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Game model of safety monitoring for arch dam deformation

Science china(Technological Sciences) 2008年第S2期51卷 76-81页

作者： su huaizhi1,2.wu zhongru1,{2.,2.hu jiang1 & wen zhiping3 1 college of water conservancy and hydropower engineering,hohai university,Nanjing 2.0098,china 2.National engineering Research Center of water Resources Efficient Utilization and engineering Safety,Nanjing 2.0098,china 3 Department of Computer engineering,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 2.0013,china college of water {2. and hydropower engineering Hohai University Nanjing 210098 China National engineering Research Center of water Resources Efficient Utilization and engineering Safety Nanjing 210098 China Department of Computer engineering Nanjing Institute of Technology Nanjing 210013 China

Arch dam deformation is comprehensively affected by water pressure,temperature,dam's structural behavior and material properties as well as other *** them the water pressure and temperature are external factors(source factors) that cause dam deformation,and dam's structural behavior and material properties are the internal factors of deformation(resistance factors).The dam deformation is the result of the mutual game playing between source factors and resistance ***,resistance factors of structure and materials that reflect resistance character of arch dam structure are introduced into the traditional model,where structure factor is embodied by the flexibility coefficient of dam body and the maximum dam height,and material property is embodied by the elastic modulus of *** the basis of analyzing the correlation between dam deformation and resistance factors,the game model of safety monitoring for arch dam deformation is put forward.

关键词： arch dam deformation monitoring model flexibility coefficient game theory

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Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability

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Science china(Technological Sciences) 2009年第7期52卷 1966-1973页

作者： su huaizhi {2. zhiping hu jiang wu zhongru college of water {2. and hydropower engineering of hohai university Nanjing 210098China National engineering Research Center of water Resources Efficient Utilization and engineering Safety Nanjing 210098China college of Computer engineering Nanjing Institute of TechnologyNanjing 211167China

For many dam projects in china, the 50-year designed life time is coming to an end. It is urgent to study the theory and method to evaluate the dam service life. In this paper, firstly, the probability theory of fuzzy event and time-varying effect theory are used to analyze the time-variety of various risk factors in the process of dam operations. A method is proposed to quantify the above time-variety and a model to describe the fuzzy time-varying risk probability for the dam structure is also built. Secondly, the information entropy theory is used to analyze the uncertain degree relationship between the characteristic value of membership function and fuzzy risk probability, and a mathematical method is presented to calculate the time-varying risk probability accordingly. Thirdly, the relation mode between time-varying risk probability and service life is discussed. Based on this relation mode and the acceptable risk probability of dams in china, a method is put forward to evaluate and forecast the dam service life. Finally, the proposed theory and method are used to analyze one concrete dam. The dynamic variability and mutation feature of the dam risk probability are analyzed. The remaining service life of this dam is forecasted. The obtained re{2.lts can provide technology {2.pport for the project management department to make treatment mea{2.res of engineering and reasonably arrange reinforce cost. The principles in this paper have wide applicability and can be used in risk analysis for slope instability and other fields.

关键词： dam service life evaluation time-varying risk probability fuzzy probability theory information entropy theory

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