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Capacity-need gap in hospital resources for varying mitigation and containment strategies in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 608-621页

作者： veenapani rajeev verma Anuraag Saini Sumirtha Gandhi Umakant Dash Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya Humanities and Social Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Madras600036ChennaiIndia Vantage Research 600004ChennaiIndia Boston University 02215MassachusettsUSA

Background:Due to uncertainties encompassing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19,mathematical models informing the trajectory of disease are being proposed throughout the *** pandemic is also characterized by surge in hospitalizations which has overwhelmed even the most resilient health ***,it is imperative to assess health system preparedness in tandem with need projections for comprehensive ***:We attempted this study to forecast the need for hospital resources for one year period and correspondingly assessed capacity and tipping points of Indian health system to absorb surges in need due to ***:We employed age-structured deterministic SEIR model and modified it to allow for testing and isolation capacity to forecast the need under varying *** for documented cases were made for varying degree of containment and mitigation ***,data on health resources was collated from various government ***,we computed daily turnover of each of these resources which was then adjusted for proportion of cases requiring mild,severe and critical care to arrive at maximum number of COVID-19 cases manageable by health care system of ***:Our results revealed pervasive deficits in the capacity of public health system to absorb surge in need during peak of ***,model suggests that continuing strict lockdown measures in India after mid-May 2020 would have been ineffective in suppressing total infections *** testing to 1,500,000 tests per day during projected peak(mid-September)under social-distancing measures and current test to positive rate of 9.7%would lead to more documented cases(60,000,000 to 90,000,000)culminating to surge in demand for hospital resources.A minimum allocation of 13x,70x and 37x times more beds for mild cases,ICU beds and mechanical ventilators respectively would be required to commensurate with need under that ***

关键词： Capacity-need gap Numerical model COVID-19 Policy India

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