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A New Paradigm for Simulating and Forecasting China's Economic Growth in the Medium and Long Term

Chinese Geographical Science 2022年第1期32卷 64-78页

作者： sun dongqi LU Jiayi Key Laboratoty of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Taking the system philosophy of human-earth relationship as the theoretical axis,and under the three-dimensional goals of economic growth,social development,and protection of the ecological environment,this paper constructs the supporting system of China’s economic *** this basis,guided by the basic principles of system theory and system dynamics,and combined with the theories of other related disciplines,we constructed an economic geography-system dynamics(EG-SD)integrated forecasting model to simulate and quantitatively forecast China’s economic growth in the medium and long ***’s economic growth will be affected by quantifiable and unquantifiable *** the main unquantifiable factors are not taken into account in the simulation and prediction of China’s economic growth in the medium and long term,the accuracy and objectivity of the prediction results will be ***,based on situation analysis(Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,and Threats,SWOT),we combined scenario analysis with the Delphi method,and established a qualitative prediction simulation model(referred to as the S-D compound prediction model)to make up for the shortcomings associated with quantitative simulation ***-SD and S-D are organically combined to construct a simulation and prediction paradigm of China’s economic growth in the medium and long *** paradigm not only realizes the integration of various forecasting methods and the combination of qualitative and quantitative measures,but also realizes the organic combination of unquantifiable and quantifiable elements by innovatively introducing fuzzy simulation of system dynamics,which renders the simulation and prediction results more objective and accurate.

关键词： economic growth simulation and prediction prediction model fuzzy simulation paradigm

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Regional Differentiation Regularity and Influencing Factors of Population Change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2021年第5期31卷 888-899页

作者： GAO Xingchuan LI Tao sun dongqi Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Northwest Land and Resources Research Center Shaanxi Normal UniversityXi'an 710119China

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) is the most unique region of human-land relations, and its main factor is population. By building a population and space dataset of the QTP at the township level from 1982 to 2017, this paper presents the pattern evolvement and regional distribution characteristics of township-level population in the QTP in detail for the first time. By using Geodetector method to analyze the influencing factors of township-level population change in the QTP, this paper provides scientific foundations for studying the Third Pole, ecological environment protection of the QTP, and human-land relations. The conclusions are as follows:1) The population spatial distribution is not balanced at the township level, presents the regional differentiation characteristics of ‘dense in southeast and sparse in northwest’ along the ‘Qilian-Jilong Line’, and demonstrates the phenomenon of population center of gravity moving to the hinterland of the plateau at an accelerated speed;2) The township-level population develops in a decentralized trend in general, and the cold-and hot-spot distribution of population has prominent spatial distribution characteristics. The population hot spots are concentrated in the surrounding areas of Xining, Golmud, Hotan and Lijiang;3) The population of the QTP is increasing, and the inter-annual change of township population has a relatively stable regional regularity;4) The level of per capita income is the leading factor in the change of township population, and its effect intensity is increasing continuously. The relative effect intensity of urbanization level and location conditions on population change has decreased significantly after 2000. The adaptability of living environment,such as topography and climate, has little influence on population change.

关键词： population change regional differentiation influencing factors township level Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) China

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On reducible Heegaard splittings

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Science China Mathematics 2013年第2期56卷 221-226页

作者： sun dongqi LEI FengChun LI FengLing School of Mathematical Sciences Dalian University of Technology College of Science Harbin Engineering University

Let Ⅴ∪S W be a reducible Heegaard splitting of genus g = g（S） ≥ 2. For a maximal prime connected sum decomposition of Ⅴ∪S W, let q denote the number of the genus 1 Heegaard splittings of S2 × S1 in the decomposition, and p the number of all other prime factors in the decomposition. The main result of the present paper is to describe the relation of p, q and dim（Cy ∩ Cw）.

关键词： curve complex Heegaard splitting reducible weakly reducible

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Connectedness of curve complex of surface

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Science China Mathematics 2014年第4期57卷 847-854页

作者： sun dongqi LEI FengChun LI FengLing School of Mathematical Sciences Dalian University of Technology College of Science Harbin Engineering University

For a closed orientable surface Sg of genus not smaller than 2,C(Sg) is the curve complex on S g whose vertices consist of the isotopy classes of nontrivial circles on Sg. It has been showed that any two vertices in C(Sg) can be connected by an edge path,and C(Sg) has an infinite diameter. We show that for 0 ≤i≤3g-5,two i-simplices can be connected by an(i +1)-path in C(Sg),and the diameter of C(Sg) under such a distance is infinite.

关键词： curve complex connectedness i-distance surface

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Energy Abundance and China's Economic Growth: 2000–2014

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Chinese Geographical Science 2017年第5期27卷 673-683页

作者： sun dongqi LU Dadao LI Yu ZHOU Liang ZHANG Mingdou Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences Faculty of Geomatics Lanzhou Jiaotong University School of Public Administration Dongbei University of Finance and Economics

Based on the interprovincial panel data of 2000–2014, this paper carries out an empirical analysis on the relationship between energy abundance and economic growth to test the theoretical hypothesis of ‘resource curse' and explore its transmission mechanism for China and its three regions. The results show that, at the national level, positive correlation is present between energy abundance and economic growth, proving that the ‘resource curse' phenomenon does not exist in China as a whole. Moreover, material capital input, human capital input and the level of opening to the outside world could promote economic growth, while technology innovation input may hinder economic growth. As seen by region, a positive correlation also exists between the energy abundance and economic growth in the eastern and western regions, and there is no ‘resource curse' phenomenon either. In all three regions, the human capital input could promote economic growth. Material capital input could promote economic growth in the eastern but hinder economic growth in the western region; the level of opening to the outside world could promote economic growth in the eastern region. It is known through further survey and analysis on the transmission mechanism of resource curse that, at the national level, material capital input, human capital input, and the level of opening to the outside world present positive correlation with energy abundance, indicating that energy development becomes an important transmission factor by strengthening material capital input and human capital input and raising the level of opening to the outside world. However, technology innovation input presents negative correlation with energy development. As seen by region, both the material capital input and human capital input present positive correlation with energy development strength in the three regions. Similar as the eastern region, the level of opening to the outside world presents positive correlation with energy i

关键词： energy abundance resource curse economic growth transmission mechanism China

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Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Urban Land Surface Temperature Based on Local Climate Zones in Xi’an Metropolitan,China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2023年第6期33卷 1001-1016页

作者： ZHANG Liping ZHOU Liang YUAN Bo HU Fengning ZHANG Qian WEI Wei sun dongqi Faculty of Geomatics Lanzhou Jiaotong UniversityLanzhou730070China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China Department of Geography and Environment University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii96822USA College of Geography and Environmental Science Northwest Normal UniversityLanzhou730070China

Local climate zones(LCZs)are an effective nexus linking internal urban structures to the local climate and have been widely used to study urban thermal ***,few studies considered how much the temperature changed due to LCZs transformation and their *** paper quantified the change of urban land surface temperature(LST)in LCZs transformation process by combining the land use transfer matrix with zonal statistics method during 2000–2019 in the Xi’an *** results show that,firstly,both LCZs and LST had significant spatiotemporal variations and *** period when the most LCZs were converted was also the LST rose the fastest,and the spatial growth of the LST coincided with the spatial expansion of the built type ***,the LST difference between land cover type LCZs and built type LCZs gradually *** LST rose more in both built type LCZs transferred in and ***,the Xi’an-Xianyang profile showed that the maximum temperature difference between the peaks and valleys of the LST increased by 4.39℃,indicating that localized high temperature phenomena and fluctuations in the urban thermal environment became more pronounced from 2000 to 2019.

关键词： urban land surface temperature(LST) local climate zones(LCZs) thermal environment time series urban sustainable development Xi’an metropolitan,China

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A review of Geographical Dynamics and Firm Spatial Strategy in China by Shengjun Zhu, John Pickles and Canfei He

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2017年第10期27卷 1279-1280页

作者： sun dongqi Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China

Shengjun Zhu, John Pickles and Canfei He＇s Geographical Dynamics and Firm Spatial Strategy in China is a critical contribution to economic geography and broader human geography. Rather than being the output from a single research project, the book is a compilation and reanalysis of materials from a range of projects that Zhu, Pickles and He carried out between 2012-2015 in Ningbo, Yongkang, and Shangyu, Zhejiang Province. Interview findings are supplemented with secondary information collected from sector-specific publications, company reports, and websites. One database on firm-specific economic and financial variables is central to the firm level analysis in this research： China＇s Annual Survey of Industrial Firms （1998-2009）.

关键词： Geographical Dynamics Strategy

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Zoning assessment of water environmental supporting capacity for socioeconomic development in the Huaihe River Basin, China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第10期25卷 1199-1217页

作者： ZHOU Liang sun dongqi XU Jiangang School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China School of Architecture and Urban Planning Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China

There have been substantial conflicts in the human-water relationship in the Huaihe River Basin （HRB）. To achieve sustainable economic development without degrading the water environment in the HRB, we develop a three-dimensional water environmental sup- porting capacity （WESC） model based on water environmental carrying capacity （WECC）, water environmental pressure （WEP）, and water pollution prevention and control capacity （WPPC）. Geographic information systems spatial analysis with the analytical hierarchy process method and dynamic weighted summation is applied. Several proposals for suitable locations for industry and environmental protection strategies for water were presented. The following results were obtained. （1） The spatial differences in WECC are substantial; areas with high-value WECC zones are mainly located along the main stream of the Huaihe River on the south side. WEP is generally high, with an overall low level of pollution prevention and control in the whole HRB. WPPC and WEP show high spatial overlapping due to the fact that areas with higher environmental pollution usually have high level of economic development, and thus have a strong capacity for pollution control. （2） Overall, WESC is moderate in the HRB. In particular, areas with a high WESC value only account for 56.24% of the HRB in 2010 Distinct differences in WESC also exist between areas located in the south compared with in the north of the basin, and areas alongside the downstream region compared with alongside the upstream and midstream regions. （3） Consequently, according to the guidance for indus- try zoning in the HRB, the areas in the south and alongside the downstream and sub-streams with a low WEP value and high WECC and WPPC, traditional industries should be developed based on strict environmental access and pollution emission standards. While for the areas along the midstream of the HRB and along the whole Yishusi River Basin, which have a high WEP value, industrial restruct

关键词： Huaihe River Basin socioeconomic development supporting capacity 3D model water environment

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Space-time analysis of the changing patterns of population pressure on the ecological environment in China

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2015年第4期13卷 341-348页

作者： dongqi sun Jinliang Jiang Jianbin Xu Liang Zhou Yi Hu Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences Nanjing University College of Geography and Planning Ludong University Urban-Rural Planning Administration Center Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development

This paper examines the temporal change and spatial variation of population pressure on the ecological environment in *** have collected sufficient data from the statistical yearbooks of 31 provincial administrative areas in 1990,1995,2000,2005,and *** a geographic information system(GIS) and relevant models,we analyzed the trend of the population pressure on ecological environment and the change of the gravity center of ecological environment *** conclude that:(1) generally,population pressure on the ecological environment in China was becoming higher during1990-2010,especially in some areas where the population and environment were in serious imbalance and the ecological environment experienced severe pollution;(2) during a certain period,population pressure on the ecological environment was becoming lower in some areas,but the ecological environment was getting worse;(3) the areas with super-high population pressure on the ecological environment were Beijing,Tianjin,and Shanghai;(4) the gravity center of population pressure on the ecological environment and the center of ecological environment quality move differently during the study time period,but the general trend was similar- both of them were moving from west to *** on the analysis,this paper also provides some policy suggestions on the control of ecological environment quality.

关键词： Chinese population eco-environment eco-environmental pressure changing trend space-time analysis

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资源环境承载力与中国经济发展可持续性模拟

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地理学报 2019年第12期74卷 2604-2613页

作者：牛方曲孙东琪中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室北京100101 中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心昆明650500

1978年改革开放以来中国经济创造了长期高速增长的奇迹,但人和自然关系出现严重不协调,突出表现为资源的过度消耗与环境污染的加剧。与此同时,为实现2050年成为现代化强国的发展目标,中国亟需持续发展。为此,中国学者和政府需着力解决... 详细信息

1978年改革开放以来中国经济创造了长期高速增长的奇迹,但人和自然关系出现严重不协调,突出表现为资源的过度消耗与环境污染的加剧。与此同时,为实现2050年成为现代化强国的发展目标,中国亟需持续发展。为此,中国学者和政府需着力解决问题是,在未来中长期内,中国应当期望多高的经济增长率及其对应的发展模式或调控手段?本文对影响乃至决定国民经济增长的资源环境支撑系统以及建立在这之上的发展模式进行分析,揭示经济增长及发展模式与支撑系统之间的耦合关系,模拟发展与环境之间相互作用过程,阐释未来经济增长可能的方案及其对资源环境支撑系统(主要因素)的要求,对中国资源环境状态和发展状态做出预警。模拟结果显示,为实现2050年进入发达国家行列并保持良好生态环境的发展目标,在考虑技术进步会改善资源利用效率和污染排放的前提下,中国采取3.8%~6.3%的经增速较为适宜。在该区间内,3.8%~4.4%是较为安全的发展速度,而4.4%~6.3%的发展速度则要求较高的技术进步。本文所构建的系统动力学模型可用于对比分析不同发展情景,选择更优发展方案,为实现国家的可持续发展提供决策支持。本研究也是对"未来地球"框架文件的响应,从人口和产业发展速度方面发展了资源环境承载力的理论体系,具有重要理论探索意义和应用价值。

关键词：资源环境承载力人-地系统可持续发展增长速度系统动力学

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