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Convection-Permitting Simulations of Current and Future Climates over the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 1901-1916页

作者： Liwei ZOU tianjun zhou LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The Tibetan Plateau（TP） region, also known as the “Asian water tower”, provides a vital water resource for downstream regions. Previous studies of water cycle changes over the TP have been conducted with climate models of coarse resolution in which deep convection must be parameterized. In this study, we present results from a first set of highresolution climate change simulations that permit convection at approximately 3.3-km grid spacing, with a focus on the TP,using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model（ICON）. Two 12-year simulations were performed,consisting of a retrospective simulation（2008–20） with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 reanalysis and a pseudoglobal warming projection driven by modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions by adding the monthly CMIP6 ensemble-mean climate change under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The retrospective simulation shows overall good performance in capturing the seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Over the central and eastern TP, the average biases in precipitation（temperature） are less than-0.34 mm d-1（-1.1℃） throughout the year. The simulated biases over the TP are height-dependent. Cold（wet） biases are found in summer（winter） above 5500 m. The future climate simulation suggests that the TP will be wetter and warmer under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The general features of projected changes in ICON are comparable to the CMIP6 ensemble projection, but the added value from kilometer-scale modeling is evident in both precipitation and temperature projections over complex topographic regions. These ICON-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset to the community for the study of regional climate changes and impacts over the TP.

关键词： convection-permitting dynamical downscaling pseudo-global warming Tibetan Plateau

Assessing the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Droughts across Global Drylands

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 193-208页

作者： Xiaojing YU Lixia ZHANG tianjun zhou Jianghua ZHENG LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China College of Geography&Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China

Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are *** the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 o

关键词： droughts hydrothermal conditions drylands CMIP6 model evaluation

Insights from the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition: Unveiling the westerly–monsoon synergy and hydroclimate changes

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 1-2页

作者： Chaofan Li Yaoming Ma tianjun zhou Riyu Lu Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Land-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Climatic Effects Group State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemEnvironment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering China Three Gorges UniversityYichangChina College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhouChina Qomolangma Atmospheric and Environmental Observation and Research Station TingriChina Kathmandu Center for Research and Education Chinese Academy of Sciences-Tribhuvan UniversityBeijingChina China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences IslamabadPakistan

The Tibetan Plateau(TP),often referred to as the“Asian Water Tower”,holds vast reserves of glaciers,snow,and permafrost,serving as the crucial source for major rivers that support billions of people across *** TP’s unique geographical positioning fosters significant interplay between the westerly and monsoon systems,the hydroclimate changes on the TP and its interactions with these two major atmospheric circulation systems through both the thermodynamic and dynamic processes,as well as the atmospheric water cycle of the *** interactions have far-reaching impacts on the weather and climate of China,Asia,and even the global atmospheric circulation.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau holds

Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 40-46页

作者： Hui Qiu tianjun zhou Liwei Zou Jie Jiang Xiaolong Chen Shuai Hu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina

Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model *** to develop a reliable projection remains ***,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the *** best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,*** corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),*** increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained ***,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–*** wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–*** study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.

关键词： Tibetan plateau Climate sensitivity Precipitation projection Water availability projection

温室气体、气溶胶和太平洋年代际振荡对亚洲高山区降水变化的共同作用

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科学通报 2024年第10期69卷 1253-1256页

作者：江洁周天军中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院北京100049

以青藏高原为主体的亚洲高山区孕育并滋养了亚洲多条重要的河流.亚洲高山区是气候变化的敏感区,同时也是生态环境的脆弱区.在全球增温背景下,亚洲高山区水循环发生了前所未有的变化,面临冰川退缩、积雪减少、多年冻土消融等问题.亚洲高... 详细信息

以青藏高原为主体的亚洲高山区孕育并滋养了亚洲多条重要的河流.亚洲高山区是气候变化的敏感区,同时也是生态环境的脆弱区.在全球增温背景下,亚洲高山区水循环发生了前所未有的变化,面临冰川退缩、积雪减少、多年冻土消融等问题.亚洲高山区陆地水储量的变化具有明显的空间异质性,这与过去几十年该地区降水的“双核型”变化有关[1].多源观测资料分析表明,20世纪70年代以来亚洲高山区北部降水增多,而包括喜马拉雅山脉在内的高原东南部地区降水则减少[1,2].

关键词：温室气体山区降水喜马拉雅山脉冰川退缩多年冻土水循环空间异质性生态环境

2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1001-1016页

作者： Wenxia ZHANG Robin CLARK tianjun zhou Laurent LI Chao LI Juan RIVERA Lixia ZHANG Kexin GUI Tingyu ZHANG Lan LI Rongyun PAN Yongjun CHEN Shijie TANG Xin HUANG Shuai HU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUK University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75230France Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg 20146Germany Instituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología Y Ciencias Ambientales(IANIGLA)CCT CONICETMendoza CP 5500Argentina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center Shanghai 201306China

Globally,2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and,according to proxy evidence,possibly of the past 100000 *** in recent years,the record warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout the ***,we provide an overview of those of 2023,with details and key background causes to help build upon our understanding of the roles of internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate *** also highlight emerging features associated with some of these extreme *** extremes are occurring earlier in the year,and increasingly simultaneously in differing parts of the world(e.g.,the concurrent hot extremes in the Northern Hemisphere in July 2023).Intense cyclones are exacerbating precipitation extremes(e.g.,the North China flooding in July and the Libya flooding in September).Droughts in some regions(e.g.,California and the Horn of Africa)have transitioned into flood *** extremes also show increasing interactions with ecosystems via wildfires(e.g.,those in Hawaii in August and in Canada from spring to autumn 2023)and sandstorms(e.g.,those in Mongolia in April 2023).Finally,we also consider the challenges to research that these emerging characteristics present for the strategy and practice of adaptation.

关键词： weather and climate extremes temperature extremes extreme precipitation drought wildfires

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火山气溶胶影响气候的研究现状与未来

科学通报 2024年第2期69卷 230-252页

作者：周天军左萌满文敏中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

火山喷发主要通过改变大气成分进而影响气候异常,火山喷发后在平流层形成的硫酸盐气溶胶是影响气候变化的重要自然外强迫因子.本文在概述火山喷发影响气候的基本原理和研究方法基础上,围绕着过去2500年主要火山事件的记录重建,火山喷发... 详细信息

火山喷发主要通过改变大气成分进而影响气候异常,火山喷发后在平流层形成的硫酸盐气溶胶是影响气候变化的重要自然外强迫因子.本文在概述火山喷发影响气候的基本原理和研究方法基础上,围绕着过去2500年主要火山事件的记录重建,火山喷发对全球气候、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-southern oscillation,ENSO)、东亚和中国气候的影响,火山喷发对年代际气候预测和未来气候预估的影响、火山空气污染及其人体健康影响等问题,总结了近年来的主要进展,探讨了亟待加强的研究方向.主要结论如下:(1)较为可靠的火山气溶胶强迫资料重建已延伸至过去2500年,全球范围内能够造成有效辐射强迫减少1 W m−2以上的大型火山喷发的平均周期为43±7.5年;记录重建的难点在于如何利用冰芯中的硫酸盐记录来重建火山强度、持续时间和空间分布等.(2)火山气溶胶的全球气候影响,包括令全球平均温度降低和冬季北半球中高纬地区升温,使全球平均降水减少,季风环流减弱,季风降水减少;火山喷发后平流层水汽的增加能够部分抵消火山气溶胶的冷却作用;火山喷发还能够影响海表高度、海温和海洋环流的年代际变化,通过影响生态系统碳循环造成大气中CO_(2)浓度降低.(3)热带火山喷发后太平洋会出现El Niño型海温响应,热带和北半球高纬度火山喷发对El Niño型海温异常形成的驱动作用强于南半球火山,海温初始位相能够影响火山喷发对ENSO的影响.(4)火山气溶胶能够导致东亚地区气温下降,出现极端低温,并使东亚夏季风环流减弱,中国东部降水总体减少,但呈现出空间分布上的不均匀性.(5)考虑火山气溶胶的影响能够提升年代际气候预测技巧,强迫气候系统内部变率模态的位相变化,潜在的火山喷发能够导致预估的未来百年全球平均温度低于预期、全球季风区降水减少.(6)火山喷发能够引起火山空气污染,进而对人体健康产生影响.(7)未来需要加强的研究工作,包括历史时期火山记录的重建和器测资料时期火山气溶胶等资料的卫星反演、火山影响全球和区域气候的物理学机理研究、“平流层化学-气溶胶-气候”耦合模式的研发、火山气候影响研究的多学科交叉国际合作,需要重视现代小型火山喷发的气候影响问题,以及火山喷发对年代际气候变率模态和年代际气候预测的作用问题.

关键词：火山气溶胶重建和气候模拟温度降水厄尔尼诺-南方涛动气候预测和预估

“Mega-sandwich pattern”of interdecadal precipitation variations and its regional manifestation in the Asian summer precipitation region

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Science Bulletin 2024年第17期69卷 2656-2659页

作者： Fahu Chen Lingxin Huang Dianbin Cao Jie Chen Shengqian Chen Shuai Ma tianjun zhou Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation Group(ALPHA) State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemEnvironment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)is an important link between the South Asian monsoon(SAM)region,the East Asian monsoon region,and the drylands of Central *** changes within these regions are dominated by both the monsoon and the *** has prompted the scientific community to adopt a broad spatial perspective,proposing concepts such as the"Pan-Third Poleoor"Asian summer precipitationo,to better understand the regional climate dynamics,their driving mechanisms,and the resulting major ecological and environmental impacts.

关键词： Asian monsoon precipitation

Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU tianjun zhou Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST