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Wuhan University Journal of Natural sciences 2005年第4期10卷 779-784页

作者： ZHANG Ren-jun 1,2.1. Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment, chinese academy of sciences,{2., sichuan, china 2. Graduated School of the chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10003., china chinese academy of {2. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chengdu Sichuan China (GRID:grid.9227.e) (ISNI:***) Graduated School of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China (GRID:grid.9227.e) (ISNI:***)

Based on the study of visitors' individual spatial behaviors, a tourists'spatial behavior simulator (TSBS) to assess the carrying capacity of tourist resorts was developed,TSBS employs GIS (Geographic Information System) to manage the spatial data,and Multi-Agent systemto simulate the actions of individual visitors. By utilizing TSBS, visitors' travel patterns such aslocation, cost, and state can be analyzed and predicted. Based on this analysis and prediction, themodel of assessing the carrying capacity of resorts is built. Our results show that TSBS will be aneffective tool to accurately assess the carrying capacity of tourist resorts.

关键词： tourist resort carrying capacity TSBS GIS Multi-Agent simulator

Monitoring the Cultivated Slope Land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Remote Sensing and GIS

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural sciences 2006年第4期11卷 915-921页

作者： ZHOU Jieming1, ZHOU Qigang 2. 3.,HUANG Zhiqin 2. 3. 4 1. The Faculty of Geography and Resources Science, sichuan Normal University, {3. 610066, sichuan, china 2. Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment, chinese academy of sciences, chengdu 610041, sichuan, china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, china 4. Information Center of Land and Resources Department of sichuan Province, chengdu 610041, sichuan, china The Faculty of Geography Resources Science Sichuan Normal University 610066 Chengdu Sichuan China Institute of mountain Hazards Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences 610041 Chengdu Sichuan China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences 100049 Beijing China Information Center of Land Resources Department of sichuan Province 610041 Chengdu Sichuan China

By means of combining auto-extraction with manual interpretation, the current distribution information about cultivated land is obtained. The distribution information of 1992.is extracted from the dynamic polygons of 2.02. The monitoring mini-system of the cultivated slope land is established. In the system, detailed surveys, focused on the resources of cultivated slope land, are carried out. The results indicate that the area of the cultivated slope land is very large. Meanwhile, there are lots of cultivated steep slopes with gradient above 3.°. The areas of steep land cultivated had been slowly reduced from 1992.to 2.02. At the same time, the pressures of returning farm land to forestry are great in all counties. The conflicts between population growth, insufficient grain supply and stagnant economic development sharpen increasingly. It is inevitable to improve the agricultural structure.

关键词： slope land cultivated remote sensing geography information system (GIS) the pressure of returning farm land to forestry Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Based on Support Vector Machine

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural sciences 2006年第4期11卷 897-900页

作者： YUAN Lifeng 1, 2., ZHANG Youshui 3. 1. Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment, chinese academy of sciences,{2., sichuan, china 2. Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3. Institute of Geographical sciences and Natural Resources Research, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100101, china Institute of mountain Hazards Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences 610041 Chengdu Sichuan China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences 100049 Beijing China Institute of Geographical sciences Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences 100101 Beijing China

Seven factors, including the maximum volume of once flow , occurrence frequency of debris flow , watershed area , main channel length , watershed relative height difference , valley incision density and the length ratio of sediment supplement are chosen as evaluation factors of debris flow hazard degree. Using support vector machine （SVM） theory, we selected 2.9 basic data of 3. debris flow channels in Yunnan Province as learning samples in this study. We create a debris flow hazard assessment model based on SVM. The model was validated though instance applications and showed encouraging results.

关键词： debris flow hazard assessment support vector machine (SVM)

Risk Analysis on Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Blind Number Theory

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural sciences 2007年第4期12卷 669-676页

作者： ZHANG Ji1,2.YU Sujun3.. Key Laboratory of mountain Hazards and Surface Process,chinese {2. of sciences/Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment,chinese {2. of sciences,chengdu 610041,sichuan,china 2. Graduate University of the{12.,Beijing 100049,china 3. School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,chengdu 610041,sichuan,china Key Laboratory of mountain Hazards and Surface Process Chinese Academy ofSciences/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041Sichuan China

Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness, fuzziness, grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system. Based on fuzzy theory, a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information. Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory. The probable value ＂＊＂ matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corresponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algorithm as well as the subjective reliability ＂×＂ matrix. And then a graph of ＂groundwater carrying capacity v.s. accumulative reliability＂ can be gained Based on the graph, fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got. Thus, a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained, with comprehensive analysis to the state of society, economy technology and ecology.

关键词： blind number theory groundwater resources carrying capacity evaluation risk analysis

Impacts of permafrost changes on alpine ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1156-1169页

作者： WANG Genxu1,3., LI Yuanshou2., WU Qingbai2.& WANG Yibo3.1. Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment,{3.,{2., china 2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,{3., Lanzhou 73.000, china 3. Resource and Environment School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 1. Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China 3. Resource and Environment School Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China

Alpine cold ecosystem with permafrost environment is quite sensitive to climatic changes and the changes in permafrost can significantly affect the alpine ecosystem. The vegetation coverage, grassland biomass and soil nutrient and texture are selected to indicate the regime of alpine cold ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The interactions between alpine ecosystem and permafrost were investigated with the depth of active layer, permafrost thickness and mean annual ground temperature (MAGTs). Based on the statistics model of GPTR for MAGTs and annual air temperatures, an analysis method was developed to analyze the impacts of permafrost changes on the alpine ecosystems. Under the climate change and human engineering activities, the permafrost change and its impacts on alpine ecosystems in the permafrost region between the Kunlun mountains and the Tanggula Range of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are studied in this paper. The results showed that the per- mafrost changes have a different influence on different alpine ecosystems. With the increase in the thickness of active layer, the vegetation cover and biomass of the alpine cold meadow exhibit a significant conic reduction, the soil organic matter content of the alpine cold meadow ecosystem shows an exponential decrease, and the surface soil materials become coarse and gravelly. The alpine cold steppe ecosystem, however, seems to have a relatively weak relation to the permafrost environment. Those relationships resulted in the fact that the distribution area of alpine cold meadow decreased by 7.98% and alpine cold swamp decreased by 2..11% under the permafrost environment degradation during recent 15 years. In the future 50 years the alpine cold meadow ecosystems in different geomorphologic units may have different responses to the changes of the permafrost under different climate warming conditions, among them the alpine cold meadow and swamp ecosystem located in the low mountain and plateau area will have a relatively

关键词： permafrost environment, alpine cold ecosystem, statistics relationship, climate change, impacts, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Land Use of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and the Effect on Its Landscape Pattern in the Recent 50 Years

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural sciences 2006年第4期11卷 910-914页

作者： HUANG Zhiqin 1,2.3., ZHOU Wancun 1 ,ZHOU Jieming 4 , ZHU Mingcang 3.5 1. Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment, chinese academy of sciences ,{2., sichuan, china 2. Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3. sichuan Institute of Land Resource Management,{2., sichuan , china 4. Department of Resources and Environment Science, sichuan Normal University , {12. 610061, sichuan, china 5. College of Information Engineering, {12. University of Technology, {12. 610059, sichuan, china Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu Sichuan China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing China sichuan Institute of Land Resource Management Chengdu Sichuan China Department of Resources and Environment Science Sichuan Normal University Chengdu Sichuan China College of Information Engineering Chengdu University of Technology Chengdu Sichuan China

The paper makes detailed analysis on the changing processes of the main types of land use in Three Gorges Reservoir Area through the techniques of RS （Remote Sense） and GIS （Geography Information System）. Based on the theory of landscape ecology, many types of landscape pattern indexes are calculated and made correlation analysis. The results indicate that： in 1995 the ecological environment of Three Gorges Reservoir Area was the most vulnerable in the recent 50 years, but resumed in 2.02. the landscape pattern diversity index, fractal dimension index and fragmentation index has close correlation with the area of land use/cover change （LUCC）. The research also releases that the increase of the cultivated land, grassland and construction land deteriorates the landscape ecological pattern, while the increase of forest land area will help restore the landscape ecological pattern to its original state. The rapid change of grassland is an important index of the change of landscape pattern, because it has the most effect on change of landscape pattern index.

关键词： the Three Gorges Reservoir Area land use/cover change landscape pattern.

Impact of land-use change on hydrological processes in the Maying River basin, china

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第10期49卷 1098-1110页

作者： WANG Genxu1,3. ZHANG Yu2. LIU Guimin2.& CHEN Lin3.1. Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment,{3.,{2., china 2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,{3., Lanzhou 73.000, china 3. Resource and Environment School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 1. Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China 3. Resource and Environment School Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China

Since the 1960s, dramatic changes have taken place in land-use patterns characterized by the persistent expansion of cultivated land and a continuous decrease in natural woodland and grassland in the arid inland river basins of china. It is very important to assess the effects of such land-use changes on the hydrological processes so vital for water resource management and sustainable development on the catchment scale. The Maying River catchment, a typical arid inland watershed located in the middle of the Hexi Corridor in northwest china, was the site chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land-use changes. The annual runoff, base flow, maximum peak flow, and typical seasonal runoff in both spring and autumn flood periods were selected as the variables in the hydrological processes. Statistical-trend analysis and curvilinear regression were utilized to detect the trends in hydrological variables while eliminating the climatic influence. The relationship between cultivated land-use and hydrological variables was analyzed based on four periods of land-use variation data collected since 1965. A runoff model was established composed of two factors, i.e., cultivated land use and precipitation. The impact of land use changes, especially in the large ar- eas of upstream woodland and grassland turned into cultivated lands since 1967, has resulted in a mean annual runoff decrease of 2..12., a base flow decline of 3..3.2}, a drop in the maximum peak discharge of 3..77%, and mean discharge decreases in spring and autumn of 3..05% and 2..87% respectively, of which the contribution of cultivated land expansion to the influence of annual runoff amounts to 77%-80%, with the contribution to the influence of spring discharge being 73.-81%, and that to the influence of base flow reaching 62.-65%. Thus, a rational regulation policy of land use patterns is vitally important to the sustainable use of water resources and the proper development of the entire catchment.

关键词： land-use change, arid inland river catchment, hydrological process, impact, Maying River.

Prediction of Debris-flow Danger Area by Combining Hydrological and Inundation Simulation Methods

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Journal of mountain Science 2011年第1期8卷 1-9页

作者： CUI Peng Key Laboratory of mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China Graduate School of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2.o8. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruction. The existing methods of inundation simulation are based on historical disasters and have no power of prediction. The rain- flood method can not yield detailed flow hydrograph and does not meet the need of inundation simulation. In this paper, the process of water flow was studied by using the Arc-SCS model combined with hydraulic method, and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula combining the result from Arc-SCS. The peak discharge and runoff duration served as input of inundation simulation. Then, the dangerous area is predicted using kinematic wave method and Manning equation. Taking the debris flow in Huashiban gully in Beichuan County, sichuan Province, china on 2. Sep. 2.o8 as example, the peak discharge of water flow and debris flow were calculated as 3..52.m3.s-1 and 2.5.66 m3.s-, with error of 4.15% compared to the measured values. The simulated area of debris-flow deposition was 161,500 m2. vs. the measured area of 144,097 m2. in error of 81.75%. The simulated maximum depth was 12.3.m, consistent with the real maximum depth between lO and 15 m according to the field survey. The minor error is mainly due to the flow impact on buildings and variations in cross-section configuration. The present methodology can be applied to predict debrisflow magnitude and evaluate its risk in other watersheds inthe earthquake area.

关键词： Debris flow Arc-SCS model Inundation simulation Risk analysis Wenchuan earthquake

GIS-based Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard Zoning Using Contributing Weight Model

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Journal of mountain Science 2010年第4期7卷 339-352页

作者： WANG Meng Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment ChineseAcademy of Science Chengdu 610041 China Graduate University of chineseacademy of {2. Belling 100049 China Key Laboratory of Geo-surface Process and mountain Hazards Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Science Chengdu 610041 China

Earthquake-triggered landslides have aroused widespread attention because of their tremendous ability to harm people's lives and *** best way to avoid and mitigate their damage is to develop landslide hazard maps and make them available to the public in advance of an *** construction can then be built according to the level of hazard and existing structures can be retrofit as *** recent years various approaches have been made to develop landslide hazard maps using statistical analysis or physical ***,these methods have *** study introduces a new GIS-based approach,using the contributing weight model,to evaluate the hazard of seismically-induced *** this study,the city and surrounding area of Dujiangyan was selected as the research area because of its moderate-high seismic *** parameters incorporated into the model that related to the probability of landslide occurrence were:slope gradient,slope aspect,geomorphology,lithology,base level,surface roughness,earthquake intensity,fault proximity,drainage proximity,and road *** parameters were converted into raster data format with a resolution of 2.×2.m2.*** of the GIS correlations shows that the highest earthquake-induced landslide hazard areas are mainly in the hills and in some of the moderately steep {3.ous areas of central *** highest hazard zone covers an area of 11.1% of the study area,and the density distribution of seismically-induced landslides was 3.02./km2.from the 2.08 Wenchuan *** moderately hazardous areas are mainly distributed within the moderately steep {3.ous regions of the northern and southeastern parts of the study area and the hills of the northeastern part;covering 3.0}0% of the study area and with a density distribution of 2.12./km2.resulting from the Wenchuan *** lowest hazard areas are mainly distributed in the topographically flat plain in the northeas

关键词： Earthquake-triggered landslide GIS Contributing weight model Hazard zoning

Ecological Footprint and Ecological Security Evaluation in the Upper Min River Basin

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural sciences 2005年第4期10卷 641-646页

作者： TU Jian-jun 1, 2.1. School of Resources and Environment Science, Southwest china Normal University, Chongqing 400715, china 2. Institute of {2. Hazards and Environment, chinese academy of sciences, chengdu 610041, sichuan, china Southwest china Normal University School of Resources and Environment Science Chongqing China (GRID:grid.263906.8) chinese academy of {2. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chengdu Sichuan China (GRID:grid.9227.e) (ISNI:***)

On the basis of the ecological footprint (EF) model, this paper studied theecological security in the Upper Min River Basin ecosystem. The result shows that with 2. 03. 2.hm^2.er capita ecological capacity (0. 42. 2.hm^2.higher than per capita EF) ,and 165 82. hm^2.ecologysurplus , the ecosystem in Upper Min River is generally secure at present. But the arable land isoverweighed and omens an eco-security crisis. Meanwhile, problems such as low forest coverage rate,severe loss of water and soil,enlargement of arid-valley area, frequent occurrence of mountainhazards and degradation of pastures have been major threats to the eco-security of this region. Thecalculation result of ten-thousand-yuan ( RMB) GDP shows that the use of natural resources isextensive, and there will be a rapid increase tendency of EF in the future. In order to maintain thepresent eco-security, the ways of use natural resources must be improved in the Upper Min RiverBasin.

关键词： ecological security ecological footprint ecological capacity quantitativeevaluation the Upper Min River Basin