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Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall over Different Terrain Features in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin during the Warm Seasons of 2016–20

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 915-936页

作者： Qian WEI Jianhua SUN shenming fu Yuanchun ZHANG Xiaofang WANG Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences(IAP/CAS)Beijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rian Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological Administration(CMA)Wuhan 430205China

Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variations over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin.For all three types of terrain(i.e.,mountain,foothill,and plain),the amount of TR and SDHR both maximize in June/July,and the contribution of SDHR to TR(CST)peaks in August(amount:23%;frequency:1.74%).Foothill rainfall is characterized by a high TR amount and a high CST(in amount);mountain rainfall is characterized by a high TR frequency but a small CST(in amount);and plain rainfall shows a low TR amount and frequency,but a high CST(in amount).Overall,stations with high TR(amount and frequency)are mainly located over the mountains and in the foothills,while those with high SDHR(amount and frequency)are mainly concentrated in the foothills and plains close to mountainous areas.For all three types of terrain,the diurnal variations of both TR and SDHR exhibit a double peak(weak early morning and strong late afternoon)and a phase shift from the early-morning peak to the late-afternoon peak from May to August.Around the late-afternoon peak,the amount of TR and SDHR in the foothills is larger than over the mountains and plains.The TR intensity in the foothills increases significantly from midnight to afternoon,suggesting that thermal instability may play an important role in this process.

关键词： short duration heavy rainfall diurnal variation foothill rainfall

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Improved forecasting via physics-guided machine learning as exemplified using“21·7”extreme rainfall event in Henan

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1652-1674页

作者： Qi ZHONG Zhicha ZHANG Xiuping YAO Shaoyu HOU shenming fu Yong CAO Linguo JING China Meteorological Administration Training Center Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310017China Hebei Provincial Weather Modification Center Shijiazhuang 050020China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081China School of Computer Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and uniqueness.Taking the example of the“21·7”extreme precipitation event(17–21 July 2021)in Henan Province,this study explores the potential of using physics-guided machine learning to improve the accuracy of forecasting the intensity and location of extreme precipitation.Three physics-guided ways of embedding physical features,fusing physical model forecasts and revised loss function are used,i.e.,(1)analyzing the anomalous circulation and thermodynamical factors,(2)analyzing the multi-model forecast bias and the associated underlying reasons for it,and(3)using professional forecasting knowledge to design the loss function,and the corresponding results are used as input for machine learning to improve the forecasting accuracy.The results indicate that by learning the relationship between anomalous physical features and heavy precipitation,the forecasting of precipitation intensity is improved significantly,but the location is rarely adjusted and more false alarms appear.Possible reasons for this are as follows.The anomalous features used here mainly contain information about large-scale systems and factors which are consistent with the model precipitation deviation;moreover,the samples of extreme precipitation are sparse and so the algorithm used here is simple.However,by combining“good and different”multi models with machine learning,the advantages of each model are extracted and then the location of the precipitation center in the forecast is improved significantly.Therefore,by combining the appropriate anomalous features with multi-model fusion,an integrated improvement of the forecast of the rainfall intensity and location is achieved.Overall,this study is a novel exploration to improve the refined forecasting of heavy precipitation with extreme intensity and high variability,and provides a reference for the deep fusion of

关键词： Extreme precipitation event Refined assessment Anomalous physical features Multi-model fusion Machine learning

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Energy Paths that Sustain the Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall over South China and Their Contrasts to the Frontal Rainfall: A Case Study

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1519-1535页

作者： shenming fu Jingping ZHANG Yali LUO Wenying YANG Jianhua SUN International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China,which is famous for its destructive power,is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field.Insufficient understanding of the key mechanisms underlying this type of event is the root cause.Since understanding the energetics is crucial to understanding the evolutions of various types of weather systems,a general methodology for investigating energetics of torrential rainfall is provided in this study.By applying this methodology to a persistent torrential rainfall event which had concurrent frontal and warm-sector precipitation,the first physical image on the energetics of the warm-sector torrential rainfall is established.This clarifies the energy sources for producing the warm-sector rainfall during this event.For the first time,fundamental similarities and differences between the warm-sector and frontal torrential rainfall are shown in terms of energetics.It is found that these two types of rainfall mainly differed from each other in the lower-tropospheric dynamical features,and their key differences lay in energy sources.Scale interactions(mainly through downscale energy cascade and transport)were a dominant factor for the warm-sector torrential rainfall during this event,whereas,for the frontal torrential rainfall,they were only of secondary importance.Three typical signals in the background environment are found to have supplied energy to the warm-sector torrential rainfall,with the quasi-biweekly oscillation having contributed the most.

关键词： torrential rainfall warm-sector rainfall frontal rainfall South China scale interactions baroclinic energy conversion

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Multiscale Combined Action and Disturbance Characteristics of Pre-summer Extreme Precipitation Events over South China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第5期40卷 824-842页

作者： Hongbo LIU Ruojing YAN Bin WANG Guanghua CHEN Jian LING shenming fu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency band.However,multiscale combined modes of the synoptic and three low-frequency bands[10-20-d(quasi-biweekly,QBW);15-40-d(quasi-monthly,QM);and 20-60-d(intraseasonal)]accounted for the majority(63%)of the EPEs,and the precipitation intensity on the peak wet day was larger than that of the single synoptic mode.It was found that EPEs form within strong southwesterly anomalous flows characterized by either lower-level cyclonic circulation over SC or a deep trough over eastern China.Bandpass-filtered disturbances revealed the direct precipitating systems and their life cycles.Synoptic-scale disturbances are dominated by mid-high latitude troughs,and the cyclonic anomalies originate from downstream of the Tibetan Plateau(TP).Given the warm and moist climate state,synoptic-scale northeasterly flows can even induce EPEs.At the QBW and QM scales,the disturbances originate from the tropical Pacific,downstream of the TP,or mid-high latitudes(QBW only).Each is characterized by cyclonic-anticyclonic wave trains and intense southwesterly flows between them within a region of large horizontal pressure gradient.The intraseasonal disturbances are confined to tropical regions and influence SC by marginal southwesterly flows.It is concluded that low-frequency disturbances provide favorable background conditions for EPEs over SC and synoptic-scale disturbances ultimately induce EPEs on the peak wet days.Both should be simultaneously considered for EPE predictions over SC.

关键词： extreme precipitation event dominant frequency band multiscale combined action disturbance chara-cteristics South China

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Main Energy Paths and Energy Cascade Processes of the Two Types of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第2期34卷 129-143页

作者： Yuanchun ZHANG Jianhua SUN shenming fu Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China 1nternational Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Two types of persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Basin were determined in a recent statistical study： type A, whose precipitation is mainly located to the south of the Yangtze River; and type B, whose precipitation is mainly located to the north of the river. The present study investigated these two PHRE types using a newly derived set of energy equations to show the scale interaction and main energy paths contributing to the persistence of the precipitation. The main results were as follows. The available potential energy （APE） and kinetic energy （KE） associated with both PHRE types generally increased upward in the troposphere, with the energy of the type-A PHREs stronger than that of the type-B PHREs （except for in the middle troposphere）. There were two main common and universal energy paths of the two PHRE types：（1） the baroclinic energy conversion from APE to KE was the dominant energy source for the evolution of large-scale background circulations; and （2） the downscaled energy cascade processes of KE and APE were vital for sustaining the eddy flow, which directly caused the PHREs. The significant differences between the two PHRE types mainly appeared in the lower troposphere, where the baroclinic energy conversion associated with the eddy flow in type-A PHREs was from KE to APE, which reduced the intensity of the precipitation-related eddy flow; whereas, the conversion in type-B PHREs was from APE to KE, which enhanced the eddy flow.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall event energy cascade process large-scale background circulation precipitation-related eddy flow

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Typical Circulation Patterns and Associated Mechanisms for Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley during 1981–2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2167-2182页

作者： Huijie WANG Jianhua SUN shenming fu Yuanchun ZHANG Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated.The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere.The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events,which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent.Type-C events have“two ridges and one trough”in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent,but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events.The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type.The location of the South Asian high(SAH)in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types,but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward.Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020,but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen,which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall events Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley Rossby wave energy dispersion water vapor paths cold air paths

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On the Variation of Divergent Flow： An Eddy-flux Form Equation Based on the Quasi-geostrophic Balance and Its Application

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第5期34卷 599-612页

作者： shenming fu Jie CAO Xingwen JIANG Jianhua SUN International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Laboratory of Cloud Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China fnstitute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Chengdu 610072 China

Based on basic equations in isobaric coordinates and the quasi-geostrophic balance,an eddy-flux form budget equation of the divergent wind has been derived. This newly derived budget equation has evident physical significance. It can show the intensity of a weather system,the variation of its flow pattern,and the feedback effects from smaller-scale systems(eddy flows). The usefulness of this new budget equation is examined by calculating budgets for the strong divergent-wind centers associated with the South Asian high,and the strong divergence centers over the Tibetan Plateau,during summer(June–August) 2010. The results indicate that the South Asian high significantly interacts with eddy flows. Compared with effects from the mean flow(background circulation),the eddy flows’ feedback influences are of greater importance in determining the flow pattern of the South Asian high. Although the positive divergence centers over the Tibetan Plateau intensify through different mechanisms,certain similarities are also obvious. First,the effects from mean flow are dominant in the rapid intensification process of the positive divergence center. Second,an intense offsetting mechanism exists between the effects associated with the eddy flows’ horizontal component and the effects related to the eddy flows’ convection activities,which weakens the total effects of the eddy flows significantly. Finally,compared with the effects associated with the convection activities of the mean flow,the accumulated effects of the eddy flows’ convection activities may be more favorable for the enhancement of the positive-divergence centers.

关键词： divergent wind quasi-geostrophic balance scale interactions South Asia high

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A Review of Research on Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall in China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第12期36卷 1299-1307页

作者： Jianhua SUN Yuanchun ZHANG Ruixin LIU shenming fu fuyou TIAN Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Beijing Municipal Weather Forecast Center Beijing 100089China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) events in China have been investigated for many years. Studies have investigated the synoptic weather conditions during WSHR formation, the categories and general features, the triggering mechanism, and structural features of mesoscale convective systems during these rainfall events. The main results of WSHR studies in recent years are summarized in this paper. However, WSHR caused by micro- to mesoscale systems often occurs abruptly and locally, making both numerical model predictions and objective forecasts difficult. further research is needed in three areas:(1) The mechanisms controlling WSHR events need to be understood to clarify the specific effects of various factors and indicate the influences of these factors under different synoptic background circulations. This would enable an understanding of the mechanisms of formation, maintenance, and organization of the convections in WSHR events.(2) In addition to South China, WSHR events also occur during the concentrated summer precipitation in the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Valley and North China. A high spatial and temporal resolution dataset should be used to analyze the distribution and environmental conditions, and to further compare the differences and similarities of the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of WSHR events in different regions.(3) More studies of the mechanisms are required, as well as improvements to the model initial conditions and physical processes based on multi-source observations, especially the description of the triggering process and the microphysical parameterization. This will improve the numerical prediction of WSHR events.

关键词： warm-sector heavy rainfall synoptic weather conditions triggering mechanism South China

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A Case Study on MJO Energy Transport Path in a Local Multi-scale Interaction Framework

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1929-1944页

作者： Yuanwen ZHANG Guiwan CHEN Jian LING shenming fu Chongyin LI State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(UCAS) Beijing 100049China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

A new local kinetic energy(KE)budget for the Madden−Julian Oscillation(MJO)is constructed in a multi-scale framework.This energy budget framework allows us to analyze the local energy conversion processes of the MJO with the high-frequency disturbances and the low-frequency background state.The KE budget analysis is applied to a pronounced MJO event during the DYNAMO field campaign to investigate the KE transport path of the MJO.The work done by the pressure gradient force and the conversion of available potential energy at the MJO scale are the two dominant processes that affect the MJO KE tendency.The MJO winds transport MJO KE into the MJO convection region in the lower troposphere while it is transported away from the MJO convection region in the upper troposphere.The energy cascade process is relatively weak,but the interaction between high-frequency disturbances and the MJO plays an important role in maintaining the high-frequency disturbances within the MJO convection.The MJO KE mainly converts to interaction KE between MJO and high-frequency disturbances over the area where the MJO zonal wind is strong.This interaction KE over the MJO convection region is enhanced through its flux convergence and further transport KE to the high-frequency disturbances.This process is conducive to maintaining the MJO convection.This study highlights the importance of KE interaction between the MJO and the high-frequency disturbances in maintaining the MJO convection.

关键词： Madden−Julian Oscillation energy budget multi-scale interaction energy cascade kinetic energy

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Simulation of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems in Northern China：Lightning Activities and Storm Structure

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第1期33卷 85-100页

作者： Wanli LI Xiushu QIE shenming fu Debin SU Yonghai SHEN Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Meteorological Administration Training Center Beijing 100081 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Meteorological Observation Center of Beijing Meteorological Bureau Beijing 100089

Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems（QLMCSs） in northern China were simulated using the WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting） model and the 3D-Var（three-dimensional variational） analysis system of the ARPS（Advanced Regional Prediction System） model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.

关键词： quasi-linear mesoscale convective system,Weather Research and Forecasting model,Advanced Regional Prediction System model,precipitation and non-precipitation ice

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