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An Empirical Model of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast in the Western North Pacific

Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第5期36卷 691-702页

作者： Chen MA tim li Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory Jiangsu Meteorological BureauNanjing 210019China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)NanjingUniversityof Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversityofHawaiiHI96822USA Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing 210019China

The relative impact of environmental parameters on tropical cyclone(TC) intensification rate(IR) was investigated through a box difference index(BDI) method, using TC best track data from Joint Typhoon Warning Center and environmental fields from the NCEP final analysis data over the western North Pacific(WNP) during 2000–2018.There are total 6307 TC samples with a 6-h interval, of which about 14% belong to rapid intensification(RI) category. The analysis shows that RI occurs more frequently with higher environmental sea surface temperature, higher oceanic heat content, and lower upper-tropospheric temperature. A moderate easterly shear is more favorable for TC intensification. TC intensification happens mostly equatorward of 20°N while TC weakening happens mostly when TCs are located in the northwest of the basin. Mid-tropospheric relative humidity and vertical velocity are good indicators separating the intensification and non-intensification groups. A statistical model for TC intensity prediction was constructed based on six environmental predictors, with or without initial TC intensity. Both models are skillful based on Brier skill score(BSS) relative to climatology and in comparison with other statistical models, for both a training period(2000–2018) and an independent forecast period(2019–2020).

关键词： tropical cyclone rapid intensification prediction model

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Sensitivity of the Size of a TC to Sea Surface Temperatures in Its Outer Region

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第6期37卷 829-840页

作者： Mingyu BI tim li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China Key Laboratory for Typhoon Monitoring&Forecasting of Zhejiang Province Wenzhou325000China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii96822USA

We investigated the sensitivity of the size of a tropical cyclone(TC) to warming or cooling sea surface temperatures(SST) in its outer region by simulating the SST beyond a radius of 200 km from the TC center.Sensitivity experiments showed that an increased SST outside the core region of the TC had a negative effect on its size.Warming in the outer region contributed to the local enhancement of the latent heat flux from sea surface,which promoted the development of small-scale convection and warmed the lower and midtroposphere.This warming altered the local pressure gradient force in the upper and lower troposphere in such a way that it weakened the secondary circulation of the TC and led to suppression of the spiral rainbands outside the eyewall.Further analysis showed that the outward-propagating rainband structure favored an increase in the size of the TC.The diabatic heat released by the rainbands induced an inflow at lower levels,facilitating expansion of the TC.The greater the distance of the rainbands from the center of the TC,given the same amplitude of diabatic heating,the stronger the forced inflow,resulting in a faster increase in the size of the TC.

关键词： tropical cyclones(TCs) size rainbands sea surface temperature(SST)

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Effect of vertical overturning circulation scale and moist static energy tendency on MJO phase speed

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第1期15卷 68-75页

作者： Feng Hu tim li School of Geographic Information and Tourism Chuzhou UniversityChuzhouChina Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaiiUSA

本文通过对1979-2019年ERA-I再分析资料进行诊断分析,研究了MJO垂直环流(VOC)纬向尺度和湿静力能(MSE)趋势纬向不对称性对MJO传播速度的综合影响.研究结果表明,MJO传播速度与VOC的纬向尺度和MSE趋势纬向梯度之间存在显著的正相关关系.... 详细信息

本文通过对1979-2019年ERA-I再分析资料进行诊断分析,研究了MJO垂直环流(VOC)纬向尺度和湿静力能(MSE)趋势纬向不对称性对MJO传播速度的综合影响.研究结果表明,MJO传播速度与VOC的纬向尺度和MSE趋势纬向梯度之间存在显著的正相关关系.基于上述两个参数,本文建立了线性回归模型,该模型可以较好的估计MJO的传播速度.本文对上述结果在不同的地理区域(120°-140°E)进行了敏感性测试.MJO传播速度仍然与这两个参数之间有显著的正相关关系.

关键词：垂直环流 MJO传播速度湿静力能趋势简单线性回归模型

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Simulations of a Persistent Heat Wave Event in Missouri in Summer 2012 Using a High-Resolution WRF Model

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第4期36卷 631-642页

作者： lili ZHU Fengpeng SUN tim li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC–FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Missouri–Kansas CityKansas CityMissouri 64110USA International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA

An extreme and persistent heat wave event hit Missouri in summer 2012.Current operational forecast models failed to predict such an event at a long lead.The objective of the current study is to simulate this extreme event using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with eight combined physical(including longwave/shortwave radiation,microphysics,and planetary boundary layer)parameterization packages.Integrated for one month,the model successfully simulates the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of surface air temperature,compared to in-situ observations.The interesting feature is an oscillatory development of the surface air temperature,with a pronounced synoptic timescale.Such a temperature evolution is consistent with the local zonal wind fluctuation,implying the important role of anomalous temperature advection.An overall skill score that combines the performance of 2-m air temperature,relative humidity,and precipitation fields is defined.The result shows that the combination of Thompson,Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs(RRTMG),and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino level-3(MYNN3)schemes presents the best WRF simulation.A further analysis of this best simulation shows that the model successfully reproduces the urban heat island(UHI)effect in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area with realistic diurnal variation of 2-m air temperature in the urban and nonurban areas with a larger UHI effect at nighttime.

关键词： 2012 US summer heat wave Missouri model evaluation/performance parameterization

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How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1673-1692,I0016,I0017页

作者： Zi-An GE lin CHEN tim li Lu WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA

The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks.How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020(hereafter 2020PHR-like event)would change under global warming is investigated.An index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer(Rx35day)is introduced.This accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60%stronger than the climatology,and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year event.The model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble(MME)of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global warming.Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test,one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection study.The CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios(CMIP5 RCP4.5,CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,and SSP2-4.5)and 3-5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios(3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5,2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0,and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5).The inter-model spread of the probability change is small,lending confidence to the projection results.The results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall middle and lower Yangtze River basin future projection CMIP5 and CMIP6 models generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution

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Heavy Precipitation over the Jing–Jin–Ji Region in Early October: What Controls Its Interannual Variability?

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第4期36卷 586-600页

作者： Jing FENG tim li Ji WANG linna ZHANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate andEnvironmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC–FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Beijing Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA Beijing Municipal Climate Center Beijing 100089China Beijing Meteorological Observatory Beijing 100089China

Heavy regional precipitation(HRP)over Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei Province(the Jing–Jin–Ji region or JJJ)in early October(1–10 October)is a high-impact climate event because of travel and outdoor activities by exceptionally large population during the Chinese National Day Holidays(CNDH).What causes the year-to-year variation of the HRP during early October is investigated through an observational analysis.It is found that the HRP arises from moisture transport by southerly anomalies to the west of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the subtropical northwestern Pacific(SNWP).Sensitivity numerical experiments reveal that the low-level anticyclonic anomaly is caused by a dipole heating pattern over tropical western and central Pacific associated with a La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)pattern in the Pacific and by a negative heating anomaly over North Europe.The latter connects the SNWP anticyclone through a Rossby wave train.Anomalous ascent associated with a positive heating anomaly over the tropical western Pacific may strengthen the local Hadley Cell,contributing to maintenance of the low-level anomalous anticyclone over SNWP and extending westwards of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Therefore,both the tropical Pacific and midlatitude heating signals over North Europe may be potential predictors for HRP forecast in the JJJ region in early October.

关键词： heavy regional precipitation(HRP)in Jing–Jin–Ji(JJJ) Beijing Tianjin and Hebei Province water vapor(WV)transport Rossby wave train diabatic heating anomalies La Niña-like SST anomaly

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An Objective Method for Defining Meiyu Onset in Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第6期36卷 841-852页

作者： Wei WANG tim li Fei XIN Zhiwei ZHU Minhang Meteorological Bureau Shanghai 201199China Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiHonoluluHawaiHI96822USA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Cities Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai 200030China Shanghai ClimateCenter Shanghai200030China

Meiyu is an important climate phenomenon in East Asia, and predicting its onset is critical for local community.Traditionally, the onset of Meiyu is determined by regional operational meteorological centers with some arbitrary criteria. In this study, an objective Meiyu onset index(MOI) is constructed based on large-scale atmospheric conditions such as temperature and relative humidity over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(LYRB). This objectively determined MOI is in good agreement with an integrated area-weighted onset index provided by regional climate centers. A composite analysis is further carried out to reveal large-scale circulation characteristics associated with an early and a late onset group. A La Ni?a like sea surface temperature(SST) condition in the Pacific and enhanced convection in Philippines are favorable precursory conditions for the early onset. Accompanied with the tropical signals are a Pacific-Japan(PJ) pattern in June and an anomalous anticyclone near Taiwan. Southerly anomalies to the west of the anticyclone transports high mean moisture northward, favoring the onset of Meiyu in LYRB. A linear regression model is constructed for the MOI forecast with three independent predictors. With 1981-2010 as a training period, the reconstructed MOI time series is able to capture the early and late onset years quite well. An independent forecast for the period of 2011-2020 shows a reliable skill. The correlation between the objectively determined MOI and the forecasted date is 0.6, exceeding the 95% confidence level. The newly developed MOI and the regression model can be easily implemented to operational centers for real-time application.

关键词： Meiyu onset index Pacific–Japan pattern interannual variability a linear regression model

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Evaluation of the Madden-Julian oscillation in HiRAM

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第4期15卷 19-26页

作者： Jie Jiang Lu Wang Jiuwei Zhao tim li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdaoChina International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaiʻi at MānoaHonoluluUSA

本研究评估了高分辨率大气环流模式HiRAM模拟的MJO.结果表明,HiRAM模拟的MJO东传很弱.我们通过计算整层积分的湿静力能(MSE)收支来诊断MJO东传模拟偏差的原因.结果发现,MSE倾向相对于MJO对流中心的纬向非对称分布很弱是导致东传模拟偏... 详细信息

本研究评估了高分辨率大气环流模式HiRAM模拟的MJO.结果表明,HiRAM模拟的MJO东传很弱.我们通过计算整层积分的湿静力能(MSE)收支来诊断MJO东传模拟偏差的原因.结果发现,MSE倾向相对于MJO对流中心的纬向非对称分布很弱是导致东传模拟偏弱的原因,这主要是由MSE垂直平流和地表湍流通量的模拟偏差造成的.进一步研究表明,对流层上层MJO垂直环流结构的模拟偏差和MJO对流西侧的Rossby波环流偏强共同导致了模式的偏差.本研究中指出的MJO传播模拟偏差的原因与之前基于多模式结果的结论不同,这意味着要想了解特定模式的模拟偏差,有必要对该模式进行具体分析.

关键词：季节内振荡湿静力能东传 HiRAM

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Role of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation in a lowtemperature event in February 2022 in eastern China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第6期14卷 921-929页

作者： Zhi-Fan CHEN Ying SUN Xuebin ZHANG tim li Jin-Hua YU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Climate Studies Key Laboratory National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 10008lChina Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change CanadaToronto M3H 5T4Canada Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawai at ManoaHonolulu HI 96822USA

In February 2022,eastern China experienced prolonged low temperatures,with significant impacts on agriculture,transportation,and power supply.The regional average temperature anomaly for February 2022 was-0.65℃,making it the third coldest February from 2000 to 2022.Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation on low-temperature events is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the region.This study used observational and model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to conduct an extreme event attribution study.The results showed that anthropogenic forcing led to a 1.5-fold decrease in the probability of 2022-like events,with anthropogenic greenhouse gases being the primary contributors to this reduction.Conversely,aerosols slightly increased the likelihood of such events.To evaluate the role of atmospheric circulation in this event,we chose Siberian High as the key circulation system and employed circulation similarity,intensity classification,and regression methods to estimate the impacts of circulation patterns,circulation in-tensity,and human-induced circulation change.The results demonstrated that under the influence of the same anthropogenic forcing,the presence of an anomalous Siberian High and anomalously enhanced intensity of the Siberian High both increased the likelihood of such a cold event occurrence.However,anthropogenic forcing exerts a negligible effect on such cold events via anomalous circulation.

关键词： Low-temperature event Attribution Intensity of the Siberian high Anthropogenic forcing Atmospheric circulation

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Impact of Background Dynamic and Thermodynamic States on Distinctive Annual Cycle of Near-Equatorial Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Western North Pacific

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第4期34卷 822-835页

作者： liyuan DENG tim li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiiHonoluluHI 96822USA

In a sharp contrast to tropical cyclone(TC) genesis over the main development region of the western North Pacific(WNP), near-equatorial(0°-5°N) TCs exhibit a distinctive annual cycle, peaking in boreal winter and being inactive in boreal summer. The relative roles of dynamic and thermodynamic background states on near-equatorial TCs formation were investigated based on the observational diagnosis of the genesis potential index(GPI) and high-resolution model simulations. It is found that the background vorticity makes a major contribution to the distinctive annual cycle, while mean temperature and specific humidity fields are not critical. Numerical simulations further indicate that seasonal mean cyclonic vorticity in boreal winter has three effects on TC genesis near the equator. First, the environmental cyclonic vorticity interacts with TC vortex to promote a mid-level outflow, which strengthens boundary layer friction induced ascending motion and thus condensational heating. Second, it produces an equivalent Coriolis effect(via enhanced absolute vorticity), which strengthens positive feedback between primary and secondary circulation. Third, it helps to merge small-scale vortical hot towers(VHTs) into a mesoscale core through vorticity segregation process. However, background vorticity in boreal summer has an opposite effect on TC development near the equator.

关键词： near-equatorial tropical cyclone(TC) equivalent Coriolis effect vorticity segregation

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