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Using NWP to Assess the Influence of the Arctic Atmosphere on Midlatitude Weather and Climate

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第1期35卷 5-13页

作者： tido semmler Thomas JUNG Marta A.KASPER Soumia SERRAR Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

The influence of the Arctic atmosphere on Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric weather and climate is explored by comparing the skill of two sets of 14-day weather forecast experiments using the ECMWF model with and without relaxation of the Arctic atmosphere towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data during the integration. Two pathways are identified along which the Arctic influences midlatitude weather: a pronounced one over Asia and Eastern Europe, and a secondary one over North America. In general, linkages are found to be strongest(weakest) during boreal winter(summer) when the amplitude of stationary planetary waves over the Northern Hemisphere is strongest(weakest). No discernible Arctic impact is found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific region, which is consistent with predominantly southwesterly flow. An analysis of the flow-dependence of the linkages shows that anomalous northerly flow conditions increase the Arctic influence on midlatitude weather over the continents. Specifically, an anomalous northerly flow from the Kara Sea towards West Asia leads to cold surface temperature anomalies not only over West Asia but also over Eastern and Central Europe. Finally, the results of this study are discussed in the light of potential midlatitude benefits of improved Arctic prediction capabilities.

关键词： Arctic atmosphere relaxation northern midlatitudes linkage model

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Preface to the Special Issue:Towards Improving Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Change and its Linkage with Eurasian Mid-latitude Weather and Climate

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第1期35卷 1-4页

作者： Xiangdong ZHANG Thomas JUNG Muyin WANG Yong LUO tido semmler Andrew ORR International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska FairbanksFairbanks AK 99775USA Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchBremerhaven 27570Germany joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98115USA Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China British Antarctic Survey Cambridge CB3 0ETUK

The dramatic changes in the Arctic climate system during recent decades are one of the most prominent features of global climate *** most striking and fundamental characteristics are the amplified near-surface warming at a rate twice the global average since the mid 20th century(e.g.,Blunden and Arndt,2012;Huang et al.,2017),and the rapid

关键词： Preface to the Special Issue:Towards Improving Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Change and Its Linkage with Eurasian Mid-latitude Weather and Climate

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