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Teaching Systems Theory/Thinking/Behavior: Systemic Behavior Instead of One-Sidedness: Making Bridges Among Specialists

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2019年第4期10卷 390-398页

作者： Matjaz MULEJ Zdenka zENKO tadeja jere jakulin University of Maribor Slovenia Faculty of Economics and Business University of MariborMariborSlovenia Faculty of Tourism University of PrimorskaPiranSlovenia

In the current real life, systems theory is an abstract background of systems thinking,which is a part of systemic behavior. The systemic behavior is the alternative to the currently prevailing one-sidedness that puts all of humankind in danger of self-destruction due to the crucial over-sights(all the way to world wars) that unavoidably result from the current over-specialization(along with crucial, but partial insights), if the specialists fail to practice creative interdisciplinary *** contribution is a next phase of research after the contributions by Matja? Mulej, Zdenka ?enko and Viktor ?akelj(2017) and by Matja? Mulej, et al.(2013). Although the abstract background and thinking that the systemic behavior applies, are very necessary, theory and thinking are no longer enough for systems science to be a relevant science and practice helping humankind find the way out from the current blind alley and survive as a healthy civilization with a healthy social and natural environment. The suggestion in this contribution therefore reads: Let us systems and cybernetics scientists make/enable the transition to systemic behavior, which applies all the many theories, which are components in the background of systemic behavior in practice, next to each other and/or in synergy. Analysis, i.e., studying per isolated parts is too overlooking and one-sided to be enough. So is teaching on a single one out of several systems theories. Reality is too complex. Teaching is a part of this necessary effort, which must lead to a global peace and survival of humankind of today instead of the current hating the human descendants.

关键词： systems theory systemic thinking systemic behavior systems science humankind survival of human civilization social environment natural environment

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A Proposed Amelioration Strategy for Informal Settlements,Based on the Bottom-up Approach Grounded in the Eco Village Viewpoint.A Case of Misisi Area,Lusaka,Zambia

A Proposed Amelioration Strategy for Informal Settlements,Ba...

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作者： jere Kezala 天津大学

学位级别：硕士

The formation of unplanned or informal settlements and at other times often called “slums” or “shanties” presents a number of challenges in which the livelihoods,health,and safety of residents living in them remain at *** thesis is specifically grounded on studying a particular informal settlement called “Misisi” located in Lusaka the capital city of *** Thesis seeks to answer question,“How can the lives of residents in Misisi area be improved?” by seeking out an Informal Settlement Bottom-Up amelioration strategy in line with the ecovillage viewpoint on how the current situation Misisi informal settlement can be made well,hence the term” Amelioration”.The study on how to ameliorate Misis informal settlement is driven by objective knowledge,obtained through logical reasoning and certainty found through repetitive *** research methodology on the amelioration strategy is basically divided into three parts（i）spatial analysis（ii）statistical analysis and（ii）physical *** that these three parts are still part and parcel of the macro and micro scale *** other method of study adopted in this thesis research is the case study method to answer the,” how”,“why” or “what” ***,the physical planning component will eventually be a proposal based on the findings of the *** findings on the macro scale spatial analysis were gotten from the Arc GIS hotshot and optimized hotshot analysis,in which the hotspots are statistically significant clusters of high values and the coldspots are statistically significant clusters of low ***,the amelioration strategy point of intervention is on the hotspot *** statistical findings at the micro scale culminated into a formation of three（3）models;（i）household building infrastructure（ii）Access to water and（iii）*** ANOVA results only from（model 1）and（model 3）show that the models were *** phenomenon on informal settlement upgrading raised a lot of dust

关键词： Informal Settlements Bottom-up approach grounded the Eco Village viewpoint

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Using Box-Jenkins Models to Forecast Mobile Cellular Subscription

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Open Journal of Statistics 2016年第2期6卷 303-309页

作者： Ian Siluyele Stanley jere Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) Lusaka Zambia Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.

关键词： Mobile Cellular Subscription Box-Jenkins Methodology ARIMA Model Autocorrelation Function Partial Autocorrelation Function

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Forecasting Inflation Rate of Zambia Using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing

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Open Journal of Statistics 2016年第2期6卷 363-372页

作者： Stanley jere Mubita Siyanga Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.

关键词： Inflation Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Consumer Price Index Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error

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Modelling Epidemiological Data Using Box-Jenkins Procedure

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Open Journal of Statistics 2016年第2期6卷 295-302页

作者： Stanley jere Edwin Moyo Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2009 to 2013 for age 1 to under 5 years. The model-building process involves three steps: tentative identification of a model from the ARIMA class, estimation of parameters in the identified model, and diagnostic checks. Results show that an appropriate model is simply an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) due to the fact that, the ACF has an exponential decay and the PACF has a spike at lag 1 which is an indication of the said model. The forecasted Malaria cases for January and February, 2014 are 220 and 265, respectively.

关键词： Box-Jenkins Modeling Procedure ARIMA Model Exponential Decay Spike

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Assessing the Potential Presence and Impact of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Pisces: Cichlidae;Linnaeus 1758) in Mutukutuku Reservoir in Solwezi, Zambia

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Journal of Food Science and Engineering 2019年第9期9卷 385-395页

作者： Arthertone jere Lackson Chama Siachoono Stanford Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock Department of FisheriesExtension ServicesSolwezi 110118Zambia Department Zoology and Aquatic Science School of Natural ResourcesThe Copperbelt UniversityKitwe 21692Zambia

Invasive alien species are one of the greatest threats to biodiversity and ecosystem globally,affecting delivery of ecosystem goods and services,and consequently human *** niloticus is one of the most highly successful invaders of aquatic ecosystems with competitive characteristic advantages over indigenous *** aim of this study was to investigate the potential presence and impact of *** on Mitukutuku *** study was undertaken using fisheries independent surveys for the period of 2 *** identification key and gel electrophoresis identification methods were also used to confirm presence of *** and also possible hybridization with indigenous congeneric *** dependent survey was conducted with fishers and traders to further assess presence of the invasive species and its impacts on their catches and socio-economic well-being.A total of 32 Oreochromis hybrids species and 19 of *** were found in the *** confirmed a higher proportion of *** in the *** from interviews of fishers and traders revealed catch per unit effort of *** and *** to be higher compared to that of indigenous congeneric ***,fish traders confirmed that income for the fish sales increased from 5%in March to 7%in ***,these results suggested that *** does not only exist in Mitukutuku reservoir,but also hybridizes with native species and dominates the entire stretch of the reservoir threatening loss of biodiversity and aquaculture breeding *** is need for restricting culture of *** in Zambia.

关键词： Aestivate congeneric species invasive impact Mitukutuku reservoir Solwezi Zambia

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Senarmontite volatilization kinetics in nitrogen atmosphere at roasting/melting temperatures

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Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China 2016年第1期26卷 294-300页

作者： A.ARACENA O.jere C.ANTONUCCI Escuela de Ingenieria Qufmica Pontificia Universidad Catoolica de ValparaisoGeneral Cruz 34ValparaisoChile Instituto de Geologia Econemica Aplicada(GEA) Universidad de ConcepcionCasilla 160-CConcepci6nChile

The volatilization kinetics of senarmontite（Sb_2O_3） was analyzed in a neutral atmosphere in two temperature ranges： 550-615 °C（roasting temperature） and 660-1100 °C（melting temperature） by using a thermogravimetric analysis method under various gas flow rates and using a 1.3 m L ceramic crucible（11 mm in internal diameter and 14 mm in height）. The effect of particle size was also analyzed. The experimental results of mass loss data, X-ray diffraction（XRD） analysis of partially reacted samples and thermodynamic studies indicate that the senarmontite becomes volatile in the form of Sb_4O_6（g） without the formation of any intermediary compound in the entire temperature range. At roasting temperatures, the volatilization kinetics of Sb_2O_3 was analyzed using the model X=kappt. The volatilization reaction was controlled by the surface chemical reaction and an activation energy value of 193.0 k J/mol was obtained in this temperature range. Based on the volatilization kinetics at the melting temperatures, for linear behaviour in nitrogen gas, kinetic constants were determined, and an activation energy of 73.9 k J/mol was calculated for the volatilization reaction with a surface area of 8.171×10^（-5）m^2.

关键词： senarmontite volatilization rate roasting temperature melting temperature kinetics

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Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment to Zambia: A Time Series Analysis

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Open Journal of Statistics 2017年第1期7卷 122-131页

作者： Stanley jere Bornwell Kasense Obvious Chilyabanyama Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

Three methods are considered in this paper: Simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best fit model was then used to forecast Zambia’s annual net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from 1970 to 2014. Foreign direct investment is foreign capital investment to Zambia. Throughout the paper the methods are illustrated using Zambia’s annual Net FDI inflows. A comparison of the three methods shows that the ARIMA (1, 1, 5) is the best fit model because it has the minimum error. Forecasting results give a gradual increase in annual net FDI inflows of about 44.36% by 2024. Forecasting results plays a vital role to policy makers. Decision making, coming up with good policies and suitable strategic plans, depends on accurate forecasts. Zambian FDI policy makers can use the results obtained in this study and create suitable strategic plans to promote FDI.

关键词： Foreign Direct Investment Simple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Forecasting

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ICT eServices Requirements to Address Rural Users Expectations and Needs

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通讯和计算机（中英文版） 2012年第3期9卷 285-296页

作者： Nobert Rangarirai jere Mamello Thinyane Alfredo Terzoli Telkom Centre of Excellence in ICTD Department of Computer ScienceFort Hare UniversityPrivate Bag X1314 Alice 5700South Africa

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Univariate Time-Series Analysis of Second-Hand Car Importation in Zambia

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Open Journal of Statistics 2017年第4期7卷 718-730页

作者： Stanley jere Bornwell Kasense Bwalya Bupe Bwalya Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.

关键词： Zambia Importation Second Hand Car Exponential Smoothing Models ARIMA Models Forecasting

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