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On the accumulative contribution of CO_2 emission from China to global climate change

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中国科学：地球科学英文版 2016年第11期59卷 2202-2212页

作者： BAO Ying QIAO FangLi SONG ZhenYa First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration

A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China's CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China's CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries' CO_2 emission and other countries' CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature(SAT), sea surface temperature(SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China's CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.

关键词：积聚的贡献纯贡献气候模型公司 2 排放

Contribution of surface wave-induced vertical mixing to heat content in global upper ocean

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2020年第2期38卷 307-313页

作者： CHEN Siyu QIAO Fangli HUANG Chuanjiang SONG ZhenYa Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100China First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China Key Laboratory of Marine Sciences and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China

Compared with observations,the simulated upper ocean heat content(OHC)determined from climate models shows an underestimation bias.The simulation bias of the average annual water temperature in the upper 300 m is 0.2℃lower than the observational results.The results from our two numerical experiments,using a CMIP5 model,show that the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing can reduce this bias.The enhanced vertical mixing increases the OHC in the global upper ocean(65°S–65°N).Using non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing reduced the disparity by 30%to 0.14℃.The heat content increase is not directly induced by air-sea heat fluxes during the simulation period,but is the legacy of temperature increases in the first 150 years.During this period,additional vertical mixing was initially included in the climate model.The non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing improves the OHC by increasing the air-sea heat fluxes in the first 150 years.This increase in air-sea heat fluxes warms the upper ocean by 0.05–0.06℃.The results show that the incorporation of vertical mixing induced by nonbreaking surface waves in our experiments can improve the simulation of OHC in the global upper ocean.

关键词： surface wave-induced vertical mixing upper ocean heat content air-sea heat fluxes climate model

Effect of increasing Arctic river runoff on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation:a model study

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2017年第8期36卷 59-65页

作者： SHU Qi QIAO Fangli SONG ZhenYa XIAO Bin The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China

An increasing amount of freshwater has been observed to enter the Arctic Ocean from the six largest Eurasian rivers over the past several decades. The increasing trend is projected to continue in the twenty-first century according to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） coupled models. The present study found that water flux from rivers to the Arctic Ocean at the end of the century will be 1.4 times that in 1950 according to CMIP5 projection results under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The effect of increasing Arctic river runoff on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC） was investigated using an ocean-ice coupled model. Results obtained from two numerical experiments show that 100, 150 and 200 years after the start of an increase in the Arctic river runoff at a rate of 0.22%/a, the AMOC will weaken by 0.6 （3%）, 1.2 （7%） and 1.8 （11%） Sv. AMOC weakening is mainly caused by freshwater transported from increasing Arctic river runoff inhibiting the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water （NADW）. As the AMOC weakens, the deep seawater age will become older throughout the Atlantic Basin owing to the increasing of Arctic runoff.

关键词： climate change Arctic river runoff Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The correctness to the spuriously simulated semi-annual cycle of the sea surface temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific

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Science China Earth Sciences 2011年第3期54卷 438-444页

作者： SONG ZhenYa QIAO FangLi WANG ChunZai The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Miami USA

One of the challenges faced by the climate model of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is the spuriously simulated semi-annual cycle of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This model bias has limited the performance of the climate simulation and prediction. Based on the surface wave-circulation coupled theory, an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model was developed, which incorporates the MASNUM (key laboratory of Marine Sciences and Numerical Modeling) wave number spectral model into CCSM3. The new coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model successfully removes the spurious semi-annual cycle simulated by the original CCSM3 and reasonably produces an SST annual cycle with warm and cold phases in April and August, respectively. The correlation between the simulated and observed SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific is improved from 0.66 to 0.93. The ocean surface layer heat budget analysis indicates that the wave-induced vertical mixing is responsible for improving the simulation of the SST seasonal cycle in the equatorial eastern Pacific.

关键词：赤道东太平洋逻辑模拟温度循环海洋表面温度国家重点实验室气候模型海面耦合理论

Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO_2 sink and pH change

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2012年第5期31卷 87-97页

作者： BAO Ying QIAO Fangli SONG ZhenYa College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China

A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios （called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs）. The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） for the Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）. The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a （calculated by carbon） in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current （ACC） area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water （NADW）, and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water （AABW） along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere.

关键词： ocean carbon cycle model air-sea CO 2 flux anthropogenic carbon pH value

High efficient parallel numerical surface wave model based on an irregular quasi-rectangular domain decomposition scheme

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Science China Earth Sciences 2014年第5期57卷 1869-1878页

作者： ZHAO Wei SONG ZhenYa QIAO FangLi YIN XunQiang First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling (MASNUM) State Oceanic Administration

To achieve high parallel efficiency for the global MASNUM surface wave model, the algorithm of an irregular quasirectangular domain decomposition and related serializing of calculating points and data exchanging schemes are developed and conducted, based on the environment of Message Passing Interface(MPI). The new parallel version of the surface wave model is tested for parallel computing on the platform of the Sunway BlueLight supercomputer in the National Supercomputing Center in Jinan. The testing involves four horizontal resolutions, which are 1°×1°,(1/2)°×(1/2)°,(1/4)°×(1/4)°, and(1/8)°×(1/8)°. These tests are performed without data Input/Output(IO) and the maximum amount of processors used in these tests reaches to 131072. The testing results show that the computing speeds of the model with different resolutions are all increased with the increasing of numbers of processors. When the number of processors is four times that of the base processor number, the parallel efficiencies of all resolutions are greater than 80%. When the number of processors is eight times that of the base processor number, the parallel efficiency of tests with resolutions of 1°×1°,(1/2)°×(1/2)° and(1/4)°×(1/4)° is greater than 80%, and it is 62% for the test with a resolution of(1/8)°×(1/8)° using 131072 processors, which is the nearly all processors of Sunway BlueLight. When the processor's number is 24 times that of the base processor number, the parallel efficiencies for tests with resolutions of 1°×1°,(1/2)°×(1/2)°, and(1/4)°×(1/4)° are 72%, 62%, and 38%, respectively. The speedup and parallel efficiency indicate that the irregular quasi-rectangular domain decomposition and serialization schemes lead to high parallel efficiency and good scalability for a global numerical wave model.

关键词：海浪数值模式并行效率区域分解矩形波模表面分辨率测试消息传递接口

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A comparison of two global ocean-ice coupled models with different horizontal resolutions

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2013年第8期32卷 1-11页

作者： SHU Qi QIAO Fangli SONG ZhenYa YIN Xunqiang College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration

A global eddy-permitting ocean-ice coupled model with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° by 0.25° is estab- lished on the basis of Modular Ocean Model version 4 （MOM4） and Sea Ice Simulator （SIS）. Simulation results are compared with those of an intermediate resolution ocean-ice coupled model with a horizontal resolution of about 1° by 1°. The results show that the simulated ocean temperature, ocean current and sea ice concentration from the eddy-permitting model are better than those from the intermediate resolu- tion model. However, both the two models have the common problem of ocean general circulation models （OGCMs） that the majority of the simulated summer sea surface temperature （SST） is too warm while the majority of the simulated subsurface summer temperature is too cold. Further numerical experiments show that this problem can be alleviated by incorporating the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing into the vertical mixing scheme for both eddy-permitting and intermediate resolution models.

关键词： eddy-permitting model intermediate resolution model non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing

Simulations and Projections of Winter Sea Ice in the Barents Sea by CMIP6 Climate Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第12期40卷 2318-2330页

作者： Rongrong PAN Qi SHU zhenya song Shizhu WANG Yan HE Fangli QIAO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao 266061China

Dramatic changes in the sea ice characteristics in the Barents Sea have potential consequences for the weather and climate systems of mid-latitude continents,Arctic ecosystems,and fisheries,as well as Arctic maritime navigation.Simulations and projections of winter sea ice in the Barents Sea based on the latest 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)are investigated in this study.Results show that most CMIP6 models overestimate winter sea ice in the Barents Sea and underestimate its decreasing trend.The discrepancy is mainly attributed to the simulation bias towards an overly weak ocean heat transport through the Barents Sea Opening and the underestimation of its increasing trend.The methods of observation-based model selection and emergent constraint were used to project future winter sea ice changes in the Barents Sea.Projections indicate that sea ice in the Barents Sea will continue to decline in a warming climate and that a winter ice-free Barents Sea will occur for the first time during 2042-2089 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585(SSP5-8.5).Even in the observation-based selected models,the sensitivity of winter sea ice in the Barents Sea to global warming is weaker than observed,indicating that a winter ice-free Barents Sea might occur earlier than projected by the CMIP6 simulations.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Barents Sea ocean heat transport sea ice projection CMIP6

Link between the Barents Oscillation and Recent Boreal Winter Cooling over the Asian Midlatitudes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第1期35卷 127-132页

作者： Qi SHU Fangli QIAO zhenya song Yajuan song First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration

The link between boreal winter cooling over the midlatitudes of Asia and the Barents Oscillation(BO) since the late 1980s is discussed in this study, based on five datasets. Results indicate that there is a large-scale boreal winter cooling during 1990–2015 over the Asian midlatitudes, and that it is a part of the decadal oscillations of long-term surface air temperature(SAT)anomalies. The SAT anomalies over the Asian midlatitudes are significantly correlated with the BO in boreal winter. When the BO is in its positive phase, anomalously high sea level pressure over the Barents region, with a clockwise wind anomaly,causes cold air from the high latitudes to move over the midlatitudes of Asia, resulting in anomalous cold conditions in that region. Therefore, the recent increasing trend of the BO has contributed to recent winter cooling over the Asian midlatitudes.

关键词： climate change Barents Oscillation winter cooling