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Projected impacts of climate change on the habitat of Xerophyta species in Africa

Plant Diversity 2024年第1期46卷 91-100页

作者： Vincent Okelo Wanga Boniface KNgarega Millicent Akinyi Oulo Elijah Mbandi Mkala veronicah mutele ngumbau Guy Eric Onjalalaina Wyclif Ochieng Odago Consolata Nanjala Clintone Onyango Ochieng Moses Kirega Gichua Robert Wahiti Gituru Guang-Wan Hu CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture Wuhan Botanical GardenChinese Academy of SciencesWuhan 430074China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Sino-Africa Joint Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesWuhan 430074China Centre for Integrative Conservation Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical GardenChinese Academy of SciencesMenglun 666303China Botany Department Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and TechnologyNairobiKenya East African Herbarium National Museums of KenyaP.O.Box 451660-0100NairobiKenya

Climate change poses a serious long-term threat to *** effectively reduce biodiversity loss,conservationists need to have a thorough understanding of the preferred habitats of species and the variables that affect their ***,predicting the impact of climate change on speciesappropriate habitats may help mitigate the potential threats to biodiversity ***,a monocotyledonous genus of the family Velloziaceae is native to mainland Africa,Madagascar,and the Arabian *** key drivers of Xerophyta habitat distribution and preference are *** 308 species occurrence data and eight environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to determine the potential distribution of six Xerophyta species in Africa under past,current and future climate change *** results showed that the models had a good predictive ability(Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistics values for all SDMs were more than 0.902),indicating high accuracy in forecasting the potential geographic distribution of Xerophyta *** main bioclimatic variables that impacted potential distributions of most Xerophyta species were mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9)and precipitation of the warmest quarter(Bio18).According to our models,tropical Africa has zones of moderate and high suitability for Xerophyta taxa,which is consistent with the majority of documented species *** habitat suitability of the existing range of the Xerophyta species varied based on the climate scenario,with most species experiencing a range loss greater than the range gain regardless of the climate *** projected spatiotemporal patterns of Xerophyta species help guide recommendations for conservation efforts.

关键词： Africa Climate change MaxEnt model Potential suitable distribution Velloziaceae Xerophyta

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