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Modelling the potential risk zone of Lantana camara invasion and response to climate change in eastern India

Ecological Processes 2022年第1期11卷 142-154页

作者： Sharad Tiwari S.N.Mishra Dharmendra Kumar Basant Kumar S.N.Vaidya Brojo Gopal Ghosh Sk Mujibar Rahaman Masjuda Khatun sanjoy garai Amit Kumar Institute of Forest Productivity LalgutwaRanchi 835303JharkhandIndia Department of IT Govt.of JharkhandJharkhand Space Application CentreRanchiIndia Department of Geoinformatics Central University of JharkhandRanchi 835205JharkhandIndia

Background:The aim of this study is to elucidate the potential risk zones prone to the invasion of perennial ornamental plant Lantana camara,which is native to South America and has invasive tendency in Jharkhand,eastern India,for present(2020)and the future(2050)climatic conditions under four different Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios(RCPs).We analysed the current distribution pattern of *** in the plateau region of eastern India and identified potentially suitable habitats prone to its further infestation in the future under the climate change ***:Results showed the presence of *** invasion in~13%of the geographical area of Jharkhand,Cho-tanagpur plateau which may expand up to 20–26%by 2050 depending upon emission scenarios as characterised by the four *** for the current scenario suggests the dominance of *** in sub-zone V(12.77%under high risk zones(HRZ)and 9.5%under critical risk zones(CRZ))followed by sub-zones IV(6.7%:HRZ;4.19%:CRZ)and VI(2.49%:HRZ;2.14%:CRZ).Future projection(2050)indicates a possible expansion of its distribution range across all agro-climatic sub-zones with dominance in sub-zones V and *** Bio_4(temperature seasonality)was observed as the most contributing factor for the distribution of *** for current and future scenarios across all *** habitat for *** mostly occurred under natural vegetation(66.05%of CRZ and 60.71%of HRZ)and agriculture landscape(29.51%of CRZ and 34.48%of HRZ).Conclusions:The study provides an insight of invasion of *** in the plateau region of eastern India,and reveals wide distribution across all the agro-climatic sub-zones of Jharkhand,mostly in open and disturbed areas under natural vegetation and agriculture *** projections for the year 2050 suggest a continuous increase in the expansion range of invasion across Jharkhand and call for urgent initiatives to combat its further invasion.

关键词： Climate change Forest Invasion Lantana camara Maxent RCPs

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