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Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Disasters and Integrated Risk Management in China

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第4期8卷 493-497页

作者： shijin wang Lanyue Zhou State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences

High-risk areas for glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) disasters in China are mainly concentrated in the middle-eastern Himalayas and Nyainqe?ntanglha(Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains), Tibetan Plateau. In the past 20 years, glaciers in these regions have retreated and thinned rapidly as a response to regional climate warming,leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing glacial lakes. These areas are located in the border belt between the Indian and the Eurasian plates, where tectonic seismic activity is also frequent and intense. Earthquakes have often compromised the stability of mountain slopes, glaciers, and moraine dams, resulting in an imbalance in the state of glacial lakes and an increase of loose materials in valleys. It is foreseeable that the possibility of GLOFs and disaster occurrence will be great in the context of frequent earthquakes and continued climate warming. This article presents the temporal and spatial characteristics of GLOF disasters, as well as the conditions and mechanisms of GLOF disaster formation,and proposes an integrated risk management strategy to cope with GLOF disasters. It aims to facilitate the mitigation of the impacts of GLOF disasters on mountain economic and social systems, and improve disaster risk analysis, as well as the capability of risk management and disaster prevention and reduction.

关键词： China Glacial lake outburst flood disasters Risk management Tibetan Plateau

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of a Temperate-Glacier's Active-Layer Temperature and Its Responses to Climate Change: A Case Study of Baishui Glacier No. 1, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Earth Science 2014年第4期25卷 727-734页

作者： shijin wang Jiankuo Du Yuanqing He State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteChinese Academy of Sciences

Based on the historical documents and measured data from the active-layer temperature （ALT） at A, B and C locations （4 670, 4 720 and 4 770 m a.s.l.） on Baishui Glacier No. 1, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, this paper analyzed spatial-temporal characteristics of ALT and its relationship with air temperature, and revealed the response of the active layer ice temperature towards climate change in the monitoring period. The results showed that the influence of air temperature on the active-layer ice temperature had a hysteresis characteristic on the upper of ablation zone and the lag period in- creased gradually with the altitude elevating. The decrease amplitude of ALT in the accumulation pe- riod was far below its increase magnitude in the ablation period. At the same time, the mean glacier ice temperatures at 10 m depth （T10） in A, B and C profile were obviously higher than most of glaciers previously studied. Measured data also showed that the mean ALT increased by 0.24℃ in 0.5-8.5 m depth of the C profile during 28 years from July 11, 1982 to July 10, 2009.

关键词： temperate-glacier active-layer temperature temporal and spatial characteristics climate change.

Air route network optimization in fragmented airspace based on cellular automata

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2017年第3期30卷 1184-1195页

作者： shijin wang Xi CAO Haiyun LI Qingyun LI Xu HANG Yanjun wang College of Civil Aviation Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Air Traffic Control Division Central-south Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau

Air route network optimization,one of the essential parts of the airspace planning,is an effective way to optimize airspace resources,increase airspace capacity,and alleviate air traffic congestion.However,little has been done on the optimization of air route network in the fragmented airspace caused by prohibited,restricted,and dangerous areas（PRDs）.In this paper,an air route network optimization model is developed with the total operational cost as the objective function while airspace restriction,air route network capacity,and non-straight-line factors（NSLF） are taken as major constraints.A square grid cellular space,Moore neighbors,a fixed boundary,together with a set of rules for solving the route network optimization model are designed based on cellular automata.The empirical traffic of airports with the largest traffic volume in each of the 9 flight information regions in China's Mainland is collected as the origin-destination（OD） airport pair demands.Based on traffic patterns,the model generates 35 air routes which successfully avoids 144 PRDs.Compared with the current air route network structure,the number of nodes decreases by 41.67%,while the total length of flight segments and air routes drop by 32.03% and 5.82% respectively.The NSLF decreases by 5.82% with changes in the total length of the air route network.More importantly,the total operational cost of the whole network decreases by 6.22%.The computational results show the potential benefits of the model and the advantage of the algorithm.Optimization of air route network can significantly reduce operational cost while ensuring operation safety.

关键词： Air route network planning Airspace restriction Cellular automata Network capacity Optimization of nodes

Risk prevention and control strategies for the severely affected areas of snow disaster in the Three Rivers Source Region(TRSR), China

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2019年第3期11卷 248-252页

作者： shijin wang ShengYun Chen YanQiang Wei State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhouGansu 730000China Qinghai Province Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Environmental Process Academy of Plateau Science and SustainabilityQinghai Normal UniversityXiningQinghai 810008China Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhouGansu 730000China

Historically,frequent and heavy snow disaster(SD)has caused serious livestock death and casualties,resulting in a devastating impact on animal husbandry development in the Three Rivers Source Region(TRSR).From winter in 2018 to spring in 2019,the largest SD occurred in this area over the past 10 years,especially in core zones of the Lancang River Source Region.Field research results show that the main causes of the major SD include weak infrastructure(i.e.,roads,communications,warm sheds,and insufficient forage reserve),low rate of domestic animals for sale before the SD,and low loss settlement rate.SD occurrence could furtherly reduce the ability of disaster prevention,mitigation and relief of disaster loss.In the future,heavily affected SD areas should improve the forecasting ability of snowfall incidents,strengthen infrastructure construction,implement grass and livestock balance strategies,optimize livestock structure,improve loss settlement rate,and develop a modern compound model of animal husbandry development model that combines breeding,slaughtering and deep processing of animal product.

关键词： Three Rivers Source Region snow disaster severely affected area risk prevention control strategy

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激励政策对我国新能源汽车推广应用的影响

技术经济 2024年第4期43卷 64-74页

作者：王世进蒯乐伊赵丽君江苏师范大学商学院徐州221116 华东理工大学商学院上海200237

新能源汽车在推广过程中,面临着市场失灵问题,不利于新能源汽车产业的长期健康发展,还会导致资源配置效率低下。因此,为了实现资源合理配置,推动新能源汽车产业有序发展,需要政府出台一系列的激励政策。本文从单一政策效果、政策协同效... 详细信息

新能源汽车在推广过程中,面临着市场失灵问题,不利于新能源汽车产业的长期健康发展,还会导致资源配置效率低下。因此,为了实现资源合理配置,推动新能源汽车产业有序发展,需要政府出台一系列的激励政策。本文从单一政策效果、政策协同效果、中介效应等多角度分析激励政策对新能源汽车推广应用的影响,并深入研究激励政策与新能源汽车推广应用之间的非线性关系。根据实证结果,本文得到以下结论:①补贴政策、充电基础设施以及政府购买都能够显著促进新能源汽车推广应用;②人口越多、收入水平越高、环境污染越严重的地方,新能源汽车推广应用程度越大;③政府购买与新能源汽车推广应用之间存在倒U型关系;④企业研发创新能力在激励政策与新能源汽车推广应用之间发挥中介作用;⑤补贴政策的实施效果存在区域性差异,在第一批试点城市,补贴政策的效果不再明显,甚至对新能源汽车推广应用产生了负面影响,而在第二批试点城市中,补贴政策依然能够显著促进新能源汽车推广应用;⑥补贴政策能够显著促进纯电动汽车推广应用,但对插电式混合动力汽车以及燃料电池汽车推广应用表现出负效应。最后,根据研究结果,本文为促进新能源汽车推广应用提供了相关政策建议。

关键词：新能源汽车激励政策政府补贴推广应用

长三角城市群数字经济发展对区域碳排放强度的影响研究

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物流科技 2024年第1期47卷 130-135页

作者：薛智超王世进江苏师范大学商学院江苏徐州221116

文章运用2012—2019年我国长三角26个城市的面板数据作为研究样本,利用双向固定效应模型分析了长三角城市群数字经济发展对区域碳排放强度的影响,并引入中介变量产业结构,然后在此基础上进行异质性分析。研究发现:第一,长三角城市群数... 详细信息

文章运用2012—2019年我国长三角26个城市的面板数据作为研究样本,利用双向固定效应模型分析了长三角城市群数字经济发展对区域碳排放强度的影响,并引入中介变量产业结构,然后在此基础上进行异质性分析。研究发现:第一,长三角城市群数字经济的发展显著降低了区域碳排放强度;第二,引入中介变量产业结构,发现数字经济能通过优化产业结构来降低碳排放强度;第三,异质性分析结果显示,长三角数字经济发展对区域碳排放强度的影响具有显著的异质性。

关键词：长三角数字经济碳达峰碳中和

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产业智能化、产业结构优化升级与资源错配

经济研究导刊 2024年第5期 38-40页

作者：朱星垚王世进江苏师范大学商学院江苏徐州221116

为了科学研究产业结构优化升级、产业智能化与资源错配之间的影响,基于2013—2020年全国30个省及自治区的面板数据,运用中介效应探讨产业智能化、产业结构优化升级与资源错配之间的相互关系。研究发现:第一,在中介效应分析中,将产业结... 详细信息

为了科学研究产业结构优化升级、产业智能化与资源错配之间的影响,基于2013—2020年全国30个省及自治区的面板数据,运用中介效应探讨产业智能化、产业结构优化升级与资源错配之间的相互关系。研究发现:第一,在中介效应分析中,将产业结构优化升级作为中介变量,对地区资源错配的影响显著。第二,在不同的资源错配类型中,产业结构优化升级随着地区资本配置的不断增加,对资源错配的影响曲线为倒“U”形,表明产业结构升级对资源错配有先加剧后改善的影响。第三,在分地区的回归中发现,在东部地区,产业智能化改善资源错配,产业结构优化加剧资源错配;在中部地区,产业智能化加剧劳动力错配,产业结构优化改善资源错配。

关键词：产业智能化产业结构优化升级资源错配中介效应

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面向序列诊断的强化计算机自适应测验方法

模式识别与人工智能 2024年第1期37卷 13-26页

作者：刘子瑞吴金泽姚方舟刘淇陈恩红沙晶王士进苏喻中国科学技术大学计算机科学与技术学院合肥230027 科大讯飞股份有限公司合肥230088 合肥师范学院计算机与人工智能学院合肥230061

计算机自适应测验旨在根据学生历史表现为学生选择合适的题目,快速有效地测量学生的真实能力.然而在智能教育场景下,现有自适应测验策略仍存在目标复杂和知识稀疏等问题.为此,文中构建用于智能场景的可精准测评学生知识能力的面向序列... 详细信息

计算机自适应测验旨在根据学生历史表现为学生选择合适的题目,快速有效地测量学生的真实能力.然而在智能教育场景下,现有自适应测验策略仍存在目标复杂和知识稀疏等问题.为此,文中构建用于智能场景的可精准测评学生知识能力的面向序列诊断的强化计算机自适应测验方法,包括基于序列诊断的学生模拟器和学生画像模型,并针对真实场景中自适应测验的目标复杂性,设计薄弱点准确率、预测表现耦合、自适应测验时长、测验异常率和测验的难度结构这5个评价指标.进一步地,提出基于强化学习的计算机自适应测验选题策略,利用双通道自注意力学习及矛盾学习模块缓解知识稀疏的问题.真实数据上的实验表明,文中选题策略不仅可高效测量学生真实能力,还可优化学生的作答体验,同时选择的题目也具有一定的可解释性,从而为智能教育场景下的计算机自适应测验提供一个可行方案.

关键词：智能教育个性化教育计算机自适应测验强化学习 Q 学习

Characteristics of total suspended particulates in the atmosphere of Yulong Snow Mountain,southwestern China

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2018年第3期10卷 207-218页

作者： HeWen Niu XiaoFei Shi Gang Li JunHua Yang shijin wang Yulong Snow Mountain Glacier and Environmental Observation Research Station State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric SciencesNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhouGansu 730000China Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of China LanzhouGansu 730020China College of Earth Environmental Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhouGansu 730000China

The measurement of black carbon （BC） and organic carbon （OC）, dust in total suspended particulates （TSP） was carried out at Yulong Snow Mountain （Mt. Yulong） and Ganhaizi Basin, in the Mt. Yulong region, southwestern China. TSP samples were analyzed using a thermal/optical reflectance carbon analyzer. Results show that average BC and OC concentrations in TSP in the Mt. Yulong region were 1.61±1.15 μg/m3 and 2.96±1.59 μg/m3, respectively. Statistical results demonstrated that there were significant differences in mean BC and OC contents between Ganhaizi Basin and Mt. Yulong at the 0.05 level. Strong correlations between BC and OC indicate their common dominant emission sources and transport processes. Temporal variations ofBC, OC, and optical attenuation （ATN） values were consistent with each other in carbonaceous aerosols. The ratios of OC/BC in monsoon season were significantly higher than in non-monsoon in aerosols from Ganhaizi, which is closely related to the formation of secondary organic carbon （SOC） and extensive motor vehicle emissions from tourism activities. The temporal variations of BC, OC and ATN in carbonaceous aerosols in Ganhaizi and Mt. Yulong were totally different, probably due to elevation difference and diverse tourism activity intensity between the two sites. Time-averaged aerosol optical depth （AOD） at the wavelength of 550 nm in Mt. Yulong was higher than that of the inland of the Tibetan Plateau （TP）. Source apportionment indicated that intensive exhaust emissions from tourism vehicles were the main local sources of atmospheric pollutant in the Mt. Yulong region. Biomass-burning emissions released from South Asia could penetrate into the inland of the TP under the transport of summer monsoon. Further study is needed to assess light absorption and radiative forcing of carbonaceous aerosols, and modeling research in combination with long-term in-situ observations of light-absorbing particulates （LAPs） in the TP is also urgently needed in future work.

关键词： black carbon total suspended particulates LAPs Tibetan Plateau