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Modeling of cold-temperate tree Pinus koraiensis (Pinaceae) distribution in the Asia-Pacific region: Climate change impact

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Forest Ecosystems 2022年第2期9卷 160-167页

作者： tatyana y.petrenko Kirill A.Korznikov Dmitry E.Kislov Nadezhda G.Belyaeva Pavel V.Krestov Botanical Garden-Institute FEB RAS Makovskogo St.142Vladivostok690024Russia Institute of Geography RAS Staromonetniy 24-4Moscow119017Russia

Background:Pinus koraiensis Siebold&Zucc.(Korean pine)is a key species of the mixed cold temperate forests of Northeast *** climate change can significantly worsen the quality of *** habitats and therefore lead to a large-scale structural and functional transformation of the East Asian mixed *** built a species distribution model(SDM)for *** using the random forest classifier–a versatile machine learning al-gorithm,to discover overlap areas of potential species occurrence in the climate condition of the Last Glacial Maximum(~21,000 year before present)and in the projected future climates(2070 year),from which possible permanent refugia for *** were ***:Using the random forest supervised learning algorithm,we developed models of the modern distribution of *** in accordance with the five selected bioclimatic variables(Kira’s warmth and coldness indices,the index of continentality,the rain precipitation index,and the snow precipitation index).In addition to current climatic conditions,we performed this analysis for the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and for the future projected climate(2070)under scenarios RCP2.6 and *** the predictors,the rain index appears to be the most *** land area estimates with high suitability for *** was 303,785 km 2 under current climatic conditions,586,499 km 2 for the Last Glacial Maximum,and 337,573 km^(2) for the future(2070)period under the RCP2.6 scenario,and 397,764 km^(2) under the RCP8.5 ***:Most of the potential range of *** during the Last Glacial Maximum was located outside the current distribution area of the *** climatically suitable *** habitats will likely disappear in the western part of its modern *** the southern part of the range,which includes glacial refugia,the areas of continuous distribution of the *** populations since the end of the Pleistocene are expected to

关键词： Climate change Bioclimatic modeling Species distribution model Korean pine Northeast Asia

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