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Asymmetrical response of summer rainfall in East Asia to CO_(2)forcing

Science Bulletin 2022年第2期67卷 213-222,M0004页

作者： Se-Yong Song sang-wook yeh Soon-Il An Jong-Seong Kug Seung-Ki Min Seok-Woo Son Jongsoo Shin Department of Marine Sciences and Convergence Technology Hanyang UniversityAnsan 15588South Korea Department of Atmospheric Sciences/Irreversible Climate Change Research Center Yonsei UniversitySeoul 03722South Korea Division of Environmental Science and Engineering Pohang University of Science and TechnologyPohang 37673South Korea Institute for Convergence Research and Education in Advanced Technology Yonsei UniversityIncheon 21983South Korea School of Earth and Environmental Science Seoul National UniversitySeoul 08826South Korea

Understanding the regional hydrological response to varying CO_(2)concentration is critical for cost-benefit analysis of mitigation and adaptation polices in the near future. To characterize summer monsoon rainfall change in East Asia in a changing CO_(2)pathway, we used the Community Earth System Model(CESM) with28 ensemble members in which the CO_(2)concentration increases at a rate of 1% per year until its quadrupling peak, i.e., 1468 ppm(ramp-up period), followed by a decrease of 1% per year until the present-day climate conditions, i.e., 367 ppm(ramp-down period). Although the CO_(2)concentration change is symmetric in time, the amount of summer rainfall anomaly in East Asia is increased 42% during a rampdown period than that during a ramp-up period when the two periods of the same CO_(2)concentration are compared. This asymmetrical rainfall response is mainly due to an enhanced El Ni?o-like warming pattern as well as its associated increase in the sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific during a ramp-down period. These sea surface temperature patterns enhance the atmospheric teleconnections and the local meridional circulations around East Asia, resulting in more rainfall over East Asia during a ramp-down period. This result implies that the removal of CO_(2)does not guarantee the return of regional rainfall to the previous climate state with the same CO_(2)concentration.

关键词： CO_(2)concentration East Asian summer monsoon Asymmetric rainfall El Ni?o-like warming

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