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Record-breaking summer-autumn drought in southern China in 2022:Roles of tropical sea surface temperature and Eurasian warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 420-431页

作者： Yuepeng HU Botao ZHOU huijun wang Dapeng ZHANG Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China

From summer to autumn in 2022,a severe drought lasted in southern China,posing serious effects on economic growth and ecological *** study explored the atmospheric circulations accounting for this persistent drought *** shows that the drought in southern China during the summer of 2022 was strongly linked to the divergence of water vapor flux and descending motions,which were respectively caused by the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward movement of the East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ).Differently,the atmospheric background responsible for the sustained drought in autumn is manly featured by a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea,which led to decreased moisture and descending motions in southern *** investigation suggests that the rarely strong surface warming over northern Eurasia and the extreme La Nina-like pattern over the tropical Pacific jointly resulted in the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward shift of the EASJ in the summer of 2022,while the cyclonic circulation anomaly prevailing over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in autumn was largely attributed to the extremely negative anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.

关键词： Summer-autumn drought Southern China Tropical sea surface temperature Eurasian warming

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What induced the trend shift of mixed-layer depths in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region in the mid-1980s?

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第1期43卷 11-21页

作者： Shan Liu Jingzhi Su huijun wang Cuijuan Sui Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA Beijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth(MLD)in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region was detected during the 1960–2021 *** trends stopped in mid-1980s,followed by a period of weak *** MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage,the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land,and the central parts of the South Indian *** newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian *** saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region.

关键词： mixed layer depth trend shift Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC) flow axis

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN huijun wang Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze River basin

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN Zhicong YIN Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG huijun wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological ***,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a ***,the Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this ***,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in *** HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan *** HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out ***,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the *** study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze River basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation

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Advanced modeling of the absorption enhancement of black carbon particles in chamber experiments by considering the morphology and coating thickness

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2024年第9期18卷 129-142页

作者： Xiaodong Wei Jianlin Hu Chao Liu Xiaodong Xie Junjie Yin Song Guo Min Hu Jianfei Peng huijun wang Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologySchool of Environmental Science and EngineeringNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(Ministry of Education)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Nansen−Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China East China Air Traffic Management Bureau CAAC Shanghai 200335China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control International Joint Laboratory for Regional Pollution Control(IJRC)(Ministry of Education)College of Environmental Sciences and EngineeringPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Tianjin Key Laboratory of Urban Transport Emission Research&State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Urban Ambient Air Particulate Matter Pollution Prevention and Control College of Environmental Science and EngineeringNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China

Measurements studies have shown that the absorption of radiation by black carbon(BC)increases as the particles ***,there are significant discrepancies between the measured and modeled absorption enhancement(E_(abs)),largely due to the simplifications used in modeling the mixing states and shape *** took advantage of chamber experiments on BC aging and developed an efficient method to resolve the particle shape based on the relationship between the coating fraction(ΔD_(ve)/D_(ve),0)and fractal dimension(D_(f)),which can also reflect the variations of D_(f)during the whole BC aging *** with externally and partly mixed states(0≤ΔD_(ve)/D_(ve),0≤0.5)can be considered to be uniformly distributed with the D_(f)values of 1.8–2.1,whereas the Df values are constrained in the range 2.2–2.8 for fully mixed states(ΔD_(ve)/D_(ve),0>0.5).The morphological parameters(i.e.,the effective density and the dynamic shape factor)were compared with the measured values to verify the simulated *** simulated mean deviations of morphological parameters were smaller than 8%for the method resolving the particle *** applying a realistic shape and refractive index,the mass absorption cross for fully mixed states can be improved by 11%compared with a simplified core–shell *** on our understanding of the influence of D_(f)andΔD_(ve)/D_(ve),0 on E_(abs),we propose a two-stage calibration equation to correct the E_(abs)values estimated by the core–shell model,which reduces the simulation error in the Mie calculation by 6%–14%.

关键词： Black carbon Mixing states Fractal dimension Dynamic shape factor Absorption enhancement

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK huijun wang Ke FAN Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5007Norway Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian Institute for Air Research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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PICOTEES:a privacy-preserving online service of phenotype exploration for genetic-diagnostic variants from Chinese children cohorts

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Journal of Genetics and Genomics 2024年第2期51卷 243-251页

作者： Xinran Dong Yulan Lu Lanting Guo Chuan Li Qi Ni Bingbing Wu huijun wang Lin Yang Songyang Wu Qi Sun Hao Zheng Wenhao Zhou Shuang wang Center for Molecular Medicine Children's Hospital of Fudan UniversityShanghai 201102China Key Laboratory of Birth Defects Children's Hospital of Fudan UniversityShanghai 201102China Department of Bioinformatics Hangzhou Nuowei Information Technology Co.LtdHangzhouZhejiang 310000China The Third Research Institute of the Ministry of Public Security Shanghai 200031China Xiamen Campus of Children's Hospital of Fudan University XiamenFujian 361006China Institutes for Systems Genetics West China HospitalChengduSichuan 610041China Shanghai Putuo People's Hospital Tongji UniversityShanghai 200060China

The growth in biomedical data resources has raised potential privacy concerns and risks of genetic information leakage. For instance, exome sequencing aids clinical decisions by comparing data through web services, but it requires significant trust between users and providers. To alleviate privacy concerns, the most commonly used strategy is to anonymize sensitive data. Unfortunately, studies have shown that anonymization is insufficient to protect against reidentification attacks. Recently, privacy-preserving technologies have been applied to preserve application utility while protecting the privacy of biomedical data. We present the PICOTEES framework, a privacy-preserving online service of phenotype exploration for genetic-diagnostic variants (https://***:3000/). PICOTEES enables privacy-preserving queries of the phenotype spectrum for a single variant by utilizing trusted execution environment technology, which can protect the privacy of the user's query information, backend models, and data, as well as the final results. We demonstrate the utility and performance of PICOTEES by exploring a bioinformatics dataset. The dataset is from a cohort containing 20,909 genetic testing patients with 3,152,508 variants from the Children's Hospital of Fudan University in China, dominated by the Chinese Han population (>99.9%). Our query results yield a large number of unreported diagnostic variants and previously reported pathogenicity.

关键词： Privacy protecti on Rare diseases in children Genetic testing Web system Trusted executi on envir onment

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Traditional Meiyu-Baiu has been suspended by global warming

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National Science Review 2024年第07期 126-134页

作者： Zhicong Yin Xiaolei Song Botao Zhou Wenhao Jiang Huopo Chen huijun wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

More than 1000 years, the Meiyu–Baiu have shaped the uniqueness of natural resources, civilization and culture in the Yangtze River Basin of China and the main islands of Japan. In recent decades, frequent rainstorms and droughts have seemingly diminished the misty features of traditional Meiyu–Baiu ***, there is still no consensus on whether their traditional nature is suspended. In this study, we quantitatively demonstrate that the Meiyu–Baiu almost completely lost their traditional features during 1961–2023, ～80% of which can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, in a warmer future,the traditional Meiyu–Baiu will be more unlikely to appear. This study underscores the urgency in adapting to climate shift because destructive extremes are measurably taking the place of mild and maternal rains.

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广东公共图书馆事业高质量发展的探索、经验与展望

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图书馆论坛 2024年第3期44卷 66-70,151页

作者：王惠君广东省立中山图书馆广东图书馆学会

在文化强国与文化强省战略、公共文化服务高质量发展、《公共图书馆法》实施背景下,2018—2022年5年间,广东公共图书馆事业抓住新机遇,开展新探索。文章概述广东公共图书馆事业高质量发展实践以及取得的成绩,总结公共图书馆事业高质量... 详细信息

在文化强国与文化强省战略、公共文化服务高质量发展、《公共图书馆法》实施背景下,2018—2022年5年间,广东公共图书馆事业抓住新机遇,开展新探索。文章概述广东公共图书馆事业高质量发展实践以及取得的成绩,总结公共图书馆事业高质量发展的“广东经验”,并对广东公共图书馆事业高质量发展进行了展望。广东公共图书馆人要深刻认识到图书馆的历史使命和社会职责,坚持以人民为中心,以高质量发展为主题,守正创新,继续做好全民阅读服务,提升公共图书馆在精神文明建设、知识服务、智库支撑、激活智慧、支持创新上的服务价值,广东公共图书馆事业必将迎来新一轮大发展大繁荣。

关键词：公共图书馆事业高质量发展广东经验

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末次间冰期全球气候瞬变模拟与平衡态模拟的对比研究

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地学前缘 2024年第1期31卷 486-499页

作者：江南萱燕青王会军中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢南森国际研究中心北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京210044

采用水平分辨率约1°的地球系统模式CESM,本研究开展了末次间冰期129~124 ka的瞬变模拟试验(TGCS-LIG)和127 ka的平衡态切片模拟试验(127ka-LIG),量化了数值试验方案对模拟的末次间冰期全球气候的影响,以期加深理解造成模拟结果与重建... 详细信息

采用水平分辨率约1°的地球系统模式CESM,本研究开展了末次间冰期129~124 ka的瞬变模拟试验(TGCS-LIG)和127 ka的平衡态切片模拟试验(127ka-LIG),量化了数值试验方案对模拟的末次间冰期全球气候的影响,以期加深理解造成模拟结果与重建数据之间分歧的可能原因。TGCS-LIG试验和127ka-LIG试验均表明:末次间冰期全球年平均温度较工业革命前低,降温幅度分别为0.4℃和0.2℃;在夏季,北半球升温(1.2/1.5℃),而南半球降温(0.9/0.7℃)。就年降水而言,末次间冰期北半球季风区降水增加,南半球季风区降水减少,但存在显著的区域差异。与重建数据相比,TGCS-LIG试验和127ka-LIG试验的模拟-数据符号一致性与均方根误差均相近,但127ka-LIG试验模拟效果略好。TGCS-LIG试验与重建的全球年平均(夏季)海温符号一致性为34.9%~44.7%(36.8%~42.5%),较127ka-LIG偏差约2%~4%(约5%~7%);均方根误差为2.9~3.2℃(2.9~3.4℃),较127ka-LIG试验偏差小于约0.1℃。对于全球年平均降水,TGCS-LIG试验与重建数据的符号一致性为63.8%,略高于127ka-LIG试验(63.1%)。相较于模拟和重建之间的绝对偏差而言,数值试验方案对于改进两者分歧的作用十分有限。需要注意的是,TGCS-LIG试验表明:末次间冰期全球关键气候模态的年际变率在129~124 ka间存在显著的内部变化,其中ENSO年际变率随时间逐渐增强,北半球环状模与南半球环状模的年际变率呈现千年尺度波动的特征;而127ka-LIG试验无法刻画气候模态的时间演变特征。总之,本文研究结果表明,采用平衡模拟试验或是瞬变模拟试验并不是造成末次间冰期模拟-数据分歧的主要原因,但开展高时空分辨率的瞬变模拟试验对研究末次间冰期气候变率具有重要的科学价值。

关键词：末次间冰期模拟-重建对比瞬变试验平衡态试验

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