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TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS (2016) FORECASTING CHALLENGES: A MODEL'S PERSPECTIVE

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2018年第3期7卷 172-178页

作者： tracey dorian BILL WARD YI-LENG CHEN I.M.Systems Group at NOAA/NCEP/EMC College Park NWS Pacific Region Headquarters University of Hawai'i at Mānoa

The tropical cyclone(TC)named Amos(2016)that impacted the Samoan Islands on 23 April 2016 was a particularly dif f icult storm to *** the intensity changes and the track of Amos represent a signif icant challenge for forecasters and this is briefl y summarized in this *** forecasts initially indicated that the cyclone would track south of the Samoan ***,the forecasts generally changed to a direct hit over Samoa as a Category 4 storm at approximately 0000 U TC 24April based on model cycles initialized at 0000 UTC 23 *** Amos’central pressure dropped from 983 hPa to 957 hPa between 0000 UTC 21 April and 0000 UTC *** models did not pick up on this rapid intensif ication until the intensif ication had already begun around0000 UTC 21 *** models also struggled to capture the rapid weakening of TC Amos due to vertical wind shear that began 0000 UTC 24 April as the cyclone continued to move north of the *** of the initially ominous track forecasts for TC Amos to hit land,preparations for a Category 3 or Category 4 cyclone were underway in the Samoan islands and the population prepared for the *** the center of the storm moved north of the islands as a weaker storm than anticipated,the residents of the Samoan Islands were both surprised and relieved that the cyclone only gave a"glancing blow"to the islands and that the impacts were not as bad as originally *** in-depth evaluation of this particular tropical cyclone helps to shed some light on model def iciencies and can be used to help determine future model changes.

关键词： evaluation of TC forecasts TC Amos Samoan Islands

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