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GlOBAl AWARENESS,FUTURE CITY DESIGN AND DECISION MAKING

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2012年第3期21卷 337-355页

作者： thomas l.saaty Mujgan SAGIR University of Pittsburgh PittsburghPA 15260USA Eskisehir Osmangazi University EskisehirTurkey

Our world has been changing at an exponential rate. As a result of this rapid growth, we will be forced to make changes in not only the way we live in the environment but also in the environment itself such as designing the cities of the future to be in greater harmony with the increasing population and growing complexity. The paper contains both reflections on global awareness and comprehensive criteria and their priorities for choosing the most desirable city.

关键词： Global awareness multicriteria decision making prioritization compact city

AN ANAlYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS MODEl OF GROUP CONSENSUS

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2014年第3期23卷 363-375页

作者： Qingxing DONG thomas l.saaty School of Information Management Central China Normal University University of Pittsburgh PittsburghPA 15260USA

In group decision making, a certain degree of consensus is necessary to derive a meaningful and valid outcome. This paper proposes a consensus reaching model for a group by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）. It supports people to improve their group consensus level through an updating of their judgments. In this model, a moderator suggests the most discoraant aeclslon manet to update his judgment in each step. The proposed consensus reaching model allows decision makers to accept or reject the suggestion from the moderator. This model ensures that the judgment updating is effective and the final solution will be of acceptable consistency. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed consensus reaching model.

关键词： Group decision making Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) consensus judgment updating

Predicting the Outcome of a Tennis Tournament:Based on Both Data and Judgments

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2019年第3期28卷 317-343页

作者： Wei Gu thomas l.saaty aDonlinks School of Economics and Management University of Science and Technology BeijingBeijing 100083China Distinguished University Professor University of PittsburghPittsburghPA 15260United States

This paper is about predicting the outcome of tennis matches of the Association of Tennis Professionals(ATP)and the Women's Tennis Association(WTA)using both data and *** are many factors that influence that *** important question is which factors have significant influence on the *** have identified numerous factors and systematically prioritized them subjectively and objectively,so as to improve the accuracy of the *** then used them to predict the win-lose outcome of the 2015 US OPEN tennis matches(63 men and 31 women's games)before they took *** tennis match prediction in sports literature thus far reported an accuracy rate of 70%.The accuracy of our proposed model which combines data and judgment reaches 85.1%.

关键词： Prediction tennis data analysis judgment

FUNDAMENTAlS OF THE ANAlYTIC NETWORK PROCESS- DEPENDENCE AND FEEDBACK IN DECISION-MAKING WITH A SINGlE NETWORK

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维普期刊数据库

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Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2004年第2期13卷 129-157页

作者： thomas l.saaty University of Pittsburgh

The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a multicriteria theory of measurement used to derive relative priority scales of absolute numbers from individual judgments (or from actual measurements normalized to a relative form) that also belong to a fundamental scale of absolute numbers. These judgments represent the relative influence, of one of two elements over the other in a pairwise comparison process on a third element in the system, with respect to an underlying control criterion. Through its supermatrix, whose entries are themselves matrices of column priorities, the ANP synthesizes the outcome of dependence and feedback within and between clusters of elements. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with its independence assumptions on upper levels from lower levels and the independence of the elements in a level is a special case of the ANP. The ANP is an essential tool for articulating our understanding of a decision problem. One had to overcome the limitation of linear hierarchic structures and their mathematical consequences. This part on the ANP summarizes and illustrates the basic concepts of the ANP and shows how informed intuitive judgments can lead to real life answers that are matched by actual measurements in the real world (for example, relative dollar values) as illustrated in market share examples that rely on judgments and not on numerical data.

关键词： Analytic Network Process (ANP) decisions with feedback interdependence market share paired-comparisons supermatrix limit priorities

DECISION MAKING - THE ANAlYTIC HIERARCHY AND NETWORK PROCESSES (AHP/ANP)

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Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2004年第1期13卷 1-35页

作者： thomas l.saaty University of Pittsburgh

This is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives as in the AHP and also with dependence and feedback in the entire decision structure as in the ANP. This part explains the Analytic Hierarchy Process, with examples, and presents in some detail the mathematical foundations. An exposition of the Analytic Network Process and its applications will appear in later issues of this journal.

关键词： Decision making Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Analytic Network Process (ANP)

FUNDAMENTAlS OF THE ANAlYTIC NETWORK PROCESS - MUlTIPlE NETWORKS WITH BENEFITS,COSTS,OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS

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Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2004年第3期13卷 348-379页

作者： thomas l.saaty University of Ptttsburgh

The general theory of the ANP enables one to deal with the benefits,opportunities,costs,andrisks(the BOCR merits)of a decision,by introducing the notion of negative priorites for C and Ralong with the rating(not comparison)of the top priority alternative synthesized for each of the fourmerits in terms of strategic criteria to enable one to combine the four B,O,C,and R values of eachalternative into a single *** criteria are very basic criteria individuals and groups useto assess whether they should make any of the many decisions they face in their daily *** do not depend on any particular decision for their priorities but are assessed in terms of the goalsand values of the individual or *** is made with two formulas,one multiplicativeand one additive subtractive that can give rise to negative overall *** paper summarizesand illustrates basic complex decisions involving several control criteria under each of the BOCRmerits.

关键词： Analytic network process forecasting US economy benefits opportunities costs risks China and the WTO Ford Explorer Re-design sensitivity analysis

THERE IS NO MATHEMATICAl VAlIDITY FOR USING FUZZY NUMBER CRUNCHING IN THE ANAlYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2006年第4期15卷 457-464页

作者： thomas l. saaty University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh PA 15260

Fuzzy logic has difficulty producing valid answers in decision-making. Absent are theorems to prove that it works to produce results already known that are being estimated with judgments by transforming such judgments numerically. The numerical representation of judgments in the AHP is already fuzzy. Making fuzzy judgments more fuzzy does not lead to a better more valid outcome and it often leads to a worse one. The compatibility index of the AHP is used to illustrate how the answers obtained by fuzzifying AHP judgments do not produce better results than direct derivation of the principal eigenvector. Other authors who did experiments with given data in decision making quoted in the conclusions section of the paper, have observed that fuzzy sets gives the poorest answers among all methods used to derive best decisions.

关键词： Analytic Hierarchy Process fuzzy logic compatibility index validity

MAKING AND VAlIDATING COMPlEX DECISIONS WITH THE AHP/ANP

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2005年第1期14卷 1-36页

作者： thomas l. saaty University of Pittsburgh

Several examples that serve to validate the AHP/ANP with matrices hierarchies and networks are given in this paper. They are then followed by a discussion of the real numbers and how they are generated without the need for an absolute zero, and how they define an absolute scale of measurement that also does not need an absolute zero. In the AHP/ANP the measurement of an alternative depends on what other alternatives it is compared with. The result is that rank can change if alternatives are added or deleted, something that does not occur in one-at-a-time rating of the alternatives by comparing them with an ideal. An example is provided to show that this is natural and need not involve new criteria or change in judgments. A brief discussion of Utility Theory, the other multi-criteria theory, which uses interval scales to measure intangibles and some of its problems and paradoxes, is given. The references at the end include most of the papers that are adverse to the AHP with brief comments about several of them given in the paper.

关键词： Analytic hierarchy and network processes validation input-output utility theory paradoxes rank comments and criticisms

AUTOMATIC DECISION-MAKING: NEURAl FIRING AND RESPONSE

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Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2004年第4期13卷 385-404页

作者： thomas l. saaty University of Pittsburgh

In contrast with conscious decision-making, there are numerous subconscious decisions that we make without thinking about them. Some are biological and are made by different parts of our body to keep it alive and functioning normally. Others are a result of repetition and training that we can then do without thinking about them. The mathematics of conscious decisions with the Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes is discrete, and has been discussed in the first three parts published on the subject. The mathematics of subconscious decisions is continuous. Here, we generalize the discrete mathematics of conscious decisions to the continuous case and develop it in some depth to apply to the synthesis of firings in the brain.

关键词： Decision-making automatic decisions analytic hierarchy process analytic network process neural firing compatibility index