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Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19:Modeling and cost-effective optimal control

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 569-600页

作者： sonu lamba Tanuja Das Prashant K.Srivastava Department of Mathematics Indian Institute of Technology Patna Bihta–801106PatnaBiharIndia Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of New Brunswick FrederictonNBE3B 5A3Canada

This study introduces a novel SI2HR model,where“I2”denotes two infectious classes representing asymptomatic and symptomatic infections,aiming to investigate and analyze the cost-effective optimal control measures for managing *** model incorporates a novel concept of infectious density-induced additional screening(IDIAS)and accounts for treatment ***,the model considers the possibility of reinfection and the loss of immunity in individuals who have previously *** validate and calibrate the proposed model,real data from November–December 2022 in Hong Kong are *** estimated parameters obtained from this calibration process are valuable for prediction purposes and facilitate further numerical *** analysis of the model reveals that delays in screening,treatment,and quarantine contribute to an increase in the basic reproduction number R0,indicating a tendency towards *** particular,from the elasticity of R0,we deduce that normalized sensitivity indices of baseline screening rate(θ),quarantine rates(γ,αs),and treatment rate(α)are negative,which shows that delaying any of these may cause huge surge in R0,ultimately increases the disease ***,by the contour plots,we note the two-parameter behavior of the infectives(both symptomatic and asymptomatic).Expanding upon the model analysis,an optimal control problem(OCP)is formulated,incorporating three control measures:precautionary interventions,boosted IDIAS,and boosted *** Pontryagin's maximum principle and the forward-backward sweep method are employed to solve the *** numerical simulations highlight that enhanced screening and treatment,coupled with preventive interventions,can effectively contribute to sustainable disease ***,the cost-effectiveness analysis(CEA)conducted in this study suggests that boosting IDIAS alone is the most economically efficient and cost-effective approach compared to other *** CEA resul

关键词： COVID-19 IDIAS Estimation Prediction Optimal control Cost-effectiveness analysis

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