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Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)in Africa

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2020年第4期9卷 60-65页

作者： salihu s.musa shi Zhao Maggie H.Wang Abdurrazaq G.Habib Umar T.Mustapha Daihai He Department of Applied Mathematics Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong KongChina Department of Mathematics Kano University of Science and TechnologyWudilNigeria JC school of Public Health and Primary Care Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong ShenzhenChina Collage of Health sciences Bayero UnuversityKanoNigeria Department of Mathematics Federal University DutseDutseNigeria

Background:since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Africa was detected on February 14,2020,the cumulative confirmations reached 15207 including 831 deaths by April 13,2020.Africa has been described as one of the most vulnerable region with the COVID-19 infection during the initial phase of the outbreak,due to the fact that Africa is a great commercial partner of China and some other EU and American countries.Which result in large volume of travels by traders to the region more frequently and causing African countries face even bigger health threat during the COVID-19 pandemic.Furthermore,the fact that the control and management of COVID-19 pandemic rely heavily on a country's health care system,and on average Africa has poor health care system which make it more vulnerable indicating a need for timely intervention to curtail the spread.In this paper,we estimate the exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number(R0)of COVID-19 in Africa to show the potential of the virus to spread,and reveal the importance of sustaining stringent health measures to control the disease in Africa.Methods:We analyzed the initial phase of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Africa between 1 March and 13 April 2020,by using the simple exponential growth model.We examined the publicly available materials published by the WHO situation report to show the potential of COVID-19 to spread without sustaining strict health measures.The Poisson likelihood framework is adopted for data fitting and parameter estimation.We modelled the distribution of COVID-19 generation interval(GI)as Gamma distributions with a mean of 4.7 days and standard deviation of 2.9 days estimated from previous work,and compute the basic reproduction number.Results:We estimated the exponential growth rate as 0.22 per day(95%CI:0.20-0.24),and the basic reproduction number,R0,as 2.37(95%CI:2.22-2.51)based on the assumption that the exponential growth starting from 1 March 2020.With an R0 at 2.37,we quantified the instantaneous transmissibility of the ou

关键词： COVID-19 Reproduction number Pandemic statistical modelling

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Mathematical modeling and analysis of schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

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International Journal of Modeling, simulation, and scientific Computing 2021年第4期12卷 58-76页

作者： Umar T.Mustapha salihu s.musa Muhammad A.Lawan Aliyu Abba Evren Hincal musa D.Mohammed Bashir D.Garba Rabiu B.Yunus shehu A.Adamu Daihai He Department of Mathematics Near East University TRNC Mersin 10 Turkey Department of Mathematics Federal University Dutse Nigeria Department of Applied Mathematics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong Department of Mathematics Kano University of science and Technology Wudil Nigeria Department of statistics Jigawa state Polytechnic DutseNigeria Department of Computer Engineering Institute of Continuing Education Kano University of science and Technology Wudil Nigeria Department of Mathematics and statistics Kano state Polytechnic Nigeria

schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease from the family of schistosomatidae and genus schistosoma,which is caused by blood flukes.The disease is endemic in many countries and still a serious threat to global public health and development.In this paper,a new deterministic model is designed and analyzed qualitatively to explore the dynamics of schistosomiasis transmission in human,cattle and snail populations.Results from our mathematical analysis show that the model has a disease-free equilibrium(DFE)which is locally asymptotically stable(LAs)whenever a particular epidemiological threshold quantity,also known as basic reproduction number(R0)is less than unity.Further analysis shows that the model has a unique endemic equilibrium(EE)which is globally asymptotically stable whenever R0>1 and unstable when R0sensitivity analysis to reveal the most important parameters for effective control and mitigation of schistosomiasis disease in a community.Finally,we obtain some numerical results by simulating the entire dynamics of the model,which show that the infections in the compartments of each population decrease with respect to time.This further indicates that avoiding contact with infected human,cattle or infested water is vital to prevent the spread of schistosomiasis disease infection.

关键词： schistosomiasis disease basic reproduction number stability analysis sensitivity analysis

Peat properties of a tropical forest reserve adjacent to a fire-break canal

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第1期35卷 155-167页

作者： Dayang Nur sakinah musa Mohd Zahirasri Mohd Tohir Xinyan Huang Luqman Chuah Abdullah Mohamad syazaruddin Md said Muhammad Firdaus sulaiman safety Engineering Interest Group(sEIG) Department of Chemical and Environmental EngineeringFaculty of EngineeringUniversiti Putra Malaysia43400 UPM SerdangSelangorMalaysia International Tropical Forestry Programme Faculty of Tropical ForestryUniversiti Malaysia SabahSabahMalaysia Department of Land Management Faculty of AgricultureUniversiti Putra MalaysiaSelangorMalaysia Research Centre for Fire safety Engineering Department of Building Environment and Energy EngineeringThe Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong KongPeople’s Republic of China

Tropical peat comprises decomposed dead plant material and acts like a sponge to absorb water,making it fully saturated.However,drought periods dry it readily and increases its vulnerability to fire.Peat fires emit greenhouse gases and particles contributing to haze,and prevention by constructing fire-break canals to reduce fire spread into forest reserves is crucial.This paper aims to determine peat physical and chemical properties near a fire-break canal at different fire frequency areas.Peat sampling was conducted at two forest reserves in Malaysia which represent low fire frequency and high fire frequency areas.The results show that peat properties were not affected by the construction of a fire-break canal,however lignin and cellulose content increased significantly from the distance of the canal in both areas.The study concluded that fire frequency did not significantly influence peat properties except for porosity.The higher fibre content in the high frequency area did not influence moisture content nor the ability to regain moisture.Thus,fire frequency might contribute differently to changes in physical and chemical properties,hence management efforts to construct fire-break canals and restoration efforts should protect peatlands from further degradation.These findings will benefit future management and planning for forest reserves.

关键词： Peat fire Peat properties Fire-break canals Forest reserves

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An Enhanced Hybrid Model Based on CNN and BiLsTM for Identifying Individuals via Handwriting Analysis

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & sciences 2024年第8期140卷 1689-1710页

作者： Md.Abdur Rahim Fahmid Al Farid Abu saleh musa Miah Arpa Kar Puza Md.Nur Alam Md.Najmul Hossain sarina Mansor Hezerul Abdul Karim Department of Computer science and Engineering Pabna University of Science and TechnologyPabna6600Bangladesh Faculty of Engineering Multimedia UniversityCyberjaya63100Malaysia Department of Computer science and Engineering Bangladesh Army University of Science and TechnologySaidpur5311Bangladesh Department of Mathematics Pabna University of Science and TechnologyPabna6600Bangladesh Department of Electrical Electronic and Communication EngineeringPabnaUniversity of Science and TechnologyPabna6600Bangladesh Department of Electrical and Communication Engineering Pabna University of Science and TechnologyPabna6600Bangladesh

Handwriting is a unique and significant human feature that distinguishes them from one another.There are many researchers have endeavored to develop writing recognition systems utilizing specific signatures or symbols for person identification through verification.However,such systems are susceptible to forgery,posing security risks.In response to these challenges,we propose an innovative hybrid technique for individual identification based on independent handwriting,eliminating the reliance on specific signatures or symbols.In response to these challenges,we propose an innovative hybrid technique for individual identification based on independent handwriting,eliminating the reliance on specific signatures or symbols.Our innovative method is intricately designed,encompassing five distinct phases:data collection,preprocessing,feature extraction,significant feature selection,and classification.One key advancement lies in the creation of a novel dataset specifically tailored for Bengali handwriting(BHW),setting the foundation for our comprehensive approach.Post-preprocessing,we embarked on an exhaustive feature extraction process,encompassing integration with kinematic,statistical,spatial,and composite features.This meticulous amalgamation resulted in a robust set of 91 features.To enhance the efficiency of our system,we employed an analysis of variance(ANOVA)F test and mutual information scores approach,meticulously selecting the most pertinent features.In the identification phase,we harnessed the power of cutting-edge deep learning models,notably the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and Bidirectional Long short-Term Memory(BiLsTM).These models underwent rigorous training and testing to accurately discern individuals based on their handwriting characteristics.Moreover,our methodology introduces a groundbreaking hybrid model that synergizes CNN and BiLsTM,capitalizing on fine motor features for enhanced individual classifications.Crucially,our experimental results underscore the superiority of our approach.The CNN,B

关键词： Bengali handwriting(BHW) person identification convolutional neural network(CNN) BiLsTM

Infection fatality rate and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in south American countries

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2022年第2期11卷 42-52页

作者： salihu sabiu musa Amna Tariq Liu Yuan Wei Haozhen Daihai He Department of Applied Mathematics Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong KongChina Department of Mathematics Kano University of Science and TechnologyWudilNigeria Department of Population Health sciences School of Public HealthGeorgia State UniversityAtlantaGAUSA

Background:The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic hit south America badly with multiple waves.Different COVID-19 variants have been storming across the region,leading to more severe infections and deaths even in places with high vaccination coverage.This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal variability of the COVID-19 pandemic and estimate the infection fatality rate(IFR),infection attack rate(IAR)and reproduction number(R0)for twelve most affected south American countries.Methods:We fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered(sEIR)-based model with a time-varying transmission rate to the reported COVID-19 deaths for the twelve south American countries with the highest mortalities.Most of the epidemiological datasets analysed in this work are retrieved from the disease surveillance systems by the World Health Organization,Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and Our World in Data.We investigate the COVID-19 mortalities in these countries,which could represent the situation for the overall south American region.We employ COVID-19 dynamic model with-and-without vaccination considering time-varying flexible transmission rate to estimate IFR,IAR and R0 of COVID-19 for the south American countries.Results:We simulate the model in each scenario under suitable parameter settings and yield biologically reasonable estimates for IFR(varies between 0.303% and 0.723%),IAR(varies between 0.03 and 0.784)and R0(varies between 0.7 and 2.5)for the 12 south American countries.We observe that the severity,dynamical patterns of deaths and time-varying transmission rates among the countries are highly heterogeneous.Further analysis of the model with the effect of vaccination highlights that increasing the vaccination rate could help suppress the pandemic in south America.Conclusions:This study reveals possible reasons for the two waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in south America.We observed reductions in the transmission rate corresponding to each wave plausibly due to improvement in nonpharmaceutical interventions measures and human pr

关键词： COVID-19 Epidemic model Infection fatality rate Infection attack rate Pandemic Reproduction number

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Herpes simplex keratitis:A brief clinical overview

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World Journal of Virology 2024年第1期13卷 5-32页

作者： Mutali musa Ehimare Enaholo Gladness Aluyi-Osa George Nnamdi Atuanya Leopoldo spadea Carlo salati Marco Zeppieri Department of Optometry University of BeninBenin 300283Nigeria Department of Ophthalmology Africa Eye Laser CentreKm 7Benin 300105Nigeria Department of Ophthalmology Centre for Sight AfricaNkpor 434101Nigeria Eye Clinic Policlinico Umberto I"Sapienza"University of RomeRome 00142Italy of Ophthalmology University Hospital of UdineUdine 33100Italy

The aim of our minireview is to provide a brief overview of the diagnosis,clinical aspects,treatment options,management,and current literature available regarding herpes simplex keratitis(HsK).This type of corneal viral infection is caused by the herpes simplex virus(HsV),which can affect several tissues,including the cornea.One significant aspect of HsK is its potential to cause recurrent episodes of inflammation and damage to the cornea.After the initial infection,the HsV can establish a latent infection in the trigeminal ganglion,a nerve cluster near the eye.The virus may remain dormant for extended periods.Periodic reactivation of the virus can occur,leading to recurrent episodes of HsK.Factors triggering reactivation include stress,illness,immunosuppression,or trauma.Recurrent episodes can manifest in different clinical patterns,ranging from mild epithelial involvement to more severe stromal or endothelial disease.The severity and frequency of recurrences vary among individuals.severe cases of HsK,especially those involving the stroma and leading to scarring,can result in vision impairment or even blindness in extreme cases.The cornea's clarity is crucial for good vision,and scarring can compromise this,potentially leading to visual impairment.The management of HsK involves not only treating acute episodes but also implementing long-term strategies to prevent recurrences and attempt repairs of corneal nerve endings via neurotization.Antiviral medications,such as oral Acyclovir or topical Ganciclovir,may be prescribed for prophylaxis.The immune response to the virus can contribute to corneal damage.Inflammation,caused by the body's attempt to control the infection,may inadvertently harm the corneal tissues.Clinicians should be informed about triggers and advised on measures to minimize the risk of reactivation.In summary,the recurrent nature of HsK underscores the importance of both acute and long-term management strategies to preserve corneal health and maintain optimal visual function.

关键词： Herpes simplex virus Herpes simplex keratitis Acyclovir Neurotization Reactivation

Effect of Tillage Practices on Hydro-Physical Properties of soils in a Rice-Grown Environment in North Central Nigeria

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2024年第5期15卷 527-536页

作者： Ebierni Akpoebidimiyen Otuaro John Jiya musa Felix Oguche Abayomi Ibrahim Kuti Abubakar Ndaman Civil Engineering Department Maritime University Okerenkoko Nigeria Department of Agricultural and Bioresources Engineering Federal University of Technology Minna Nigeria Institute of Water and Environmental Management Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management University of Debrecen Boszormenyi St Hungary

This study details soil’s physical and chemical properties in a rice-grown environment in Minna environs Niger state, Nigeria, under different soil and water conservation practices. soil samples were collected at 0 - 10 cm, 10 - 20 cm and 20 - 30 cm, respectively, using a soil auger to determine their physical and chemical properties such as moisture content, particle size, bulk density, particle density, porosity and organic matter. The textural classification determined the percentage dominance of the soil types in each study site location. The moisture content of site 1 ranged between 14.3% to 13.7%, site 2 ranged between 13.2% to 10.2%, site 3 ranged between 15.4% to 13.2%, site 4 ranged between 15.6% to 13.6% and site 5 ranged between 16.1% to 10.9%. The clay content of sites 3, 4 and 5 is higher than that of sites 1 and 2, while the silt contents of sites 1, 2 and 3 are higher than that of sites 4 and 5. The mean value of soil organic carbon from each study location was 2.37%, 2.03%, 2.43%, 2.07% and 2.17% for sites 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Therefore, site 1 is susceptible to erosion because of poor infiltration rate and well-ploughed or cultivated land by the tractor (harrowed). The particle sizes analysis indicated that the soil type in site 1 and site 2 is mainly sandy loam, while site 3 and site 5 are mainly loamy and predominantly clay loam in site 4.

关键词： Degradation Erosion Fertility Irrigation Management

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满天星茎腐病中一种新病原菌的分离与鉴定

热带作物学报 2024年第5期45卷 992-999页

作者：周云莹 sauban musa Jibril 王玲朱玺燊王一张力敏李成云云南农业大学植物保护学院云南昆明650201 云南生物资源保护与利用国家重点实验室云南昆明650201 云南农业大学云南-国际应用生物科学中心跨境有害生物综合防控联合实验室云南昆明650201

满天星是当今世界最流行的鲜切花配花之一,茎腐病是满天星的一种常见病害,严重时导致植株枯萎死亡,影响鲜花的观赏性和利用价值,造成一定的经济损失。2021年3月,笔者在云南省昆明市海口镇发现满天星茎腐病,该病主要为害茎基部,表现为茎... 详细信息

满天星是当今世界最流行的鲜切花配花之一,茎腐病是满天星的一种常见病害,严重时导致植株枯萎死亡,影响鲜花的观赏性和利用价值,造成一定的经济损失。2021年3月,笔者在云南省昆明市海口镇发现满天星茎腐病,该病主要为害茎基部,表现为茎基部腐烂和萎蔫。为明确其病原,本研究对满天星茎腐病病原菌进行分离与鉴定。柯赫氏法则证明该分离物可造成满天星组培苗和盆栽苗表现出与田间病株相似的症状,经接种后获得的分离物与田间自然发病的分离物一致。通过形态学鉴定,分离物能产生大量致密的气生菌丝,颜色从白色到淡橙色或黄色不等,菌落背面有暗红色色素沉积。显微镜观察发现其分离物的分生孢子呈镰刀形,腹面较平直,背侧呈拱形,具有3~6个隔膜,分生孢子大小为(21.1~57.9)μm×(2.7~5.1)μm(n=100),未见小型分生孢子,形态学上与镰刀菌属病原真菌相似。通过对其ITs基因序列与形态学鉴定,将分离物初步确定为禾谷镰孢复合种(Fusarium graminearum species complex,FGsC),为进一步确定亚种,使用翻译延伸因子(TEF-1α)序列进行测序,发现该分离物与南方镰孢菌(F.meridionale)的同源性达100%。因此结合形态学和分子生物学特征,满天星茎腐病的病原确定为南方镰孢菌。目前国内尚未发现由南方镰孢菌侵染为害满天星茎部的相关研究报道,本研究结果将为防治满天星病害提供重要理论依据。

关键词：满天星茎基腐南方镰孢菌

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蒲公英与木通提取物对断奶仔兔生长性能、肠道健康和药物转运体基因相对表达量的影响

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畜牧兽医学报 2024年

作者：陈雨修子清 MGENI musa 施屹张俊秋蒋小雨吕景智孙雅望西南大学动物科学技术学院西南大学动物医学院

旨在研究饲粮中添加蒲公英、木通提取物对断奶仔兔生长性能、肠道形态结构、肠黏膜紧密连接蛋白和肝肠药物转运体蛋白基因表达的影响，探究二者联用对提高中药提取物生物利用度的效果。试验选取120只35日龄断奶仔兔，随机分为4个组，每... 详细信息

旨在研究饲粮中添加蒲公英、木通提取物对断奶仔兔生长性能、肠道形态结构、肠黏膜紧密连接蛋白和肝肠药物转运体蛋白基因表达的影响，探究二者联用对提高中药提取物生物利用度的效果。试验选取120只35日龄断奶仔兔，随机分为4个组，每组设置10个重复，每个重复3只兔。试验包括对照组（基础饲粮）、蒲公英组（基础饲粮添加0.5%蒲公英提取物）、木通组（基础饲粮添加0.5%木通提取物）和蒲公英+木通组（基础饲粮分别添加0.5%蒲公英和木通提取物）。试验时间为28 d。试验结果表明：1）第1周蒲公英组和木通组平均日增重显著高于对照组（Psporting polypeptide 2B1，OATP2B1）基因的相对表达量显著低于对照组（Psistance-associated protein 3，MRP3）基因在回肠的相对表达量显著低于对照组（P<0.05）；蒲公英+木通组乳腺癌耐药相关蛋白、MRP3基因在肝的相对表达量显著低于对照组（P<0.05），木通组和蒲公英+木通组OATP2B1基因在肝的相对表达量显著低于对照组（P<0.05）。综上所述，饲粮中分别添加蒲公英和木通提取物对断奶仔兔的生长性能有所改善，同时添加蒲公英和木通提取物能提高空肠组织总黄酮含量，饲粮中添加蒲公英和木通提取物能调节肝和肠黏膜组织中药物转运体基因表达水平。

关键词：蒲公英木通断奶仔兔生长性能肠道健康总黄酮药物转运体