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Long-term reconstruction of flash floods in the Qilian Mountains,China,based on dendrogeomorphic methods

Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第11期19卷 3163-3177页

作者： QIE Jia-zhi ZHANG Yong TRAPPMANN Daniel ZHONG Yi-hua BALLESTEROS-CÁNOVAS Juan Antonio FAVILLIER Adrien stoffel markus Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene(C-CIA) Institute for Environmental SciencesUniversity of GenevaGeneva CH-1205Switzerland Dendrolab.ch Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GenevaGeneva CH-1205Switzerland National Museum of Natural Sciences MNCN-CSICC/Serrano 115bis28006MadridSpain Department F.-A.Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences University of GenevaGeneva CH-1205Switzerland

In China,flash floods are one of the main natural disasters causing loss of life and damage to *** threat of flash floods is exacerbated with climate change and increased human activities,such that the number of disasters has shown a clear upward trend in recent ***,due to the scarcity of instrumental data or overly short timeseries,we are still lacking critical data to understand spatio-temporal patterns and driving factors of extreme flash *** missing knowledge is however crucial for a proper management of these hazards,especially in remote mountain *** forested catchments,dendrogeomorphology allows the reconstruction of past process activity based on growth disturbances(GDs)in trees that have been affected by past flash ***,in our study,for the first time,we reconstruct past flash floods in the Qilian Mountains,northeast Tibetan Plateau,over past *** this end,we sampled 99 Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia)trees affected by flash floods,with a total of 194increment cores,and identified 302 GDs induced by past flash *** GDs have been caused by at least 21 flash floods that we are able to reconstruct over the last 170 *** position of GDs within tree rings and the intra-seasonal dating of past events also allowed discussion of the likely synoptic situations that may have led to the triggering of flash floods in the *** regression analysis confirms that significant correlation exists between cumulative maximum 5-day August-September precipitation and reconstructed flash floods,which is corresponding to the majority of scars and related tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts(TRDs)found in the latewood portion of growth *** results support the idea that abundant precipitation occurring at the end of the summer season and early fall is the key factor driving flash floods in our study *** research not only fills the gaps regarding historical flash flood histories in

关键词： Tree ring Dendrogeomorphology Flash floods Qinghai spruce Qilian Mountains

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Reconstruction of debris-flow activity in a temperate mountain forest catchment of central Mexico

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第9期16卷 2096-2109页

作者： Osvaldo FRANCO-RAMOS markus stoffel Juan Antonio BALLESTEROS-CANOVAS Instituto de Geografia. Universidad NacionalAutonoma de Mexico Ciudad Universitaria Coyoacan 04510 Mexico Dendrolab.ch Department of Earth Sciences University of Geneva 13 rue des Maraichers CH-1205 Geneva Switzerland Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA) Institute for Environmental Sciences University of Geneva 66 Boulevard Carl-Vogt CH-1205 Geneva Switzerland Department F.-A. Forelfor Environmental and Aquatic Sciences University of Geneva 66 Boulevard Carl-Vogt CH- 1205 Geneva Switzerland

The use of dendrochronology to study and date geomorphic processes in volcanic environments is still incipient, even more so on the volcanic slopes covered by temperate forests in central Mexico. Mass movements, such as debris flows, often impact forest stands where they cause damage to individual trees, thereby generating growth disturbances(GD) in the tree-ring records. The identification and dating of GD enables reconstruction of the age of trees colonizing bare surfaces after major events, but also allows the assessment of the frequency or spatial distribution of past geomorphic process activity. Here we used increment cores from 65 Pinus leiophylla, Abies religiosa, and Alnus jorullensis trees growing in the Axal gorge, on the southern slopes of La Malinche volcano, to unravel past debris-flow activity both temporally and spatially. Based on the combination of GD records, a weighted tree response index(Wit), field evidence and hydrometeorological records, we reconstructed 23 debris flows since ***, almost two-thirds of the reconstructed years with debris-flow activity in Axal gorge match with events recorded in Axaltzintle gorge located on the NE slopes of La Malinche. These findings suggest a regional triggering mechanism, most likely related to the occurrence of hurricanes. This research could be useful for disaster risk management of the La Malinche National Park.

关键词： Debris flows La Malinche volcano Dendrogeomorphology Temperate forest Hydrometeorological phenomena

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高分辨率卫星影像和地貌证据揭示第三极地区大量未记录的历史冰湖溃决洪水事件

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Science Bulletin 2021年第13期66卷 1270-1273,M0003页

作者：郑国雄包安明 Simon Allen Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas 袁野古丽·加帕尔 markus stoffel State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene Institute for Environmental SciencesUniversity of GenevaGeneva 1205Switzerland University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of Geography University of ZurichZurich 8057Switzerland Dendrolab.ch Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GenevaGeneva 1205Switzerland Department of F.A.Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences University of GenevaGeneva 1205Switzerland

青藏高原及其周边区域通常被称为地球“第三极”.它不仅是受全球气候变暖影响最显著的区域之一,同时也是全球冰湖溃决洪水(Glacial Lake Outburst Floods,GLOFs)灾害频发的地区之一.尽管之前已经有很多发生在第三极地区的GLOF事件被报道... 详细信息

青藏高原及其周边区域通常被称为地球“第三极”.它不仅是受全球气候变暖影响最显著的区域之一,同时也是全球冰湖溃决洪水(Glacial Lake Outburst Floods,GLOFs)灾害频发的地区之一.尽管之前已经有很多发生在第三极地区的GLOF事件被报道,但考虑到GLOFs通常发生在高海拔无人区以及一些小规模的GLOFs并没有对下游地区造成太大的破坏,可能仍然有一些已经发生的GLOF事件并没有被发现和报道.基于此假设,本文借助大量高分辨率的卫星影像和3个GLOF发生后遗留的典型地貌形态特征对整个第三极地区6万多个冰湖进行了全面和系统地检查,最终识别出176个之前没有被记录的GLOF源头,其中167个来自冰碛坝湖,9个来自基岩坝湖.这一数量是所有已报道GLOF源头数量(75个)的2倍多.综合这些新发现的和已报道的GLOF案例,本文总结出第三极地区GLOF高发的4个热点地区为:喜马拉雅、冈底斯山、念青唐古拉山和天山地区.这些新识别的GLOF案例将为未来的研究提供重要的基础,从而有助于更好地认识和理解第三极地区GLOF的发生机理及真实的发生频率.

关键词：念青唐古拉山第三极高分辨率卫星影像热点地区 F事件无人区天山地区

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从木材解剖学视角看公元6世纪中期晚古小冰期的开始时间

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Science Bulletin 2022年第22期67卷 2336-2344页

作者： Ulf Büntgen Alan Crivellaro Dominique Arseneault Mike Baillie David Barclay Mauro Bernabei Jarno Bontadi Gretel Boswijk David Brown Duncan AChristie Olga VChurakova Edward RCook Rosanne D’Arrigo Nicole Davi Jan Esper Patrick Fonti Ciara Greaves Rashit MHantemirov Malcolm KHughes Alexander VKirdyanov Paul JKrusic Carlos Le Quesne Fredrik CLjungqvist Michael McCormick Vladimir SMyglan Kurt Nicolussi Clive Oppenheimer Jonathan Palmer 秦春 Frederick Reinig Matthew Salzer markus stoffel Max Torbenson Mirek Trnka Ricardo Villalba Nick Wiesenberg Greg Wiles 杨保 Alma Piermattei Department of Geography University of CambridgeCambridge CB23ENUK Swiss Federal Research Institute(WSL) Birmensdorf 8903Switzerland Global Change Research Centre(CzechGlobe) Brno 60300Czech Republic Department of Geography Faculty of ScienceMasaryk UniversityBrno 61300Czech Republic Forest Biometrics Laboratory Faculty of Forestry“Stefan cel Mare”University of SuceavaSuceava 720229Romania Department of Biology Chemistry and GeographyUniversity of Quebec in RimouskiRimouski Qc.G5L 3A1Canada Archaeology&Palaeoecology School of Natural and Built EnvironmentQueen’s University BelfastBelfast BT71NNUK Department of Geology State University of New York at CortlandCortland NY 13045USA CNR-IBE Institute of BioEconomyNational Research CouncilTrento 38121Italy School of Environment The University of AucklandAuckland 1010New Zealand Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global Universidad Austral de ChileValdivia 509000Chile Center for Climate and Resilience Research(CR) Santiago 8370449Chile Cape Horn International Center(CHIC) Punta Arenas 6200000Chile Institute of Ecology and Geography Siberian Federal UniversityKrasnoyarsk 660041Russia Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisades NY 10964USA Department of Environmental Science William Paterson UniversityWayne NJ 07470USA Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg UniversityMainz 55099Germany Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology Ural BranchRussian Academy of SciencesYekaterinburg 620144Russia Ural Institute of Humanities Ural Federal UniversityYekaterinburg 620002Russia Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of ArizonaTucson AZ 85721USA Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS Krasnoyarsk 660036Russia Department of Physical Geography Bolin Centre for Climate ResearchStockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Department of History Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study

公元536~540年间的大规模火山喷发使得晚古小冰期成为过去两千年最为寒冷的时期.然而,受限于现有气候代用资料的时间分辨率和空间覆盖度,晚古小冰期的开始时间和空间范围仍存有争议.本文分析了全球23个森林样点、20个树种的106个树轮样... 详细信息

公元536~540年间的大规模火山喷发使得晚古小冰期成为过去两千年最为寒冷的时期.然而,受限于现有气候代用资料的时间分辨率和空间覆盖度,晚古小冰期的开始时间和空间范围仍存有争议.本文分析了全球23个森林样点、20个树种的106个树轮样本资料,从细胞尺度揭示了公元530~550年间北半球发生的短暂夏季冷却现象.经过交叉定年和染色处理后,在北半球的树轮样品中共识别出89个蓝轮(缺失细胞壁木质化过程)、9个霜轮(细胞分裂受阻)和93个浅轮(细胞壁增厚减弱).研究结果表明,公元536年7月中旬至8月初期间整个北美和欧亚大陆均发生了最剧烈的温度下降,而更多的区域性“冷夏”出现于公元532年、540~543年和548年.然而,本研究在南半球的树轮资料中并未发现异常的解剖结构,其原因可能与南半球的海洋热惯性减缓了火山降温效应有关,也或与南半球其时正值非生长季有关.相较于传统的树轮年代学方法,本研究的木材解剖学的方法能为地球系统模式提供更为精细的参考标准,有望服务于气候与人类历史交叉学科研究,同时对“全球气候平均”概念的使用提出质疑.

关键词：地球系统模式小冰期火山喷发树轮年代学全球气候欧亚大陆冷夏染色处理

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Development of a Long-Term Operational Optimization Model for a Building Energy System Supplied by a Geothermal Field

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Journal of Thermal Science 2022年第5期31卷 1293-1301页

作者： KÜMPEL Alexander stoffel Phillip MÜLLER Dirk RWTH Aachen University E.ON Energy Research CenterInstitute for Energy Efficient Buildings and Indoor ClimateAachen 52074Germany

In order to reduce energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions in the building sector, more and more renewable energy sources are integrated into energy systems. Especially geothermal fields combined with heat pumps are able to supply buildings with heat and cold at low carbon emissions. However, using geothermal fields as heat and cold source influences the ground temperature. Consequently, the ground temperature can change dramatically over a building’s lifetime, leading to less efficient operation of the energy system. Therefore, a sustainable operation is required to ensure the long-term efficiency of geothermal fields. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to derive operating strategies for an efficient long-term operation of a building energy system coupled to a geothermal field. The investigated energy system is the main building of the *** Energy Research Center in Aachen, Germany, which includes a heat pump, two boilers, a combined heat, and power unit, a glycol cooler, and a geothermal field with 41 probes. For each component, we develop energy-based sub-models, which are connected to form the overall system. The geothermal field is modeled by using a g-functions approach as well as a simplified resistance-capacitance approach. To achieve short computing times and realize an optimization horizon of several years, the optimization problem is formulated as mixed-integer linear programming(MILP). The developed model is optimized regarding two different objectives: the minimization of energy costs and the minimization of long-term temperature changes in the ground. Conclusions for an efficient and sustainable operation of the field, especially for the cooling supply, can be derived from the optimization results. It is shown that a state of equilibrium should be aimed to achieve an energy-efficient operation, in which the temperature of the field is close to the initial ground temperature.

关键词： geothermal energy building energy systems operational optimization long-term operation

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Cloud-Based Optimal Control of Individual Borehole Heat Exchangers in a Geothermal Field

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Journal of Thermal Science 2022年第5期31卷 1253-1265页

作者： stoffel Phillip KÜMPEL Alexander MÜLLER Dirk RWTH Aachen University E.ON Energy Research CenterInstitute for Energy Efficient Buildings and Indoor Climate52074 AachenGermany

Integrating renewable energy sources is a crucial component in reducing CO_(2) emissions in the building sector. In particular, shallow geothermal energy is expected to play a significant role in the regenerative energy supply of buildings. An effective control strategy for the geothermal field is crucial to reduce the overall energy consumption. This paper analyzes the benefits of controlling an existing field’s individual borehole heat exchangers(BHE) using nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) and moving horizon estimation. The considered geothermal field consists of 41 BHEs and is used for heating and cooling. Each BHE is equipped with temperature sensors for in-and outflow and has individually controllable valves, while a central hydraulic pump feeds all BHEs. The sensor measurements are accessed through a cloud platform, enabling also set point writing for the pump speed and the valve positions. To control the BHEs individually, we propose a two-stage process. In the calibration stage, a moving horizon estimator estimates the actual borehole and ground temperatures for each BHE. In the second stage, first, a nonlinear model predictive controller optimizes the number of active BHEs necessary to meet the buildings’ energy demand. With the estimated ground temperatures as a basis, it is determined which BHEs shall be(de)-activated. The active BHEs are fed with a fixed volume flow of 24 L/min to ensure turbulent heat transfer. To reduce the power usage of the pumps, an optimal control problem based on a simple hydraulic model of the geothermal field is used. The methodology is analyzed through simulations first and then validated experimentally. The results show that half or more of the BHEs could be deactivated most of the time, leading to 67% savings in electricity consumption by the hydraulic pump. The experimental validation confirms the high energy saving potential of the proposed methodology, reducing the consumption of electrical energy by 71%. Additiona

关键词： geothermal energy moving horizon estimation model predictive control operation optimization optimal control

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Safe operation of online learning data driven model predictive control of building energy systems

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Energy and AI 2023年第4期14卷 536-549页

作者： Phillip stoffel Patrick Henkel Martin Ratz Alexander Kumpel Dirk Muller RWTH Aachen University E.ON Energy Research CenterInstitute for Energy Efficient Buildings and Indoor ClimateMathieustraße 10Aachen52074Germany

Model predictive control is a promising approach to reduce the CO 2 emissions in the building ***,the vast modeling effort hampers the widescale practical ***,data-driven process models,like artificial neural networks,are well-suited to automatize the ***,the underlying data set strongly determines the quality and reliability of artificial neural *** general,the validity domain of a machine learning model is limited to the data that was used to train *** based on system states outside that domain,so-called extrapolations,are unreliable and can negatively influence the control *** present a safe operation approach combined with online learning to deal with extrapolation in data-driven model predictive ***,the k-nearest neighbor algorithm is used to detect extrapolation to switch to a robust fallback *** continuously retraining the artificial neural networks during operation,we successively increase the validity domain of the artificial neural networks and the control *** apply the approach to control a building energy system provided by the BOPTEST *** compare controllers based on two data sets,one with extensive system excitation and one with baseline *** system is controlled to a fixed temperature set point in baseline ***,the artificial neural networks trained on this data set tend to extrapolate in other operating *** show that safe operation in combination with online learning significantly improves performance.

关键词： Data-driven model predictive control Online learning Novelty detection Artificial neural networks Building energy systems

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气候变化对天山地区(中亚)冰川和径流的影响

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华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版） 2019年第1期40卷 97-97页

作者：王乐扬 SORG Annina BOLCH Tobias stoffel markus SOLOMINA Olga BENISTON Martin 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院江苏南京210044

气候变化导致的以冰川融水补给为主的径流情势变化,会直接影响淡水供应、灌溉和水电开发。前苏联解体将天山地区(中亚)由相互依赖的共和国转变为独立自治的河流上游国和下游国,导致该地区的水资源分配成为一项非常复杂的任务。因此,有... 详细信息

气候变化导致的以冰川融水补给为主的径流情势变化,会直接影响淡水供应、灌溉和水电开发。前苏联解体将天山地区(中亚)由相互依赖的共和国转变为独立自治的河流上游国和下游国,导致该地区的水资源分配成为一项非常复杂的任务。因此,有关冰川与径流目前和未来的确切信息对该区域的水资源分配至关重要。天山被称为“中亚水塔”,尽管前期已开展了气候变化对该区域冰川和径流的影响研究,然而,到目前为止仍未达成一致认识。

关键词：冰川融水天山地区气候变化径流中亚水资源分配淡水供应水电开发

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Role of coatings and materials of external fixation pins on the rates of pin tract infection:A systematic review and meta-analysis

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World Journal of Orthopedics 2021年第11期12卷 920-930页

作者： Cristhopher stoffel Bruno Eltz Mauro Jose Salles Department of Orthopedic Surgery Instituto de Ortopedia e Traumatologia do Rio Grande do SulPasso Fundo 99010110Rio Grande do SulBrazil Department of Orthopedic Surgery Hospital São FranciscoConcordia 89700-000Santa CatarinaBrazil Musculoskeletal Infection Group Internal Medicine DepartmentSanta Casa de Sao Paulo School of Medical SciencesSao Paulo 01221-020Brazil Musculoskeletal Infection Group Division of Infectious DiseasesEscola Paulista de MedicinaUniversidade Federal de Sao PauloSao Paulo 01221-020Brazil

BACKGROUND Infection at the pin tract is a frequent and feared complication of external fixators(EF).The type of pin material and coatings have been regarded as possibly influencing infection *** the last 20 years,few prospective clinical studies and systematic reviews addressed the role of coated pins on the rate of pin site infection in human clinical *** To assess the EF literature over the past 20 years on the clinical benefits of pins manufactured from varied materials and coating systems and their possible role in pin tract infection *** We performed a systematic review according to the PRISMA and PICOS guidelines using four scientific platforms:PubMed,LiLacs,SciELO,and *** searched the literature for related publications over the past 20 *** A literature search yielded 29 articles,among which seven met the inclusion *** studies compared stainless-steel pins and pins coated with hydroxyapatite(HA),titanium and *** pin tract infection definitions were arbitrary and not standardized among *** studies included a low number of patients in the analysis and used a short follow-up *** metaanalyses were carried out,comparing stainless steel vs silver pins,stainless steel vs HA-coated pins,and titanium vs HA-coated *** of this analysis resulted in statistically significant differences in pin tract infection *** Currently,no clinical evidence supports the advantage of EF pins manufactured with materials other than stainless steel or coated over uncoated pins in reducing the rates of pin tract infections.A standardized definition of pin tract infection in external fixation is still lacking.

关键词： External fixator Pin tract infection Stainless steel pin Coated pin Coating systems Pin site infection

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微生态制剂调控比格幼犬生长性能和肠道菌群的研究

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中国畜牧兽医 2022年第2期49卷 510-520页

作者：王志华贾俊鹏 RADEBE stoffel Matjeke 庾庆华南京农业大学动物医学院南京210018

【目的】研究复合微生态制剂对哺乳期比格幼犬生长性能与肠道菌群结构的影响。【方法】选取12只15日龄比格犬,随机分为对照组和微生态制剂组,每组6只。微生态制剂组幼犬每日灌喂犬用微生态制剂20 mL,对照组幼犬灌喂生理盐水20 mL,于试验... 详细信息

【目的】研究复合微生态制剂对哺乳期比格幼犬生长性能与肠道菌群结构的影响。【方法】选取12只15日龄比格犬,随机分为对照组和微生态制剂组,每组6只。微生态制剂组幼犬每日灌喂犬用微生态制剂20 mL,对照组幼犬灌喂生理盐水20 mL,于试验第0、3、9、12、15、18、21、25、28 d测量体重并计算净增重,第28天采集全血样、血清样和粪样。全血样进行红细胞(RBC)计数和血红蛋白(HGB)浓度测定,血清样检测碱性磷酸酶(AKP)、无机磷(IP)、总胆固醇(TCHO)、甘油三酯(TG)、免疫球蛋白A(IgA)、免疫球蛋白G(IgG)、白介素-1β(IL-1β)、脂多糖(LPS)含量;粪样进行菌群测序,统计Goods coverage指数、Observed species指数和Shannon指数,对样本进行PCoA分析,并统计各样本在门、属、种水平上的物种分布。【结果】与对照组相比,微生态制剂可显著提高幼犬体重(P0.05)。Observed species指数和PCoA分析结果表明,微生态制剂可显著改变幼犬肠道菌群结构(P<0.05)。在门水平上,微生态制剂组幼犬肠道菌群拟杆菌门和放线菌门相对丰度显著降低(P<0.05),梭菌门、酸杆菌门和疣微菌门相对丰度均显著增高(P<0.05);在属水平上,Escherichia-Shigella、霍尔德曼氏菌属、双歧杆菌属和布劳特氏菌属相对丰度均显著降低(P<0.05),梭菌属、链球菌属、梭杆菌属、乳球菌属和片球菌属相对丰度均显著增高(P<0.05)。在种水平上,大肠杆菌和短双歧杆菌相对丰度均显著降低(P<0.05),犬大肠梭菌、格氏乳球菌、Vagococcus teuberi、贝莱斯芽孢杆菌、粪肠球菌和死亡梭杆菌相对丰度均显著增高(P<0.05)。【结论】犬用微生态制剂可显著促进幼犬生长,提高其血氧含量,改变肠道菌群结构,优化肠道菌群组成。

关键词：微生态制剂比格犬生长性能肠道菌群

来源：

维普期刊数据库

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