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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE tore furevik Huijun WANG Ke FAN Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5007Norway Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian Institute for Air Research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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Air–Sea Coupling Enhances the East Asian Winter Climate Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第12期32卷 1647-1659页

作者： ZHOU Xiaomin LI Shuanglin LUO Feifei GAO Yongqi tore furevik Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Joint Center for Global Change Studies University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research University of Bergen

A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact of air-sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. A regional coupling strategy is applied, in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies, and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation, but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison, the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus, air-sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification, an additional set of AGCM experiments, forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies, is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus, tropical air-sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.

关键词： amplification Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation air-sea coupling feedback East Asian winter climate

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Weaker connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Indian summer rainfall since the mid-1990s

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第1期11卷 37-43页

作者： LUO Fei-Fei LI Shuanglin tore furevik Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Atmospheric Science China University of Geosciences Wuhan China Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research University of Bergen Bergen Norway

Previous studies have shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） can play an important role in modulating the variabilityoflndian summer monsoon rainfall （ISMR） over a 50-60-yr timescale. A significant positive correlation between the AMO and ISMR is found both in observations and models. However, instrumental records show that the relationship becomes non-significant or even of opposite sign after the mid-1990s, suggesting a weakening of the AMO-ISMR connection. The mechanism for the breakdown of the AMO-ISMR connection is investigated in the present work, and the results suggest that a substantial warming in the Indian-tropical western Pacific Ocean plays a role. The warming weakens the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature between Eurasia and the indian Ocean, and reduces the meridional sea level pressure gradient between the Indian Subcontinent and Indian Ocean, weakening the Indian summer monsoon. Thus, warming in the Indian-tropical western Pacific Ocean seems responsible for the weakened connection between the AMO and ISM.

关键词： Atlantic MultidecadalOscillation Indian summerrainfall connection multidecadal variation

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Teleconnection between Sea Ice in the Barents Sea in June and the Silk Road,Pacific–Japan and East Asian Rainfall Patterns in August

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第1期35卷 52-64页

作者： Shengping HE Yongqi GAO tore furevik Huijun WANG Fei LI Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5006Norway Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China NILU--Norwegian Institute for Air Research Kjeller 2007Norway

In contrast to previous studies that have tended to focus on the influence of the total Arctic sea-ice cover on the East Asian summer tripole rainfall pattern, the present study identifies the Barents Sea as the key region where the June sea-ice variability exerts the most significant impacts on the East Asian August tripole rainfall pattern, and explores the teleconnection mechanisms involved. The results reveal that a reduction in June sea ice excites anomalous upward air motion due to strong near-surface thermal forcing, which further triggers a meridional overturning wave-like pattern extending to *** downward motion therefore forms over the Caspian Sea, which in turn induces zonally oriented overturning circulation along the subtropical jet stream, exhibiting the east–west Rossby wave train known as the Silk Road pattern. It is suggested that the Bonin high, a subtropical anticyclone predominant near South Korea, shows a significant anomaly due to the eastward extension of the Silk Road pattern to East Asia. As a possible descending branch of the Hadley cell, the Bonin high anomaly ultimately triggers a meridional overturning, establishing the Pacific–Japan pattern. This in turn induces an anomalous anticyclone and cyclone pair over East Asia, and a tripole vertical convection anomaly meridionally oriented over East Asia. Consequently, a tripole rainfall anomaly pattern is observed over East Asia. Results from numerical experiments using version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model support the interpretation of this chain of events.

关键词： sea-ice reduction tripole rainfall Silk Road pattern Pacific–Japan pattern teleconnection

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Simulation by CMIP5 Models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Its Climate Impacts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第12期33卷 1329-1342页

作者： Zhe HAN Feifei LUO Shuanglin LI Yongqi GAO tore furevik Lea SVENDSEN Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen 5006 Norway Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and BjerknesCentre for Climate Research Bergen 5007 Norway

This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the ＂Pre-industrial＂ experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models＇＂Historical＂ simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their ＂Pre-industrial＂ simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.

关键词： Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation CMIP5 internal climate variability climate impacts

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What Determines the Amplitude of ENSO Events?

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第2期6卷 90-96页

作者： WANG Yu-Xing YANG Hai-Jun tore furevik Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies (LaCOAS) School of Physics Peking University Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research University in Bergen

In this paper, the dynamic effect of oceanic upwelling on the intensity of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscilla tion （ENSO） is studied using a simple coupled model （Zebiak-Cane Model）. The term balance analysis in the temperature variability equation shows that the anomalous upwelling of the mean vertical temperature gradient and the mean advection of the anomalous meridional tem perature gradient are the two of most important factors that determine the intensity of ENSO events, in which the ＂vertical oceanic heat flux＂ in the eastern equatorial Pa cific （EEP） is the primary influencing factor. The lag cor relation between ＂vertical heat flux （VHF）＂ and ENSO intensity shows that the highest correlation occurs when the former leads the latter by one to two weeks. The VHF is positively correlated with the background thermocline strength in the EEP, and an increase of both could result in strong ENSO variability. Comparison of the forced and coupled experiments suggests that the coupled process can affect both the intensity and freauencv of ENSO.

关键词： ENSO amplitude vertical heat flux thermo-cline strength

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A New Method for Predicting the Decadal Component of Global SST

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 521-526页

作者： LUO Fei-Fei LI Shuanglin GAO Yong-Qi tore furevik Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Bergen Norway Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research University of Bergen Bergen Norway

A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades 2011-2040. The internal decadal component is derived by harmonic wave expansion analyses based on the quasiperiodic evolution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as obtained from observational SST datasets. Furthermore, the external decadal component induced by anthropogenic forcing is assessed with a second-order fit based on the ensemble of projected SSTs in the experiments with multiple coupled climate models associated with the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) under the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. A validation for the years from 2002 to 2010 based on a comparison of the predicted and the observed SST and their spatial correlation, as well as the root mean square error (RMSE), suggests that the approach is reasonable overall. In addition, the predicted results over the 50°S-50°N global band, the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the North and the South Atlantic Ocean are presented.

关键词： decadal climate prediction internal decadal variability anthropogenic forcing SST

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Teleconnection between Winter Arctic Oscillation and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon in the Pre-Industry Simulation of a Coupled Climate Model

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 349-354页

作者： CUI Xue-Dong GAO Yong-Qi GONG Dao-Yi GUO Dong tore furevik Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

A 600-year pre-industrial simulation with Bergen Climate Model(BCM)Version 2 is used to investigate the linkage between winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the Southeast Asian summer monsoon(SEASM)on the inter-decadal *** results indicate an in-phase relationship between the AO and SEASM with periods of approximately 16–32 and 60–80 *** the positive phase of winter AO,an anomalous surface anti-cyclonic atmosphere circulation appears over North Pacific in *** corresponding anomalies in ocean circulation and surface heat flux,particularly the latent and sensible heat flux,resemble a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-like sea surface temperature(SST)*** AO-associated PDO-like winter SST can persist into summer and can therefore lead to inter-decadal variability of summer monsoon rainfall in East and Southeast Asia.

关键词： Southeast Asian summer monsoon Arctic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation inter-decadal timescale sea surface temperature

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Arctic Sea Ice and Eurasian Climate:A Review

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第1期32卷 92-114页

作者： GAO Yongqi SUN Jianqi LI Fei HE Shengping Stein SANDVEN YAN Qing ZHANG Zhongshi Katja LOHMANN Noel KEENLYSIDE tore furevik SUO Lingling Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Uni Research/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Geophysical Institute University of Bergen/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian ***, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including： the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response（e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature） to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Eurasian climate Arctic Oscillation review

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Impacts of the extratropical North Pacific on boreal summer Arctic circulation

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大气和海洋科学快报:英文版 2023年第5期16卷 113-120页

作者： Shengping He tore furevik Huijun Wang Fei Li Mingkeng Duan Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center BergenNorway Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBejingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina

北极夏季大气环流的一个显着特征是以北冰洋为中心的异常反气旋环流,与北极增暖存在紧密的联系.先前的研究已将其形成的潜在机制与早春欧亚融雪,热带太平洋海表温度异常联系起来.本研究发现北极夏季反气旋环流异常与春季副热带北太平洋... 详细信息

北极夏季大气环流的一个显着特征是以北冰洋为中心的异常反气旋环流,与北极增暖存在紧密的联系.先前的研究已将其形成的潜在机制与早春欧亚融雪,热带太平洋海表温度异常联系起来.本研究发现北极夏季反气旋环流异常与春季副热带北太平洋海表温度异常(SSTA)存在显着联系,表明副热带北太平洋与北极之间存在遥相关.该SSTA的特点是北太平洋中纬度地区有暖的SSTA,,周围有明显的冷SSTA,类似于太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的负位相,但热带地区没有明显的信号(本研究称之为类负位相PDO),5月份,这种类负位相PDO可以激发从白令海传播到北极的罗斯贝波,导致北极出现反气旋环流异常.这种反气旋环流异常可以持续到夏季.同时,这种类负位相PDO的SSTA可以持续到夏季,并在夏季引起白令海上空的低压异常.这种低层的低压异常会导致异常的上升运动,并引起高层的辐散异常,从而进一步加剧夏季北极对流层上层的反气旋环流异常。这种反气旋环流异常可迫使北极上空出现异常绝热下沉运动,导致北极出现显著的绝热加热.于是,北极上空出现显著的暖异常,其暖中心位于北极对流层中部。数值模拟试验证实了5月份类负位相PDO的SSTA与夏季北极反气旋环流异常之间的联系.

关键词：北极增暖北太平洋遥相关 Eady增长率波弗特海 WACCM

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