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Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study

Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第2期14卷 83-93页

作者： Vahid Rahmanian saied bokaie Aliakbar Haghdoost Mohsen Barouni Department of Food Hygiene and Quality Control Division of Epidemiology&ZoonosesFaculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranTehranIran HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Health Services Management Research Center Institute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran

Objective:To determine the potential effect of environment variables on cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence using time-series models and compare the predictive ability of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)models and Markov switching model(MSM).Methods:This descriptive study employed yearly and monthly data of 49364 parasitologically-confirmed cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan province,located in the center of Iran from January 2000 to December *** data were provided by the leishmaniasis national surveillance system,the meteorological organization of Isfahan province,and Iranian Space Agency for vegetation *** SARIMA and MSM models were implemented to examine the environmental factors of cutaneous leishmaniasis ***:The minimum relative humidity,maximum relative humidity,minimum wind speed,and maximum wind speed were significantly associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in different lags(P<0.05).Comparing SARIMA and MSM,Akaikes information criterion(AIC),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)in MSM were much smaller than SARIMA models(MSM:AIC=0.95,MAPE=3.5%;SARIMA:AIC=158.93,MAPE:11.45%).Conclusions:SARIMA and MSM can be a useful tool for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan *** cutaneous leishmaniasis falls into one of two states of epidemic and non-epidemic,the use of MSM(dynamic)is recommended,which can provide more information compared to models that use a single distribution for all observations(Box-Jenkins SARIMA model).

关键词： Leishmaniasis Climate factor Time series analysis Forecasting Iran

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Spatio-temporal history of H9N2 viruses in Iran and neighbor countries by Bayesian analysis and molecular characterization

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第7期14卷 309-315页

作者： Nima Ghalekhani saied bokaie Sana Eybpoosh Hesameddin Akbarein Divisions of Epidemiology&Zoonoses Department of Food Hygiene and Quality ControlFaculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranIran HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Research Centre for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious DiseasesPasteur Institute of IranTehranIran

Objective: To delineate the H9N2 influenza virus circulation within Iran and its neighboring countries, the potential source of the epidemic in these countries, and its date of ***: We obtained all hemagglutinin(HA) and neuraminidase(NA) nucleotide sequences of influenza H9N2 available up to December 25, 2020 from Iran and its neighboring countries(i.e., Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iraq). We also performed a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method to infer the evolutionary dynamic and the most recent common ancestor for the HA and NA ***: H9N2 epidemic may have started in Iran and Pakistan much earlier than the other investigated countries in the region, and an ongoing bidirectional dispersion of the virus between the investigated countries was also observed. The mean time of the most recent common ancestor of H9N2 viruses was 1988 for HA, and 1992 for ***: Strains from investigated countries rooted in Pakistan and Iran. Regular surveillance of H9N2 viruses, especially in the live bird markets, enhancing the biosecurity of poultry industry and screening newly arriving immigrants and tourists from neighboring countries at border should be considered to control spread of the virus. Furthermore, surveillance of viral molecular evolution should be initiated for effective prevention of epidemic and pandemic spreads.

关键词： Influenza virus H9N2 Bayesian phylogeographic Iran

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Analysis of temporal trends of human brucellosis between 2013 and 2018 in Yazd Province, Iran to predict future trends in incidence: A time-series study using ARIMA model

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2020年第6期13卷 272-277页

作者： Vahid Rahmanian saied bokaie Karamatollah Rahmanian Saeed Hosseini Aliakbar Taj Firouzeh Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran Health Policy Research Center Institute of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran Epidemiology and Zoonosis Division Department of Food Hygiene Faculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranTehranIran Health Monitoring Research Center School of MedicineShahid Sadoughi University of Medical SciencesYazdIran Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences YazdIran

Objective:To determine the temporal patterns of cumulative incidence of brucellosis using autoregressive integrated moving average ***:This cross-sectional study employed yearly and monthly data of 1117 laboratory-confirmed human brucellosis cases from January 2013 to December 2018 using the Yazd brucellosis national surveillance *** monthly incidences constructed a timeseries *** trend of cumulative incidence was perceived by tracing a line plot,which displayed a seasonal trend with ***,the ARIMA models were ***,Akaike information criteria(AIC)and Bayesian information criterion(BIC)values among different models indicated a preferable model from models which were expanded by diverse lags[(3,0,3),(2,0,3),(3,0,2),(4,0,3)and(3,0,4)].Then,the achieved ARIMA model was applied to the forecasting cumulative incidence of monthly brucellosis *** analyses were performed using Stata,version ***:For the ARIMA(3,0,4)model,MAPE value was 56.20%with standard error 0.009–0.016,and white noise diagnostic check(Q=19.79,P=0.975)for the residuals of the selected model showed that the data were completely *** monthly incidences that were fitted by the ARIMA(3,0,4)model,with AIC(25.7)and BIC(43.35)with a similar pattern of actual cases from 2013 to 2018 and forecasting incidences from January 2019 to December 2019 were,respectively,0.50,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.45 and 0.49 per 100000 ***:In summary,the study showed that the ARIMA(3,0,4)model can be applied to forecast human brucellosis patterns in Yazd province,supplementing present surveillance systems,and may be better for health policy-makers and planners.

关键词： Malta fever Forecasting Public health surveillance Iran

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Prevalence of cryptosporidiosis in animals in Iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第3期14卷 99-112页

作者： Mohammad Jokar Mohammad Hasan Rabiee saied bokaie Vahid Rahmanian Paria Dehesh Hamideh Hasannejad Kiavash Hushmandi Hadi Keshipour Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Karaj BranchIslamic Azad UniversityKarajIran Divisions of Epidemiology Department of Food Hygiene and Quality ControlFaculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranIran Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran Department of Epidemiology School of Public HealthIran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective:To review the prevalence of cryptosporidiosis among animal population of ***:Data were systematically gathered from 1 January 2000 to 1 January 2020 in the Islamic Republic of Iran from the following electronic databases:Pub Med,Springer,Google Scholar,Science Direct,Scopus,Web of Science,Magiran,and Scientific Information Database(SID).According to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses(PRISMA)and inclusion criteria,88 eligible studies were ***:The pooled prevalence of cryptosporidiosis using random and fixed effects model according to heterogeneity among animals was as follows:rodents 18.8%(95%CI 12.6%-25.0%),camels 17.1%(95%CI 8.6%-25.7%),cattle 16.8%(95%CI 13.4%-20.1%),goats 14.1%(95%CI 5.2%-23.0%),horses 12.2%(95%CI 8.3%-16.2%),birds 10.5%(95%CI 7.6%-13.4%),sheep 9.9%(95%CI 2.4%-4.9%),cats 8.8%(95%CI 4.8%-12.8%)and dogs 3.7%(95%CI 7.0%-12.8%).Conclusions:Cryptosporidiosis has been reported and present in a wide range of animals in Iran over the years and has a high prevalence in most of these species.

关键词： Cryptosporidiosis Animals Prevalence Iran

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Advances in clinical applications of bioceramics in the new regenerative medicine era

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2024年第11期12卷 1863-1869页

作者： Noha Elshazly Fayza Eid Nasr Ayat Hamdy Safa saied Mohamed Elshazly Tissue Engineering Laboratory Faculty of DentistryAlexandria UniversityAlexandria 21526Egypt Department of Biochemistry Faculty of ScienceAlexandria UniversityAlexandria 21526Egypt Public Dental Clinic Central Administration of DentistryMinistry of Health and PopulationAlexandria 21554Egypt Department of Surgery Faculty of Veterinary MedicineAlexandria 21526Egypt

In this editorial,we comment on the hard and soft tissue applications of different ceramic-based scaffolds prepared by different mechanisms such as 3D printing,sol-gel,and *** new concept of regenerative medicine relies on biomaterials that can trigger in situ tissue regeneration and stem cell recruitment at the defect site.A large percentage of these biomaterials is ceramic-based as they provide the essential requirements of biomaterial principles such as tailored multisize porosity,antibacterial properties,and angiogenic *** these previously mentioned properties put bioceramics on top of the hierarchy of biomaterials utilized to stimulate tissue regeneration in soft and hard tissue *** clinical applications registered the use of these materials in triggering soft tissue regeneration in healthy and diabetic patients such as bioactive glass *** results were promising and opened new frontiers for utilizing these materials on a larger *** same results were mentioned when using different forms and formulas of bioceramics in hard defect *** bioceramics were used in combination with other polymers and biological scaffolds to improve their regenerative and mechanical *** this progress will enable a larger scale of patients to receive such services with ease and decrease the financial burden on the government.

关键词： Regenerative medicine Bioceramics Chronic wounds Bone defects Clinical applications

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The combined effects of farm yard manure and boron application on growth,and oil quality of Canola grown under newly reclaimed soils

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Oil Crop Science 2024年第1期9卷 53-59页

作者： Farid Hellal saied El Sayed Amany Abdel Mohsen Ramadan Doaa M.Abobasha Plant Nutrition Department National Research Centre33 El-Behouth St12622DokkiCairoEgypt Botany Department National Research Centre33 El-Behouth St12622DokkiCairoEgypt

Two field experiments were conducted during the main seasons of 2021/2022 at the Research and Production Station of National Research Centre in Egypt to investigate the effects of farmyard manure(FYM)and boron on Canola growth,yield,oil yield,and *** results unequivocally demonstrated that the combined application of FYM at a rate of 14.4 ton ha^(-1)with a foliar spray of boron at 100 ppm positively influenced plant characteristics,leading to enhanced growth rates and higher yields compared to the control ***,this integrated approach significantly improved nutrient content by enhancing levels of oil content,carbohydrates,proteins,phenolics,flavonoids,and total soluble *** findings provide compelling evidence that utilizing farm manure along with boron can effectively enhance Canola properties in newly reclaimed soils while promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

关键词： Oil quality Farmyard manure Phytochemical content Canola Yield production

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Effectiveness of biofertilizers foliar application on yield and quality traits of flax(Linum usitatissimum L.)

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Oil Crop Science 2024年第2期9卷 91-101页

作者： saied El Sayed A.B.Bakry O.A.Nofal M.A.Abo Horish Plant Nutrition Department National Research Centre33 El-Behouth St12622DokkiCairoEgypt Field Crops Department National Research Centre33 El-Behouth St12622DokkiCairoEgypt

Flax is considered to be one of the most significant dual-purpose crops for oil and fiber production in Egypt and *** have a substantial impact on various metabolic processes,including increased photo-synthesis,endogenous hormone levels,ion absorption,nucleic acid synthesis,and protein *** factors collectively contribute to the growth and development of ***,this study aims to investigate how three biofertilizers(Algae extract,CMS as a by-product of yeast,and Metalosate multi minerals as amino acids)can enhance both the quantity and quality of flax seed yield under sandy soil *** field experiments were conducted at the Experimental Station of National Research Centre in Nubaria District,Behira Governorate,Egypt during two seasons(2021/2022)using a randomized complete block design(RCBD).The results revealed significant differences among all tested biofertilizers in terms of various characteristics studied in *** application of algae extract at a rate of 1.50 mL/L resulted in an increase in seed yield(ton/ha)by 26.69%&19.89%,straw yield(ton/ha)by 8.08%&17.12%,and oil yield(kg/ha)by 47.72%&33.69%compared to the control group during both seasons *** applications of algae extract at a rate of 1.50 mL/L along with CMS at a rate of 5 m L/L and amino acids at a rate of 1.50 mL/L demonstrated significantly higher macronutrient contents(N,P,K),micronutrient contents(Fe,Zn,Mn),seed oil content,and protein content in flax seeds during both *** highest values for seed oil content and protein content%were obtained through foliar application of amino acids at a rate of 1.50 mL/*** can be concluded that foliar sprays with these bio-fertilizers effectively improved flax performance by increasing seed straw and oil yields,nutrients oil,protein and fatty acids seeds contents.

关键词： Flax Bio fertilizers Seeds yield Nutrient contents Quality

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Isoimperatorin alleviates acetic acid-induced colitis in rats

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine 2024年第4期14卷 147-153页

作者： saied Goodarzi Amir Hossein Abdolghaffari Behnaz Najafi Mostafa Pirali Hamedani Saeed Tavakoli Mahshad Marvi Maryam Baeeri Narguess Yassa Abbas Hadjiakhoondi Mohammad Abdollahi Zahra Tofighi Medicinal Plants Research Center Faculty of PharmacyTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Toxicology and Pharmacology Faculty of PharmacyTehran Medical SciencesIslamic Azad UniversityTehranIran Department of Pharmacognosy Faculty of PharmacyTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Medicinal Plants Research Center Institute of Medicinal PlantsACECRKarajIran International Campus School of Pharmacy Tehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Toxicology and Diseases group The Pharmaceutical Sciences Research CenterTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Toxicology and Pharmacology Faculty of PharmacyTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective:To investigate the effect of isoimperatorin on histopathological and biochemical changes in acetic acid-induced colitis ***:Colitis was induced by intracolonic administration of acetic acid solution(4%v/v)in *** were divided into six groups including the sham group,the negative control group,the dexamethasone-treated group,and the groups treated with isoimperatorin(0.1,1,and 10 mg/kg/d by gavage).The treatments were administered for three days and then colonic status was assessed by macroscopic,histopathological,and biochemical ***:Isoimperatorin significantly alleviated colonic damage in a dose-dependent manner and improved histological changes in rats with acetic acid-induced *** also significantly reduced myeloperoxidase,TNF-α,IL-1β,and malodialdehyde ***:Isoimperatorin alleviates acetic acid-induced colitis in rats and may be a potential therapeutic agent for the treatment of colitis.

关键词： Isoimperatorin Inflammatory bowel disease Acetic acid Colitis TNF-α IL-1β

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Enhanced recovery after surgery:Progress in adapted pathways for implementation in standard and emerging surgical settings

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2024年第25期12卷 5636-5641页

作者： Mohamed Wishahi Nabawya M Kamal Mohamed saied Hedaya Department of Urology Theodor Bilharz Research InstituteCairo 12411Egypt Department of Anaesthesia and Surgical Intensive Care Theodor Bilharz Research InstituteCairo 12411Egypt Department of Surgery Theodore Bilharz Research InstituteCairo 12411Egypt

The concept of enhanced recovery after surgery(ERAS)has been practiced for decades and has been implemented in numerous surgical *** is a global surgical quality improvement initiative,and it is an element in the field of perioperative *** had shown significant clinical outcomes,patientreported satisfaction,and improvements in medical service *** has been developed for specific surgical procedures,but with the fast progress of newly introduced surgical procedures,the original ERAS have been developed and *** appearing Topics and future research trends encompass ERAS protocols for other types of surgery and the enhancement of perioperative status,including but not limited to pediatric surgery,laparoscopic and robotic assisted surgery,bariatric surgery,thoracic surgery,and renal *** elements and pathways of ERAS have been developed with the introduction of up-to-date methodologies in the pre-operative,operative,and post-operative *** costs are higher than traditional care,but the patient’s clinical outcome and satisfaction are *** is in progress in the fields of anesthetic tasks,pediatric surgery,and organ *** ERAS has shown significant clinical outcomes,there are needs to modify the protocol for specific cases,hospital facilities,resources,and nurses training on elements of *** challenges and limitations exist in the implementation of ERAS that deserve consideration,it includes:Frailty,maximizing nutrition,prehabilitation,treating preoperative anemia,and enhancing ERAS adoption globally are all included.

关键词： Enhanced recovery after surgery Anesthesia Nurses Elderly Bowel preparation ERAS Perioperative nutrition Major&ambulatory surgery

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Optimization of Cooperative RelayingMolecular Communications for Nanomedical Applications

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2024年第2期138卷 1259-1275页

作者： Eman S.Attia Ashraf A.M.Khalaf Fathi E.Abd El-Samie saied M.Abd El-atty Konstantinos A.Lizos Osama Alfarraj Heba M.El-Hoseny Department of Electrical Engineering Faculty of EngineeringMinia UniversityMinia61111Egypt Department of Electronics and Electrical Communications Engineering Faculty of Electronic EngineeringMenoufia UniversityMenouf32952Egypt Department of Informatics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural SciencesUniversity of Oslo(UiO)OsloNorway Computer Science Department Community CollegeKing Saud UniversityRiyadh11437Saudi Arabia Department of Computer science The Higher Future Institute for Specialized Technological StudiesEl ShoroukEgypt

Recently,nano-systems based on molecular communications via diffusion(MCvD)have been implemented in a variety of nanomedical applications,most notably in targeted drug delivery system(TDDS)***,because the MCvD is unreliable and there exists molecular noise and inter symbol interference(ISI),cooperative nano-relays can acquire the reliability for drug delivery to targeted diseased cells,especially if the separation distance between the nano transmitter and nano receiver is *** this work,we propose an approach for optimizing the performance of the nano system using cooperative molecular communications with a nano relay scheme,while accounting for blood flow effects in terms of drift *** fractions of the molecular drug that should be allocated to the nano transmitter and nano relay positioning are computed using a collaborative optimization problem solved by theModified Central Force Optimization(MCFO)*** the previous work,the probability of bit error is expressed in a closed-form *** is used as an objective function to determine the optimal velocity of the drug molecules and the detection threshold at the nano *** simulation results show that the probability of bit error can be dramatically reduced by optimizing the drift velocity,detection threshold,location of the nano-relay in the proposed nano system,and molecular drug budget.

关键词： Nanomedical system molecular communication cooperative relay optimization

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