a vital food base and is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in ***,the characteristics of the crop phenological response and the integrated impact of climate and phenological changes on agricultural pro{1.ctivity in the region under the background of climate change are not *** future agricultural risk assessment has been insufficiently quantified and the existing risk level formulation lacks a sound *** on remote sensing pro{1.cts,climate data,and model simulations,this study integrated a logistic function fitting curvature derivation,multiple linear regression,and scenario simulation to investigate crop phenology dynamics and their climate response characteristics in the black soil ***,the compound effects of climate and phenology changes on agricultural pro{1.ction and possible future risks were *** key results were as follows:(1.From 2.00 to 2.1.,2..76%of the black soil region of northeast china experienced a significant delay in the start of the growing season(SOS)and 1..71.of the total area displayed a trend for the end of the growing season(EOS)to arrive *** time lagged effects of the SOS in terms of the crop response to climatic factors were site and climatic parameter *** influence of temperature was widespread and its effect had a longer lag time in general;(2.Both climatic and phenological changes have had a significant effect on the inter-annual variability of crop pro{1.ction,and the predictive ability of both increased by 70.2.%,while the predictive area expanded by 85.04%,as compared to that of climate change in the same period of the growing season;(3.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,there was a risk that the future crop yield would decrease in the north and increase in the south,and the risk area was constantly *** a 2.0℃rise in global temperature,the crop yield of the southern Songnen black soil sub-region would re{1.ce by

关键词： black soil region of northeast china vegetation phenology vegetation productivity lag effect future risk

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：