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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： FAN Ke1,2,3 & wang huijun2 1. nansen-zhu {4. research {4., Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10004., china nansen-zhu international research {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

Extraseasonal ensemble numerical predictions of winter climate over china

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第19期48卷 2121-2125页

作者： LANG Xianmei, wang huijun & JIANG Dabang nansen-zhu {4. research {4. and LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china nansen-zhu international research {4. and LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Using the nine-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM) under the chinese academy of sciences, 30-year extraseasonal short-term ensemble hincast of winter climate is performed, with integrations starting from annual autumn during 1969—1998. Winter climate predictability over china is then evaluated for the first time. It follows that the predictability is higher in tropics than in extratropics. Also, it is higher over ocean compared with land, especially for surface air temperature. With height increasing in troposphere, the predictability of geopotential height slightly changes zonally, but for weakening of band-ship distribution and dropping near the date line. Of all analyzed variables, the prediction skill of air temperature and geopotential height (precipitation) is the highest (smallest). In addition, the predictability of winter climate over china and even East Asia enhances obviously during ENSO cycle, especially during La Nia phase. Simulation comparison against verifying analysis for surface temperature anomaly exhibits the model抯 skill in predicting surface temperature抯 interannual variation trend in winter.

关键词：冬季气候中国气候预报数字模型表面温度

Relationship and its instability of ENSO--chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

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Science china Earth sciences 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： su mingfeng1,2 & wang huijun1 1 nansen-zhu international research center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029,{4. 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100039,{4. nansen-zhu international research {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China nansen-zhu international research {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951―2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of{4., especially North{4., but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest{4.. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2000, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over{4., which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over{4. on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2―3 decades climate changes over{4., especially North{4.'s drying and northwest{4.'s wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3―8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951―1962 and 1976―1991, but low during 1963―1975 and 1992―2000.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN huijun wang Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu international research {4. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century

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Science Bulletin 2005年第17期 109-115页

作者： JIANG Dabang1, 2 & wang huijun1 1. nansen-zhu {4. research {4., Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Tem-perate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 194.―2002 as derived from the United States National centers for Environmental Prediction and National center for Atmos-pheric research, it is revealed that East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are re-corded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 20th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution center and the Hadley center for Climate Prediction and research, are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro-nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 21st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 20th century.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change.

Distinct Interannual Variability and Physical Mechanisms of Snowfall Frequency over the Eurasian Continent during Autumn and Winter

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第10期41卷 1969-1983,I0011-I0013页

作者： Siyu ZHOU Bo suN* huijun wang Yi ZHENG Jiarui CAI Huixin LI Botao ZHOU Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai 519080China nansen zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical *** first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North *** sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the *** increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall *** contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during *** the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit *** NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.

关键词： snowfall frequency Eurasian continent sea ice atmospheric circulation interannual variability Indian Ocean dipole

Advanced modeling of the absorption enhancement of black carbon particles in chamber experiments by considering the morphology and coating thickness

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2024年第9期18卷 129-142页

作者： Xiaodong Wei Jianlin Hu Chao Liu Xiaodong Xie Junjie Yin Song Guo Min Hu Jianfei Peng huijun wang Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologySchool of Environmental Science and EngineeringNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(Ministry of Education)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China nansen−zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China East china Air Traffic Management Bureau CAAC Shanghai 200335China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control International Joint Laboratory for Regional Pollution Control(IJRC)(Ministry of Education)College of Environmental Sciences and EngineeringPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Tianjin Key Laboratory of Urban Transport Emission research&State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Urban Ambient Air Particulate Matter Pollution Prevention and Control College of Environmental Science and EngineeringNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China

Measurements studies have shown that the absorption of radiation by black carbon(BC)increases as the particles ***,there are significant discrepancies between the measured and modeled absorption enhancement(E_(abs)),largely due to the simplifications used in modeling the mixing states and shape *** took advantage of chamber experiments on BC aging and developed an efficient method to resolve the particle shape based on the relationship between the coating fraction(ΔD_(ve)/D_(ve),0)and fractal dimension(D_(f)),which can also reflect the variations of D_(f)during the whole BC aging *** with externally and partly mixed states(0≤ΔD_(ve)/D_(ve),0≤0.5)can be considered to be uniformly distributed with the D_(f)values of 1.8–2.1,whereas the Df values are constrained in the range 2.2–2.8 for fully mixed states(ΔD_(ve)/D_(ve),0>0.5).The morphological parameters(i.e.,the effective density and the dynamic shape factor)were compared with the measured values to verify the simulated *** simulated mean deviations of morphological parameters were smaller than 8%for the method resolving the particle *** applying a realistic shape and refractive index,the mass absorption cross for fully mixed states can be improved by 11%compared with a simplified core–shell *** on our understanding of the influence of D_(f)andΔD_(ve)/D_(ve),0 on E_(abs),we propose a two-stage calibration equation to correct the E_(abs)values estimated by the core–shell model,which reduces the simulation error in the Mie calculation by 6%–14..

关键词： Black carbon Mixing states Fractal dimension Dynamic shape factor Absorption enhancement

Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK huijun wang Ke FAN Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China nansen-zhu international research {4. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian Institute for Air research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions

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Science Bulletin 2011年第9期56卷 892-901页

作者： YAN Qing1,2*, ZHANG ZhongShi3,1*, wang huijun1,4. JIANG DaBang1,4.5 & ZHENG WeiPeng6 1 nansen-zhu {4. research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10004., china 3 Bjerknes Centre for Climate research, Uniresearch, Bergen N-5007, Norway 4.Climate Change research center, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 5 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 6 National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china nansen-zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Bjerknes Centre for Climate research UniResearch Climate Change research center Chinese Academy

The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12–2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3—to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions, we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Ni?o in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3°C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at midand high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3 data, especially for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and west coast of South America. However, there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic, the weakened meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific, the whole ocean warmed, especially the eastern tropical Pacific, which did not support the permanent El Ni?o suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction, we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions, difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through cons

关键词： Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature permanent El Ni?o numerical modeling extreme warming