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skewness of subsurface ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific based on assimilated data

Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2009年第3期27卷 600-606页

作者：苏京志张人禾 LI tim 容新尧 Chinese Academy of Meteorological sciences Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii at Manoa

The skewness of subsurface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows a significant asymmetry between the east and west. A positive temperature skewness appears in the equatorial eastern Pacific, while the temperature skewness in the western and central Pacific is primarily negative. There is also an asymmetry of the temperature skewness above and below the climatological mean therrnocline in the central and western Pacific. A positive skewness appears below the thermocline, but the skewness is negative above the thermocline. The distinctive vertical asymmetry of the temperature skewness is argued to be attributed to the asymmetric temperature response to upward and downward thermocline displacement in the presence of the observed upper-ocean vertical thermal structure. Because of positive （negative） second derivative of temperature with respect to depth below （above） the thermocline, an upward and a downward shift of the thermocline with equal displacement would lead to a negative temperature skewness above the thermocline but a positive skewness below the thermocline. In the far eastern equatorial Pacific, the thermocline is close to the base of the mixed layer, the shape of the upper-ocean vertical temperature profile cannot be kept. Positive skewness appears in both below the thermocline and above the thermocline in the far eastern basin. Over the central and eastern Pacific, the anomalies of the subsurface waters tend to entrain into the surface mixed layer （by climatological mean upwelling） and then affect the ssT. Hence, the positive （negative） subsurface skewness in the far eastern （central） Pacific may favor positive （negative） ssT skewness, which is consistent with the observational fact that more La Nina （EI Nino） occur in the central （eastern） Pacific. The present result implies a possible new paradigm for EI Nino and La Nina amplitude asymmetry in the eastern Pacific.

关键词： skewness subsurface temperature equatorial ocean

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A review of the resistome within the digestive tract of livestock

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Journal of Animal science and Biotechnology 2022年第3期13卷 642-661页

作者： Tao Ma tim A.McAllister Le Luo Guan Key laboratory of Feed Biotechnology of the Ministry of Agriculture Institute of Feed ResearchChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Agricultural Food and Nutritional ScienceUniversity of AlbertaT6G2P5EdmontonABCanada Lethbridge Research and Development Centre LethbridgeAB T1J 4P4Canada

Antimicrobials have been widely used to prevent and treat infectious diseases and promote growth in food-production ***,the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance poses a huge threat to public and animal health,especial y in less developed countries where food-producing animals often intermingle with *** limit the spread of antimicrobial resistance from food-production animals to humans and the environment,it is essential to have a comprehensive knowledge of the role of the resistome in antimicrobial resistance(AMR),The resistome refers to the col ection of al antimicrobial resistance genes associated with microbiota in a given *** dense microbiota in the digestive tract is known to harbour one of the most diverse resistomes in *** of the resistome in the digestive tract of humans and animals are increasing exponential y as a result of advancements in next-generation sequencing and the expansion of bioinformatic resources/tools to identify and describe the *** this review,we outline the various tools/bioinformatic pipelines currently available to characterize and understand the nature of the intestinal resistome of swine,poultry,and *** then propose future research directions including analysis of resistome using long-read sequencing,investigation in the role of mobile genetic elements in the expression,function and transmission of *** review outlines the current knowledge and approaches to studying the resistome in food-producing animals and sheds light on future strategies to reduce antimicrobial usage and control the spread of AMR both within and from livestock production systems.

关键词： Antimicrobial resistance Antimicrobial resistance gene Digestive tract Food-producing animal Metagenomic sequencing Resistome

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Impact of ENsO on MJO Pattern Evolution over the Maritime Continent

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第6期34卷 1151-1166页

作者： Jia LIU Yuqin DA tim LI Feng HU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiiHonoluluHI 96822USA

The modulation of Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO)pattern evolution over the Maritime Continent(MC)by El Nino–southern Oscillation(ENsO)was investigated through a combined observational and modeling *** convective branches shifted south of the equator over the MC during eastern Pacific(EP)El Nino winters,while it became relatively symmetric about the equator during La Ni?a *** impact of central Pacific(CP)El Ninos to MJO pattern,on the other hand,is not statistically *** cause of the distinctive MJO pattern evolutions is likely attributed to the ENsO-induced changes of the background moisture and vertical shear over the *** numerical experiments with a 2.5-layer model were carried out,and the result revealed that the background moisture change played a dominant *** observational diagnosis of column-integrated moist static energy(MsE)budgets was further *** result indicated that the MJO pattern difference was attributed to the MsE tendency asymmetry in front of MJO convection between EP El Nino and La Ni?a,caused by the advection of the mean MsE by anomalous meridional *** difference in the MJO-scale anomalous meridional wind was ultimately controlled by the change of the background meridional moisture gradient associated with EP El Nino and La Ni?a.

关键词： Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO) El Nino-southern Oscillation(ENsO) Maritime Continent(MC) moist static energy(MsE)budget

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Implications from subseasonal Prediction skills of the Prolonged Heavy snow Event over southern China in Early 2008

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1873-1888页

作者： Keyue ZHANG Juan LI Zhiwei ZHU tim LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China state Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LAsG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric sciences University of Hawaii at ManoaHonolulu 96822Hawaii

An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHsE)occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many *** what extent any dynamical model can predict such an extreme event is crucial for disaster prevention and ***,we found the three s2s models(ECMWF,CMA1.0 and CMA2.0)can predict the distribution and intensity of precipitation and surface air temperature(sAT)associated with the PHsE at 10-day lead and 10−15-day lead,*** success is attributed to the models’capability in forecasting the evolution of two important low-frequency systems in the tropics and mid-latitudes[the persistent siberian High and the suppressed phase of the Madden−Julian Oscillation(MJO)],especially in the ECMWF ***,beyond the 15-day lead,the three models show almost no skill in forecasting this *** bias in capturing the two critical circulation systems is responsible for the low skill in forecasting the 2008 PHsE beyond the 15-day *** one hand,the models cannot reproduce the persistence of the siberian High,which results in the underestimation of negative sAT anomalies over southern *** the other hand,the models cannot accurately capture the suppressed convection of the MJO,leading to weak anomalous southerly and moisture transport,and therefore the underestimation of precipitation over southern *** singular Value Decomposition(sVD)analyses between the critical circulation systems and sAT/precipitation over southern China shows a robust historical relation,indicating the fidelity of the predictability sources for both regular events and extreme events(e.g.,the 2008 PHsE).

关键词： prolonged heavy snow event s2s prediction models subseasonal prediction skill MJO siberian High

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Impacts of steering Flows with Different timescales on the Track of Typhoon sanba(2012)

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第2期35卷 343-357页

作者： Qiao LIU Melinda PENG Weican ZHOU tim LI Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Colorado Colorado SpringColorado 80918USA International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA

Typhoon sanba(2012),the strongest tropical cyclone(TC)of the year worldwide,moved northward almost along130°longitude during its lifetime and passed through different background flows from low to high *** steering flows with different timescales for sanba are retrieved by using the NCEP reanalysis data with the total wind field separated into:a mean state,an interannual component,an intraseasonal component,and a synoptic *** analysis indicates that the intraseasonal timescale wave train(WT)with east–west oriented circulations made the largest contribution to the movement of *** effects of the environmental steering with different timescales on sanba’s movement are investigated with numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)*** the control simulation,total fields from the NCEP reanalysis are used as initial and boundary conditions,and the northward motion of sanba is well *** sensitivity experiments,each of the intraseasonal and interannual components is removed one at a *** steering vectors associated with these timescales can explain their influences on the movement of sanba in the *** budget analyses indicate that the horizontal vorticity advection made the largest contribution to the movement of the storm.

关键词： intraseasonal interannual mean state steering flow

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Optimized Hot spot and Directional Distribution Analyses Characterize the spatiotemporal Variation of Large Wildfires in Washington,UsA,1970-2020

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International Journal of Disaster Risk science 2022年第1期13卷 139-150页

作者： Kevin Zerbe Chris Polit stacey McClain tim Cook Washington Emergency Management Division Camp MurrayTacomaWA 98430USA

spatiotemporal analysis of fire activity is vital for determining why wildfires occur where they do,assessing wildfire risks,and developing locally relevant wildfire risk reduction *** various spatial statistical methods,we determined hot spots of large wildfires(>100 acres)in Washington,the United states,and mapped spatiotemporal variations in large wildfire activity from 1970 to *** results found that all hot spots are located east of the crest of the Cascade *** spatiotemporal analysis found that the geographic area wherein most of the state’s acres burned has shrunk considerably since 1970 and has become concentrated over the north-central portion of the state over *** concentration of large wildfire activity in north-central Washington was previously unquantified and may provide important information for hazard mitigation efforts in that *** results highlight the advantages of using spatial statistical methods that could aid the development of natural hazard mitigation plans and risk reduction strategies by characterizing previous hazard occurrences spatially and spatiotemporally.

关键词： Hazard mitigation Natural hazards spatial statistics Washington state Wildfire

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Origins of Quasi-Biweekly and Intraseasonal Oscillations over the south China sea and Bay of Bengal and scale selection of Unstable Equatorial and Off-Equatorial Modes

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第1期34卷 137-149页

作者： Ying ZHANG tim LI Jianyun GAO Wei WANG Ningde Branch of Fujian Meteorological Bureau China Meteorological AdministrationNingde 352100China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiiHonoluluHI 96822USA 4Fujian Institute of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350001China Minhang District Office of shanghai Meteorological service China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 201199China

The daily outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)field in boreal summer shows significant power spectrum peaks on quasi-biweekly(10–20-day)and intraseasonal(20–80-day)timescales over the Indo–western Pacific warm pool,especially over the south China sea and Bay of *** quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)originates from offequatorial western North Pacific,and is characterized by a northwest–southeast oriented wave train pattern,propagating *** intraseasonal oscillation(IsO),on the other hand,originates from the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagates eastward and *** the equatorial mode possesses a 20–80-day periodicity while the off-equatorial mode favors a 10–20-day periodicity is investigated through idealized numerical experiments with a 2.5-layer atmospheric *** the off-equatorial region,the model simulates,under a realistic three-dimensional summer mean flow,the most unstable mode that has a wave train pattern with a typical zonal wavelength of 6000 km and a period of 10–20 days,propagating *** is in contrast to the equatorial region,where a Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO)like mode with a planetary(wavenumber-1)zonal scale and a period ranging from 20 to 80 days is *** experiments with different initial conditions indicate that the QBWO is an intrinsic mode of the atmosphere in boreal summer in the off-equatorial Indo–western Pacific region under the summer mean state,while the MJO is the most unstable mode in the equatorial region.

关键词： quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) intraseasonal oscillation(IsO) Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO) scale selection

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How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1673-1692,I0016,I0017页

作者： Zi-An GE Lin CHEN tim LI Lu WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA

The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive *** the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020(hereafter 2020PHR-like event)would change under global warming is *** index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer(Rx35day)is *** accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60%stronger than the climatology,and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year *** model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanEsM2 and the multimodel ensemble(MME)of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global *** on the Kolmogorov-smirnoff test,one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection *** CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios(CMIP5 RCP4.5,CMIP6 ssP1-2.6,and ssP2-4.5)and 3-5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios(3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5,2.9 times for CMIP6 ssP3-7.0,and 4.8 times for CMIP6 ssP5-8.5).The inter-model spread of the probability change is small,lending confidence to the projection *** results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall middle and lower Yangtze River basin future projection CMIP5 and CMIP6 models generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution

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An Objective Method for Defining Meiyu Onset in Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第6期36卷 841-852页

作者： Wei WANG tim LI Fei XIN Zhiwei ZHU Minhang Meteorological Bureau Shanghai 201199China Department of Atmospheric sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiHonoluluHawaiHI96822USA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Cities Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in shanghai Shanghai 200030China shanghai ClimateCenter Shanghai200030China

Meiyu is an important climate phenomenon in East Asia, and predicting its onset is critical for local ***, the onset of Meiyu is determined by regional operational meteorological centers with some arbitrary criteria. In this study, an objective Meiyu onset index(MOI) is constructed based on large-scale atmospheric conditions such as temperature and relative humidity over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(LYRB). This objectively determined MOI is in good agreement with an integrated area-weighted onset index provided by regional climate centers. A composite analysis is further carried out to reveal large-scale circulation characteristics associated with an early and a late onset group. A La Ni?a like sea surface temperature(ssT) condition in the Pacific and enhanced convection in Philippines are favorable precursory conditions for the early onset. Accompanied with the tropical signals are a Pacific-Japan(PJ) pattern in June and an anomalous anticyclone near Taiwan. southerly anomalies to the west of the anticyclone transports high mean moisture northward, favoring the onset of Meiyu in LYRB. A linear regression model is constructed for the MOI forecast with three independent predictors. With 1981-2010 as a training period, the reconstructed MOI time series is able to capture the early and late onset years quite well. An independent forecast for the period of 2011-2020 shows a reliable skill. The correlation between the objectively determined MOI and the forecasted date is 0.6, exceeding the 95% confidence level. The newly developed MOI and the regression model can be easily implemented to operational centers for real-time application.

关键词： Meiyu onset index Pacific–Japan pattern interannual variability a linear regression model

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Heavy Precipitation over the Jing–Jin–Ji Region in Early October: What Controls Its Interannual Variability?

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第4期36卷 586-600页

作者： Jing FENG tim LI Ji WANG Linna ZHANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate andEnvironmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC–FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Beijing Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA Beijing Municipal Climate Center Beijing 100089China Beijing Meteorological Observatory Beijing 100089China

Heavy regional precipitation(HRP)over Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei Province(the Jing–Jin–Ji region or JJJ)in early October(1–10 October)is a high-impact climate event because of travel and outdoor activities by exceptionally large population during the Chinese National Day Holidays(CNDH).What causes the year-to-year variation of the HRP during early October is investigated through an observational *** is found that the HRP arises from moisture transport by southerly anomalies to the west of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the subtropical northwestern Pacific(sNWP).sensitivity numerical experiments reveal that the low-level anticyclonic anomaly is caused by a dipole heating pattern over tropical western and central Pacific associated with a La Niña-like ssT anomaly(ssTA)pattern in the Pacific and by a negative heating anomaly over North *** latter connects the sNWP anticyclone through a Rossby wave *** ascent associated with a positive heating anomaly over the tropical western Pacific may strengthen the local Hadley Cell,contributing to maintenance of the low-level anomalous anticyclone over sNWP and extending westwards of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPsH).Therefore,both the tropical Pacific and midlatitude heating signals over North Europe may be potential predictors for HRP forecast in the JJJ region in early October.

关键词： heavy regional precipitation(HRP)in Jing–Jin–Ji(JJJ) Beijing Tianjin and Hebei Province water vapor(WV)transport Rossby wave train diabatic heating anomalies La Niña-like ssT anomaly

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