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Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death,and disability-adjusted life years

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2024年第4期27卷 242-248页

作者： Mozhgan Seif sedigheh edalat Ali Majidpour Azad Shirazi Somayeh Alipouri Mohsen Bayati Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Department of EpidemiologySchool of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran Health Human Resources Research Center School of Health Management and Information SciencesShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran Health Policy Research Center Institute of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran

Purpose:Road traffic accidents pose a global challenge with substantial human and economic *** a high incidence of road traffic injuries,leading to a significant burden on *** studyaims to predict the future burden of road traffic injuries in Iran until 2030,providing valuable insights forpolicy-making and interventions to improve road safety and reduce the associated human and ***:This analytical study utilized time series models,specifically autoregressive integrated movingaverage(ARIMA)and artificial neural networks(ANNs),to predict the burden of road traffic accidents byanalyzing past data to identify patterns and trends in Iran until *** required data related toprevalence,death,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rates were collected from the Institute forHealth Metrics and Evaluation database and analyzed using R software and relevant modeling andstatistical analysis ***:Both prediction models,ARIMA and ANNs indicate that the prevalence rates(per 100,000)of allroad traffic injuries,except for motorcyclist road injuries which have an almost flat trend,remaining ataround 430,increase by *** on estimations of both models,the rates of death and DALYs due tomotor vehicle and pedestrian road traffic injuries *** motor vehicle road injuries,estimatedtrends decrease to approximately 520 DALYs and 10 ***,for pedestrian road injuries these ratesreached approximately 300 DALYs and 6 deaths,according to the *** cyclists and other roadtraffic injuries,the predicted DALY rates by the ANN model increase to almost 50 and 8,while predictionsconducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend,remaining at 40 and approximately ***,these rates for the prediction of death rate by the ANN model increased to 0.6 and 0.1,while predictionsconducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend,remaining at 0.43 and *** to the ANNmodel,the predicted rates of DALY and death for m

关键词： Accidents Traffic Accident prevention Motorcycles Road injury Forecasting

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