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How to Estimate the Mortality Risk of COVID-19:A New Approach with a Three-Factor Decomposition

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2023年第4期36卷 1658-1679页

作者： CHENG Bing BAO Qin ZHENG Yangyang LI Yuze WANG Shouyang wu peixin YANG Tao Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China CFS MADISAcademy of Mathematics and Systems ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190China School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Hospital Beijing 100190China

Statistical analysis of COVID-19 mortality is challenging due to its non-stationarity and cross-sectional *** this paper,the authors introduce a unified method to evaluate the fatality rate of COVID-19 across countries,whose method provides more reliable information for cross-country comparison than the traditional case-fatality rate(CFR).It emerges that the new method,the blockwise case-fatality rate(BCFR),varies for different countries and in different *** authors also decompose the COVID-19 fatality data by three factors:1)The virus infection dynamics over population in different countries,2)pure distribution and evolution of instantaneous death rate attributed to different individual’s physical characteristics such as age and health,and 3)individual countries’variations affecting interactions between the virus infection and the instantaneous mortality due to individual’s physical *** on the new three-factor model,the authors obtain six key findings of the COVID-19 fatality *** study suggests that,on average,the estimated instantaneous fatality rate contributes about 57.0%to the global BCFR while the time-varying weight contributes about 41.5%in December *** country-specific contribution of instantaneous fatality rate is significantly higher than that of the time-varying ***,the country-specific characteristics in demographical,social,and economic aspects would affect the relative severity of the disease.

关键词： Blockwise case-fatality rate COVID-19 three-factor decomposition analysis

Union Hospital Leads Way in Medical Development,Focusing on People's Wellbeing

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China News Release 2022年第9期 19-22页

作者： wu peixin 不详

As a pilot for the public hospital reform and a national medical center in China,the Peking Union Medical College Hospital(PUMCH)will celebrate its 101 st anniversary on September *** remained committed to solving medical conundrums,cultivating medical talents and providing highquality medical services for more than a century,the hospital has saved countless lives and contributed significantly to the development of medicine and healthcare in China.

关键词： Medical Focus Hospital

Factors Predicting Progression to Severe COVID-19: A Competing Risk Survival Analysis of 1753 Patients in Community Isolation in wuhan, China

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Engineering 2022年第6期8卷 99-106页

作者： Simiao Chen Hui Sun Mei Heng Xunliang Tong Pascal Geldsetzer Zhuoran Wang peixin wu Juntao Yang Yu Hu Chen Wang Till Bärnighausen Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical College Beijing 100730China Heidelberg Institute of Global Health(HIGH) Faculty of Medicine and University HospitalHeidelberg UniversityHeidelberg 69120Germany Institute of Hematology Union HospitalTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430022China Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Beijing HospitalBeijing 100730China National Center of Gerontology Institute of Geriatric MedicineBeijing 100730China Division of Primary Care and Population Health Department of MedicineStanford UniversityStanfordCA 94305USA Peking Union Medical College Hospital Beijing 100730China State Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Biology Institute of Basic Medical SciencesChinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100730China National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases Beijing 100029China Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Center of Respiratory MedicineChina–Japan Friendship HospitalBeijing 100029China

Most studies of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)progression have focused on the transfer of patients within secondary or tertiary care hospitals from regular wards to intensive care *** is known about the risk factors predicting the progression to severe COVID-19 among patients in community iso-lation,who are either asymptomatic or suffer from only mild to moderate *** a multivari-able competing risk survival analysis,we identify several important predictors of progression to severe COVID-19—rather than to recovery—among patients in the largest community isolation center in wuhan,China from 6 February 2020(when the center opened)to 9 March 2020(when it closed).All patients in community isolation in wuhan were either asymptomatic or suffered from mild to moderate COVID-19 *** performed competing risk survival analysis on time-to-event data from a cohort study of all COVID-19 patients(n=1753)in the isolation *** potential predictors we inves-tigated were the routine patient data collected upon admission to the isolation center:age,sex,respira-tory symptoms,gastrointestinal symptoms,general symptoms,and computed tomography(CT)scan *** main outcomes were time to severe COVID-19 or *** factors predicting progression to severe COVID-19 were:male sex(hazard ratio(HR)=1.29,95%confidence interval(CI)1.04–1.58,p=0.018),young and old age,dyspnea(HR=1.58,95%CI 1.24–2.01,p<0.001),and CT signs of ground-glass opacity(HR=1.39,95%CI 1.04–1.86,p=0.024)and infiltrating shadows(HR=1.84,95%CI 1.22–2.78,p=0.004).The risk of progression was found to be lower among patients with nausea or vomiting(HR=0.53,95%CI 0.30–0.96,p=0.036)and headaches(HR=0.54,95%CI 0.29–0.99,p=0.046).Our results suggest that several factors that can be easily measured even in resource-poor set-tings(dyspnea,sex,and age)can be used to identify mild COVID-19 patients who are at increased risk of disease *** for CT signs of ground-glass opacity and i

关键词： COVID-19 Asymptomatic and mild Community isolation Fangcang shelter hospital Competing risk survival analysis

Correlation between rate-pressure product or pressure-rate quotient and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio in the Chinese older population:The REACTION study

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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第2期137卷 238-240页

作者： Linghuan Wang peixin wu Kang Chen Binqi Li Jie Wang Yiming Mu Department of Endocrinology The First Medical CenterChinese PLA General HospitalNational Key Laboratory of Kidney DiseasesBeijing 100853China Department of Medicine School Nankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Department of Endocrinology Beijing Chao-Yang HospitalBeijing 100020China

To the Editor:Chronic kidney disease(CKD)is a critical health *** elevated urinary albumin-creatinine ratio(UACR)is a marker of impaired renal function and is a key risk factor for cardiovascular *** rate-pressure product(RPP)[1]and pressure rate quotient(PRQ)are widely used as methods to quantify cardiac load and hemodynamic response to exercise in clinical ***,to better predict CKD,it is of great signicance to explore the relationships between RPP or PRQ and UACR.

关键词： urinary impaired creatinine

资产价格泡沫、货币政策和宏观审慎监管:最新研究进展

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上海金融 2011年第5期 53-59页

作者：吴培新中国人民银行上海总部

由本次全球金融危机引发的资产价格泡沫与货币政策、宏观审慎监管之间关系研究的热潮是对以往货币政策和宏观审慎政策理论的一次深刻反思,将有可能导致理论上的重大突破和政策实践上的重大调整。这是当前全球货币政策理论和实践领域的... 详细信息

由本次全球金融危机引发的资产价格泡沫与货币政策、宏观审慎监管之间关系研究的热潮是对以往货币政策和宏观审慎政策理论的一次深刻反思,将有可能导致理论上的重大突破和政策实践上的重大调整。这是当前全球货币政策理论和实践领域的最前沿、最热门的课题。近期国外机构的研究认为:(1)现有的通货膨胀指标不能全面准确反映货币购买力的变化,必然导致资产价格泡沫周期;(2)可以从经济金融变量中提取资产价格泡沫形成的早期预警信息,这为采用'逆风而动'的货币政策策略创造了条件;(3)现行的货币政策框架需要调整,以抑制资产价格泡沫的形成;(4)调整后的货币政策策略仍不足以应对金融失衡,需改进宏观审慎监管,与货币政策一起共同应对金融失衡。国外的研究对我国的政策实践具有借鉴意义。

关键词：资产价格泡沫货币政策宏观审慎监管

作为货币政策调控目标的货币供应量和信贷规模

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上海金融 2008年第6期 38-43页

作者：吴培新中国人民银行上海总部上海200120

货币政策一般认为,作为金融数量指标的货币供应量在货币政策调控中占据着核心地位,而排斥另一重要金融数量指标——信贷规模的作用。本研究试图利用我国自1998年以来的经济金融数据,通过计量方法,比较货币供应量、信贷规模作为核心金融... 详细信息

货币政策一般认为,作为金融数量指标的货币供应量在货币政策调控中占据着核心地位,而排斥另一重要金融数量指标——信贷规模的作用。本研究试图利用我国自1998年以来的经济金融数据,通过计量方法,比较货币供应量、信贷规模作为核心金融指标的适用性,发现:(1)信贷规模和货币供应量各自在不同意义上都是最稳定的,并且,各自与经济活动之间的关系一样规则而稳定,没有证据表明何者更具优势;(2)在同时引入货币供应量和信贷规模时,大大提高了对实体经济的解释能力;(3)货币供应量的变化依存于信贷规模的变化,表明信贷规模在我国经济金融中占据一定地位。这些结论对于理解我国货币政策传导机制是有意义的,表明政策调控时,应同时关注货币供应量和信贷规模这两个指标。

关键词： VAR模型 Granger因果检验货币政策货币供应量信贷规模

主诊医师负责制在我国医改背景下的探索与实践

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中华医院管理杂志 2021年第6期37卷 501-504页

作者：吴沛新王辰中国医学科学院北京协和医院北京100730 中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京100730 北京协和医学院卫生健康管理政策学院 100730

主诊医师负责制作为一种医院人力管理和医疗模式,是公立医院推进精细化管理的重要手段。作者分析了三级查房制度的特点与问题,梳理了主诊医师负责制的实行理念以及可行性,总结了我国主诊医师负责制的探索与实践,并就强化医疗质量管理,... 详细信息

主诊医师负责制作为一种医院人力管理和医疗模式,是公立医院推进精细化管理的重要手段。作者分析了三级查房制度的特点与问题,梳理了主诊医师负责制的实行理念以及可行性,总结了我国主诊医师负责制的探索与实践,并就强化医疗质量管理,充分合理利用医院资源,开展"两个准许",完善主诊医师负责制的配套管理体制等方面对我国主诊医师负责制的实施路径提出建议。

关键词：主诊医师负责制公立医院管理模式改革

卫生政策与管理研究领域科技评价体系的思考和建议

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中华医学科研管理杂志 2023年第4期36卷 259-265页

作者：李涛关健吴沛新北京协和医学院卫生健康管理政策学院 100005 中国医学科学院北京协和医院 100730

目的卫生健康政策与管理及其作为学科的发展,对于医学发展具有重要推动作用,但在实践过程中缺乏科学合理的科技评价体系,本文针对该研究领域科研探索提出专门的评价体系。方法分析学科领域专门解决的问题、任务和独有的研究方法,理论结... 详细信息

目的卫生健康政策与管理及其作为学科的发展,对于医学发展具有重要推动作用,但在实践过程中缺乏科学合理的科技评价体系,本文针对该研究领域科研探索提出专门的评价体系。方法分析学科领域专门解决的问题、任务和独有的研究方法,理论结合实践讨论现有问题。结果根据国家政策导向,提出卫生政策与管理研究领域的科技评价体系,包括原则、具体评价指标及其权重分级和示例。结论卫生政策和管理学既属于社会科学范畴,又具有实践管理的特殊性。因此,其科技评价体系应当反映卫生政策与管理学及其研究者的职责、贡献和特点是非常重要的。

关键词：卫生政策卫生管理科技评价成果评价评价体系

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浅谈家庭绘本阅读中亲子关系的构建

当代家庭教育 2021年第19期 31-32页

作者：吴佩歆福建省厦门市第二实验小学

绘本是幼儿教育的重要素材,在家庭绘本阅读中构建亲子关系,这是对传统绘本阅读模式的一次大胆突破,也是促进幼儿健康发展的重要保障。绘本是最适合幼儿阅读的图书,它可以给阅读一个轻松的起点.图画是一种直观的书面语言信息,具有图解文... 详细信息

绘本是幼儿教育的重要素材,在家庭绘本阅读中构建亲子关系,这是对传统绘本阅读模式的一次大胆突破,也是促进幼儿健康发展的重要保障。绘本是最适合幼儿阅读的图书,它可以给阅读一个轻松的起点.图画是一种直观的书面语言信息,具有图解文字的功效,因此,更容易被幼儿理解和接受。借助图片,采用文字配对的方式建立相应的联系,能达到理解和阅读的效果。良好的绘本阅读能在孩子心中播撒爱的种子,教孩子学会表达,能帮助孩子养成良好的阅读习惯,建立和谐的亲子关系,培养孩子优秀的心理品质。本文简单分析了当前家庭绘本阅读存在的问题,并结合幼儿教育现状,提出了家庭绘本阅读中亲子关系的构建策略,以供参考。

关键词：绘本阅读幼儿教育亲子关系