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Increased glacier melt enhances future extreme floods in the southern Tibetan Plateau

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 431-441页

作者： He SUN Tan-Dong YAO Feng-Ge SU tinghai ou Zhihua HE Guoqiang TANG Deliang CHEN State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden Centre for Hydrology University of SaskatchewanSaskatoon S7N 1K2Canada Climate and Global Dynamics National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder CO 80307USA

Mountainous areas are of special hydrological concern because topography and atmospheric conditions can result in large and sudden floods,posing serious risks to water-related safety in neighbouring *** Yarlung Zangbo(YZ)River basin is the largest river basin on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but how floods will discharge in this basin and how the role of glacier melt in floods will change throughout the 21st-century under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)remain ***,we comprehensively address this scientific question based on a well-validated large-scale glacier-hydrology *** results indicate that extreme floods was projected to increase in the YZ basin,and was mainly reflected in increased duration(4–10 d per decade)and intensity(153–985 m^(3)s^(−1)per decade).Glacier runoff was projected to increase(2–30 mm per decade)throughout the 21st-century,but there was also a noticeable decrease or deceleration in glacier runoff growth in the late first half of the century under the SSP2-4.5,and in the latter half of the century under the *** melt was projected to enhance the duration(12%–23%)and intensity(15%–21%)of extreme floods under both SSPs,which would aggravate the impact of future floods on the socioeconomics of the YZ *** effect was gradually overwhelmed by precipitation-induced floods from glacier areas to YZ *** study takes the YZ basin as a projection framework example to help enrich the understanding of future flood hazards in basins affected by rainfall-or meltwater across the TP,and to help policy-makers and water managers develop future plans.

关键词： floods glacier Tibetan

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气候变化的灾害效应与科学挑战

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科学通报 2024年第2期69卷 286-300页

作者：王岩王昊崔鹏陈德亮唐金波欧廷海郝建盛王姣张国涛雷雨伍纯昊中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室北京100101 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室成都610299 Department of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

自然灾害是地球系统各圈层相互作用最剧烈的一种表现形式,对人类社会有着深远的影响.气候变化导致的温度升高和降雨增多对灾害发生的水源、物源、能量等条件都有所影响,致使自然灾害出现新特点和新趋势,灾害风险急剧增加;自然灾害间的... 详细信息

自然灾害是地球系统各圈层相互作用最剧烈的一种表现形式,对人类社会有着深远的影响.气候变化导致的温度升高和降雨增多对灾害发生的水源、物源、能量等条件都有所影响,致使自然灾害出现新特点和新趋势,灾害风险急剧增加;自然灾害间的相互作用变强,促使复合灾害和级联灾害风险均有明显上升.本文归纳总结了自然灾害在强度、频率、持续时间、触发时间与位置、规模或影响范围等方面的变化规律,阐述其对气候变化的响应机制,提出气候变化灾害风险的五大科学挑战,包括:气候变化驱动的圈层相互作用和内外动力耦合致灾机制、跨时空尺度灾害发育规律、极端事件信息感知与数据驱动的风险判识、灾害动力学与风险演化规律、灾害风险管理与韧性社会构建.积极主动地应对这些挑战有助于深化对地球系统的科学理解,适应全球变化,减小灾害风险.

关键词：气候变化自然灾害灾害效应响应机制科学挑战

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The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on the Summer Hydrological Cycle in the Haihe River Basin of China

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第4期25卷 517-526页

作者： ou tinghai LIU Yanxiang CHEN Deliang David RAYNER ZHANG Qiang GAO Ge XIANG Weiguo School of Geology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg GSteborg 40530 Sweden National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Science ~ Technology Chengdu 610225 China

In this study, we focus on changes in three important components of the hydrological-cycle in the Haihe River basin （HRB） during 1957-2005： precipitation （Prep）, actual evaportranspiration （ETa）, and pan evaporation （PE）-a measure of potential evaporation. The changes in these components have been evaluated in relation to changes in the East Asian summer monsoon. Summer Prep for the whole basin has decreased significantly during 1957-2005. Recent weakening of the convergence of the integrated water vapor flux, in combination with a change from cyclonic-like large-scale circulation conditions to anti-cyclonic-like conditions, led to the decrease in the summer Prep in the HRB. ETa is positively correlated with Prep on the interannual timescale. On longer timescales, however, ETa is less dependent on Prep or the large-scale circulation. We found negative trends in ETa when the ERA40 reanalysis data were used, but positive trends in ETa when the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used. PE declined during the period 1957-2001. The declining of PE could be explained by a combination of declining solar radiation and declining surface wind. However, the declining solar radiation may itself be related to the weakening winds, due to weaker dispersion of pollution. If so, the downward trend of PE may be mainly caused by weakening winds.

关键词： hydrological cycle runoff Lamb-Jenkinson classification circulation Haihe River basin (HRB)

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Spatial Interpolation of Daily Precipitation in China:1951-2005

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第6期27卷 1221-1232页

作者： Deliang CHEN tinghai ou Lebing GONG ChongYu XU 李维京 Chang—Hoi HO 钱维宏 Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Sweden School of Geography Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 Department of Earth Sciences Uppsala University Sweden Department of Geosciences University of Oslo Norway Laboratory for Climate Studies/National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100029 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National University Korea School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871

Climate research relies heavily on good quality instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded climate data for China. This is especially true for high-resolution daily data. This work, focuses on identifying an accurate method to produce gridded daily precipitation in China based on the observed data at 753 stations for the period 1951-2005. Five interpolation methods, including ordinary nearest neighbor, local polynomial, radial basis function, inverse distance weighting, and ordinary kriging, have been used and compared. Cross-validation shows that the ordinary kriging based on seasonal semi-variograms gives the best performance, closely followed by the inverse distance weighting with a power of 2. Finally the ordinary kriging is chosen to interpolate the station data to a 18 km× 18 km grid system covering the whole country. Precipitation for each 0.5°×0.5° latitude-longitude block is then obtained by averaging the values at the grid nodes within the block. Owing to the higher station density in the eastern part of the country, the interpolation errors are much smaller than those in the west （west of 100°E）. Excluding 145 stations in the western region, the daily, monthly, and annual relative mean absolute errors of the interpolation for the remaining 608 stations are 74%, 29%, and 16%, respectively. The interpolated daily precipitation has been made available on the internet for the scientific community.

关键词： daily precipitation spatial interpolation ordinary kriging gridded data China

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