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Analysis of Rainfall Variables Trends and Potential Vegetation Responses in Sinaloa, México

American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第3期3卷 338-352页

作者： César Enrique Romero Higareda Luz Isela Peinado Guevara samuel campista león Jorge Guillermo Sánchez Zazueta Juana Cázares Martínez Escuela de Biología Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa Culiacán México

Based on monthly data from 55 meteorological stations from the north Pacific Watershed, seven annual rainfall trends were estimated and analyzed using non-parametric tests. The estimated slopes were analyzed in a geographic context to determine a potential spatial arrangement. Finally a brief analysis of the potential vegetation response from the different physiographic regions and the implications in the productive analysis is discussed. The findings indicated divergent trends in all the proposed variables, in general increasing and drier trends were found. Latitude was the most relevant factor regarding trend behavior in geographic terms. The lack of awareness and apathy from the authorities in the region were found, plus the regional vulnerability may originate notorious and serious consequences if the proper measures are not taken into account.

关键词： Climate Change Rainfall Trends Vegetation Responses

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Temperature Trend Analysis in the north Pacific Watershed in Mexico

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American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第3期3卷 306-325页

作者： César Enrique Romero-Higareda Luz Isela Peinado-Guevara samuel campista-león Juana Cázarez-Martínez Jorge Guillermo Sánchez-Zazueta Rogelio Sánchez-Banuelos Unidad Académica Escuela de Biología Universidad Autónoma de SinaloaCuliacánMéxico

Through the monthly data of 71 meteorological stations of the north Pacific Watershed in northwest Mexico, the annual trends of nine temperature variables were estimated using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Q Sen’s slope estimator. Annual Q Sen’s slopes were analyzed in spatial terms using geographic variables as independent factors and likewise with Moran’s I index. Three major physiographic zones were used to perform a regional analysis using pooled data. The monthly trends were also analyzed. Divergent annual trends were found for the nine proposed variables and warming trends were predominant in almost all of them. Latitude is the most relevant factor in the spatial distribution of the Q Sen’s slopes. Four temperature variables were found statistically clustered, as depicted by the Moran’s I index. The largest regional Q Sen’s slopes values were found in the Coastal Plains. In this area a larger increase in minimum temperatures was observed, in contrast with the Sierra Madre regions, where the largest rate of increasing change was found in maximum temperatures. The monthly analysis indicates warming trends in the first six months of the year with a sudden decrease in July and also a noticeable decrease in the slope values in December.

关键词： Climate Change northwest Mexico Regional Analysis

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