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Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)in Africa

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2020年第4期9卷 60-65页

作者： Salihu S.Musa Shi Zhao Maggie H.Wang Abdurrazaq G.Habib Umar t.Mustapha Daihai He Department of Applied Mathematics Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong KongChina Department of Mathematics Kano University of Science and TechnologyWudilNigeria JC School of Public Health and Primary Care Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong ShenzhenChina Collage of Health Sciences Bayero UnuversityKanoNigeria Department of Mathematics Federal University DutseDutseNigeria

Background:Since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Africa was detected on February 14,2020,the cumulative confirmations reached 15207 including 831 deaths by April 13,*** has been described as one of the most vulnerable region with the COVID-19 infection during the initial phase of the outbreak,due to the fact that Africa is a great commercial partner of China and some other EU and American *** result in large volume of travels by traders to the region more frequently and causing African countries face even bigger health threat during the COVID-19 ***,the fact that the control and management of COVID-19 pandemic rely heavily on a country's health care system,and on average Africa has poor health care system which make it more vulnerable indicating a need for timely intervention to curtail the *** this paper,we estimate the exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number(R0)of COVID-19 in Africa to show the potential of the virus to spread,and reveal the importance of sustaining stringent health measures to control the disease in ***:We analyzed the initial phase of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Africa between 1 March and 13 April 2020,by using the simple exponential growth *** examined the publicly available materials published by the WHO situation report to show the potential of COVID-19 to spread without sustaining strict health *** Poisson likelihood framework is adopted for data fitting and parameter *** modelled the distribution of COVID-19 generation interval(GI)as Gamma distributions with a mean of 4.7 days and standard deviation of 2.9 days estimated from previous work,and compute the basic reproduction ***:We estimated the exponential growth rate as 0.22 per day(95%CI:0.20-0.24),and the basic reproduction number,R0,as 2.37(95%CI:2.22-2.51)based on the assumption that the exponential growth starting from 1 March *** an R0 at 2.37,we quantif

关键词： COVID-19 Reproduction number Pandemic Statistical modelling

Evaluation of Efficacy of Insecticides and Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets for Control of Culex quinquefasciatus Say Populations from Northern Nigeria

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Advances in Entomology 2022年第2期10卷 186-203页

作者： Jamila A. Datti Muhammad M. Mukhtar Maimuna t. Usman Bilkisu I. Abba Binta G. Kurfi Sulaiman S. Ibrahim Department of Biochemistry Bayero University Kano Nigeria Department of Pharmacology and therapeutics Bayero University Kano Nigeria Department of Vector Biology Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine Pembroke Place UK

Information on Culex mosquitoes (vectors of filarial worm and viral encephalitis) from northern Nigeria is scanty, hindering evidence-based control. Here, two Culex populations (kano and Kaduna) were characterized. Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex pipiens were found breeding in sympatry, with some hybrid individuals identified. Larval bioassays revealed high temephos resistance (LC50s = 1.34 mg/mL and 3.01 mg/mL for kano and Kaduna, respectively). Larvae were more sensitive to α-cypermethrin (LC50s = 0.026 mg/mL and 0.067 mg/mL for kano and Kaduna). WHO adult tube bioassays revealed high pyrethroid and DDt resistance, with mortalities of 44.01% ± 6.79%, 35.83% ± 12.58%, 29.69% ± 9.97% and 52.47% ± 4.34% for permethrin, deltamethrin, α-cypermethrin and DDt, respectively. Highest resistance was observed with bendiocarb (mortality = 13.58% ± 3.98%). High resistance was obtained with fenitrothion and malathion (mortalities = 21% ± 4.76% and 56.47% ± 8.67%, respectively), while a full susceptibility was observed with pirimiphos-methyl. Pre-exposure to piperonylbutoxide (PBO) significantly recovered α-cypermethrin susceptibility (mortality = 82% ± 5.16%, χ2 = 50.99, p th the conventional bioassay (mortality = 32 ± 7.30). Mortalities of tained in cone bioassays with Yorkool, DuraNet and PermaNet3.0 (side panels) nets, suggesting a loss of efficacy of conventional long-lasting insecticidal nets. However, mortalities of 99% and 86% were obtained in kano and Kaduna populations using the roof of PermaNet3.0 (containing PBO and deltamethrin). Despite the high frequency of the 1014F VGSC knockdown resistance mutation allele (0.90), no correlation was observed between the 1014F kdr genotype and resistance phenotype. Sequencing of fragments of the acetylcholinesterase-1 gene detected no G119S mutation, in malathion-alive and malathion-dead females. these suggest a preeminent role of metabolic resistance in these Cu

关键词： Culex quinquefasciatus Metabolic Resistance Insecticides LLINs PBO P450s

Mathematical modeling and analysis of schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

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International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing 2021年第4期12卷 58-76页

作者： Umar t.Mustapha Salihu S.Musa Muhammad A.Lawan Aliyu Abba Evren Hincal Musa D.Mohammed Bashir D.Garba Rabiu B.Yunus Shehu A.Adamu Daihai He Department of Mathematics Near East University tRNC Mersin 10 Turkey Department of Mathematics Federal University Dutse Nigeria Department of Applied Mathematics the Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong Department of Mathematics kano University of Science and technology Wudil Nigeria Department of Statistics Jigawa State Polytechnic DutseNigeria Department of Computer Engineering Institute of Continuing Education kano University of Science and technology Wudil Nigeria Department of Mathematics and Statistics kano State Polytechnic Nigeria

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease from the family of Schistosomatidae and genus Schistosoma,which is caused by blood *** disease is endemic in many countries and still a serious threat to global public health and *** this paper,a new deterministic model is designed and analyzed qualitatively to explore the dynamics of schistosomiasis transmission in human,cattle and snail *** from our mathematical analysis show that the model has a disease-free equilibrium(DFE)which is locally asymptotically stable(LAS)whenever a particular epidemiological threshold quantity,also known as basic reproduction number(R0)is less than *** analysis shows that the model has a unique endemic equilibrium(EE)which is globally asymptotically stable whenever R0>1 and unstable when R0t partial rank correlation coefficient for sensitivity analysis to reveal the most important parameters for effective control and mitigation of schistosomiasis disease in a ***,we obtain some numerical results by simulating the entire dynamics of the model,which show that the infections in the compartments of each population decrease with respect to *** further indicates that avoiding contact with infected human,cattle or infested water is vital to prevent the spread of schistosomiasis disease infection.

关键词： Schistosomiasis disease basic reproduction number stability analysis sensitivity analysis

Prevalence and Predictors of Depression among Adolescents in Ido Ekiti, South West Nigeria

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International Journal of Clinical Medicine 2018年第3期9卷 187-202页

作者： K. O. Oderinde M. U. Dada O. C. Ogun N. S. Awunor B. M. Kundi H. K. Ahmed A. B. tsuung S. t. tanko A. A. Yusuff Department of Psychiatry Yobe State University Teaching Hospital Damaturu Nigeria Department of Psychiatry Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital Ado Ekiti Nigeria Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Department Federal Neuropsychiatric Hospital Lagos Nigeria Department of Community Medicine College of Health Sciences Delta State University Abraka Nigeria Department of Psychiatry Yobe State Specialist Hospital Damaturu Nigeria Department of Mental Health Federal Neuropsychiatric Hospital Maiduguri Nigeria Department of Family Medicine Yobe State University Teaching Hospital Damaturu Nigeria Department of Family Medicine Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital Kano Nigeria

Background: Depression among adolescents has been recognized as a public health problem all over the world. In Nigeria, as in most developing countries, there is a need for more research on the epidemiology of adolescent depression as this will guide prevention, diagnosis and treatment. Objectives: the study sought to determine the one month prevalence and predictors of depression among a sample of in-school adolescents in a rural region in South West Nigeria. Materials and Methods: this was a cross sectional descriptive survey among 540 secondary school students randomly selected from the six secondary schools in the study area using a Socio demographic Questionnaire and the Patient Health Questionnaire modified for Adolescents. Subsequently, a proportion of them were interviewed with the Kiddies Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia. Results: Data were analyzed using the SPSS version 17. Respondents were aged 10 - 19 years (mean age was 14.07 ± 1.84). the one month prevalence of depression among the study population was 16.3% (using weighting method). Logistic regression analysis showed that death of a mother (OR = 11.786, 95% CI, 1.990 - 23.184), being from a polygamous family (OR = 5.781, 95% CI, 3.253 - 24.371), low socioeconomic class (OR = 6.222, 95% CI, 4.705 - 23.379), having a single parent (OR = 2.236, 95% CI, 0.869 - 11.786), having witnessed frequent violence (OR = 12.411, 95% CI, 0.516 - 29.851) and positive history of sexual abuse (OR = 0.203, 95% CI, 0.003 - 0.529) were significantly and independently associated with depression in this sample of adolescents. Conclusion: the one month prevalence of adolescent depression within the study population is slightly higher than what has been reported in other parts of the world. therefore, there is a need for government to design and implement policies which can help to prevent, detect early, and treat depression among youths especially in rural areas.

关键词： Prevalence Depression Adolescents Predictors

FARMER-PARtICIPAtORY ON-FARM EVALUAtION OF StRIGA HERMONtHICA MANAGEMENt OPtIONS IN tHE NIGERIAN NORtHERN GUINEA SAVANNA PILOt SItE OF tHE SP-IPM

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FARMER-PARTICIPATORY ON-FARM EVALUATION OF STRIGA HERMONTHIC...