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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第5期23卷 1173-1184页

作者： DONG Sheng LI Songda tao shanshan College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266404China

Owing to climate change and human activity,the Qingshuigou of the Yellow River Delta(YRD)has undergone dynamic changes in erosion and ***,studying these changes is important to ensure ecological protection and sustainable *** this study,the trend of erosion-deposition evolution in the Qingshuigou was investigated based on 38 coastline phases extracted from Landsat series images of the YRD at one-year intervals from 1984 to *** periodicity of the scouring and deposition evolution was also analyzed using wavelet *** showed that the total area of the Qingshuigou was affected by deposition and erosion and that the fluctuation first increased and then *** total area reached a maximum in *** depositional area first increased and then decreased,whereas the overall erosion area *** and erosion areas showed periodic changes to some extent;however,the periodic signal intensity ***,factors including channel morphological evolution and variations in water and sediment discharge affect the spatiotemporal dynamics of erosion and deposition *** application of nonconsistency tests finally revealed that deposition area and flushing magnitude exhibited non-stationarities,which are potentially attributed to impacts from climatic change drivers.

关键词： Yellow River Delta coastline erosion and deposition remote sensing wavelet analysis

Joint Probability Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Conditions in Liaodong Bay

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第1期23卷 57-68页

作者： LIAO Zhenkun DONG Sheng tao shanshan HUA Yunfei JIA Ning College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Shuifa Planning and Design Co. Ltd.Jinan 250100China National Hazards Mitigation Service Beijing 100194China

Sea ice conditions in Liaodong Bay of China are often described by sea ice grades,which classify annual sea ice conditions based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness(AM-SIT)and annual maximum floating ice extent(AM-FIE).The joint probability distribution of AM-SIT and AM-FIE was established on the basis of their data pairs from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020 in Liaodong *** joint intensity index of the sea ice condition in the current year is calculated,and the joint classification criteria of the sea ice grades in past years are established on the basis of the joint intensity index series.A comparison of the joint criteria with the 1973 and 2022 criteria revealed that the joint criteria of the sea ice grade match well,and the joint intensity index can be used to quantify the sea ice condition over the years.A time series analysis of the sea ice grades and the joint intensity index sequences based on the joint criteria are then *** show a decreasing trend of the sea ice condition from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020,a mutation in 1990/1991,and a period of approximately 91 years of the sea ice *** addition,the Gray-Markov model(GMM)is applied to predict the joint sea ice grade and the joint intensity index of the sea ice condition series in future years,and the error between the results and the actual sea ice condition in 2020/2021 is small.

关键词： sea ice grade ice thickness floating ice extent Liaodong Bay copula

果胶酶对灵武长枣果实发育中阿拉伯半乳糖蛋白分布的影响

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植物研究 2024年第1期44卷 62-74页

作者：王静章英才陶珊珊杨雪宁夏大学生命科学学院银川750021

以3种不同浓度的果胶酶处理灵武长枣(Ziziphus jujuba‘Lingwu Changzao’)4个不同发育时期的果实,采用免疫细胞化学技术,在细胞水平上对果实阿拉伯半乳糖蛋白(AGPs)表位进行原位分析,探讨果胶酶对其不同发育时期的果实中AGPs分布的影响... 详细信息

以3种不同浓度的果胶酶处理灵武长枣(Ziziphus jujuba‘Lingwu Changzao’)4个不同发育时期的果实,采用免疫细胞化学技术,在细胞水平上对果实阿拉伯半乳糖蛋白(AGPs)表位进行原位分析,探讨果胶酶对其不同发育时期的果实中AGPs分布的影响,为明确果胶酶对果实成熟软化的影响提供解剖学依据。结果表明:JIM13、JIM8和MAC204抗体所标记的抗原荧光强弱在各时期果实的不同组织存在一定的差异。当果肉组织用较低浓度的果胶酶0.028 U·mL^(-1)(E1)处理,果皮组织结构没有明显的变化,果皮及内部薄壁细胞细胞壁表面和细胞间隙中的AGPs抗原表位减少;0.056 U·mL^(-1)(E2)和0.084 U·mL^(-1)(E3)浓度果胶酶处理的果实,果实组织细胞壁解体程度增加,果皮及内部薄壁细胞细胞壁中AGPs抗原表位检测量逐渐降低,果胶酶浓度的增加导致AGPs在果实所有表位排列的更大影响和较低的荧光信号。经果胶酶最高浓度0.084 U·mL^(-1)(E3)处理后,Calcofluor White染色显示细胞壁区域荧光也不同程度减弱或降低,AGPs分布的紊乱和抗原表位的缺失与细胞中纤维素组装的变化有关。比较分析表明,不同发育时期的果实AGPs碳水化合物的分布不同,这与组织结构的变化有关;果胶酶作用下AGPs聚糖链的缺失导致细胞壁组分之间的相关性建立和细胞壁结构的重塑受阻,诱导了整个细胞壁结构的改变,影响了果实的成熟。

关键词：果胶酶灵武长枣果实阿拉伯半乳糖蛋白免疫荧光定位

Hazard risk assessment of tropical cyclones based on joint probability theory

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第6期42卷 89-99页

作者： shanshan tao Yunfei Hua Sheng Dong College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm *** of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing *** to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong *** results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.

关键词： tropical cyclone Hong Kong trivariate copulas hazard-causing factors regional risk

Intensity Estimation of Extreme Meteorological and Hydrological Factors Induced by Tropical Cyclones Affecting Hong Kong

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2023年第2期22卷 313-323页

作者： tao shanshan HUA Yunfei DONG Sheng College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

Hong Kong is often affected by tropical *** Hong Kong observatory issues warning signals based on the impact of tropical cyclones on the *** joint frequency analysis of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong can provide a scientific basis for disaster reduction and prevention and post-disaster reconstruction of tropical ***,the maximum hourly mean wind speed(W),warning signal duration(D),maximum sea level(L),and total rainfall(R)of each tropical cyclone that affected Hong Kong from 1985 to 2019 are selected and fitted using the Gumbel,Weibull,Pearson type 3,and lognormal ***,bivariate copula functions,such as the Clayton,Frank,Gumbel-Hougaard,and Gaussian copulas,are applied to construct the joint probability models of W,D,L,and R,*** joint return periods of W and D and those of L and R are defined as the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones,*** results show that the joint return periods are good indicators of the comprehensive effect of the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical *** necessary correlation between meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones *** meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones show an upward trend in recent years.

关键词： tropical cyclone warning signal meteorological intensity hydrological intensity copula

Long-Term Statistics of Extreme Tsunami Height at Crescent City

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2017年第3期16卷 437-446页

作者： DONG Sheng ZHAI Jinjin tao shanshan College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100P.R.China

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.

关键词： earthquake tsunami maximum tsunami height interval estimation Poisson compound distribution retum period

党组织领导的组织间网络何以形成?——基于W市F社区商圈党建大联盟的经验研究

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湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版） 2024年第4期25卷 110-118页

作者：冷向明陶珊珊顾爽华中师范大学公共管理学院湖北武汉430079 复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院上海200433

党组织如何发挥其核心引领作用促进合作网络的形成,是破解基层治理难题的重要方式,也是理论界关注的重要议题。从动态视角出发,追踪W市F社区商圈党建大联盟的形成过程,发现社区党委作为组织间网络形成的关键行动者,通过公共空间营造与... 详细信息

党组织如何发挥其核心引领作用促进合作网络的形成,是破解基层治理难题的重要方式,也是理论界关注的重要议题。从动态视角出发,追踪W市F社区商圈党建大联盟的形成过程,发现社区党委作为组织间网络形成的关键行动者,通过公共空间营造与社会资本培育塑造社区公共精神进而实现价值共创;通过行政吸纳与情感治理规范主体行为从而促进网络规则共建;通过合作生产与互惠交换增进共同利益以实现利益共享,成功构建了以党组织为核心的组织间网络并保持了该网络的“良善”运转。

关键词：组织网络党建引领社区治理商圈党建大联盟

Joint Occurrence Period of Wind Speed and Wave Height Based on Both Service Term and Risk Probability

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2012年第4期11卷 488-494页

作者： DONG Sheng FAN Dunqiu tao shanshan Colleze of Eneineerinz Ocean University of ChinaOinzdao 266100.P.R.China Drilling Technology Research Institute Shengli Oil FieldDongying 257017P.R.China

Return periods calculated for different environmental conditions are key parameters for ocean platform *** codes for offshore structure design give no consideration about the correlativity among multi-loads and over-estimate design *** frequently leads to not only higher investment but also distortion of structural reliability *** definition of design return period in existing codes and industry criteria in China are *** joint return periods of different ocean environmental parameters are determined from the view of service term and danger *** on a bivariate equivalent maximum entropy distribution,joint design parameters are estimated for the concomitant wave height and wind speed at a site in the Bohai *** calculated results show that even if the return period of each environmental factor,such as wave height or wind speed,is small,their combinations can lead to larger joint return *** design criteria for joint return period associated with concomitant environmental conditions will reduce structural size and lead to lower investment of ocean platforms for the exploitation of marginal oil field.

关键词： wave height wind speed joint return periods service term risk analysis

Stochastic Model for Estimating Extreme Water Level in Port and Coastal Engineering Design

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2018年第4期17卷 744-752页

作者： DONG Sheng CHEN Chengchao tao shanshan GAO Junguo College of Engineering Ocean University of China

Extreme water level is an important consideration when designing coastal protection structures. However, frequency analysis recommended by standard codes only considers the annual maximum water level, whereas water levels should actually be regarded as a combination of astronomical tide and storm surge. The two impacting factors are both random variables, and this paper discusses their dependency structures and proposes a new joint probability method to determine extreme design water levels. The lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson type 3, traditional maximum entropy, and modified maximum entropy distributions are applied to fit univariate data of astronomical tides and storm surges separately, and the bivariate normal, Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank and Clayton copulas are then utilized to construct their joint probability distributions. To ensure that the new design method is suitable for use with typhoon data, the annual occurrence frequency of typhoon processes is considered and corresponding bivariate compound probability distributions are proposed. Based on maximum water level data obtained from Hengmen hydrological station in the Pearl River Basin, China, these probability models are applied to obtain designs for extreme water levels using the largest sum of the astronomical tide and storm surge obtained under fixed joint return periods. These design values provide an improved approach for determining the necessary height of coastal and offshore structures.

关键词： extreme water level astronomical tide storm surge typhoon copula

Joint Return Value Estimation of Significant Wave Heights and Wind Speeds with Bivariate Copulas

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中国海洋大学学报:英文版 2023年第5期22卷 1181-1192页

作者： tao shanshan DONG Sheng LIN Yifan GUEDES SOARES Carlos College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Huadian Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.Beijing 100070China Instituto Superior Técnico Universidade de LisboaLisboa 1049-001Portugal

The joint design criteria of significant wave heights and wind speeds are quite important for the structural reliability of fixed offshore ***,the design method that regards different ocean environmental variables as independent is *** the present study,we introduce a bivariate sample consisting of the maximum wave heights and concomitant wind speeds of the threshold by using the peak-over-threshold and declustering *** selecting the appropriate bivariate copulas and univariate distributions and blocking the sample into years,the bivariate compound distribution of annual extreme wave heights and concomitant wind speeds is *** joint design criteria,namely,the joint probability density method and the conditional probability method,are applied to obtain the joint return values of significant wave heights and wind *** show that(28.5±0.5)m s^(-1)is the frequently obtained wind speed based on the Atlantic dataset,and these joint design values are more appropriate than those calculated by univariate analysis in the fatigue design.

关键词： joint design wave height wind speed compound distribution copula