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Predictability of Ensemble Forecasting Estimated Using the Kullback–Leibler Divergence in the Lorenz Model

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第8期36卷 837-846页

作者： ruiqiang DING Baojia LIU Bin GU Jianping LI Xuan LI State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Institute of Space Weather School of Math and StatisticsNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China College of Physics and Optoelectronic Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

A new method to quantify the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting is presented using the Kullback–Leibler(KL)divergence(also called the relative entropy), which provides a measure of the difference between the probability distributions of ensemble forecasts and local reference(true) states. The KL divergence is applicable to a non-normal distribution of ensemble forecasts, which is a substantial improvement over the previous method using the ensemble spread. An example from the three-variable Lorenz model illustrates the effectiveness of the KL divergence, which can effectively quantify the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting. On this basis, the KL divergence is used to investigate the dependence of the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting on the initial states and the magnitude of initial errors. The local predictability limit of ensemble forecasting varies considerably with the initial states, as well as with the magnitude of initial errors. Further research is needed to examine the real-world applications of the KL divergence in measuring the predictability of ensemble weather forecasts.

关键词： predictability ensemble forecasting Kullback–Leibler divergence

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The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第3期36卷 271-278,339页

作者： Jie FENG Jianping LI Jing ZHANG Deqiang LIU ruiqiang DING School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS) Beijing Normal University Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere GSD/ESRL/OAR/NOAA Fujian Meteorological Observatory Wuyishan National Park Meteorological Observatory State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology

It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2^(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.

关键词： attractor radius ensemble forecasting ensemble mean forecast error saturation

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A Facile Synthesis of Benzo[h]quinolines via Silica-TsOH-P2O5 Promoted Condensation of 1-Naphthylamines with 1,3-Diketones under Solvent Free Conditions

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Chinese Journal of Chemistry 2017年第10期35卷 1595-1600页

作者： Chuanlei Zhu ruiqiang Guo Zhe Sheng Yanzhe Li Changhu Chu School of Pharmacy Shanghai Key Laboratory of New Drug Design East China University of Science and Technology Shanghai 200237 China

A facile synthesis of benzo[h]quinolines has been developed via improved Combes reaction. A combination of silica gel, p-toluenesulfonic acid and phosphorus pentoxide was utilized to promote the condensation of 1-naphthylamines with 1,3-diketones under solvent free conditions. In this case, silica gel was used as reaction media, p-toluenesulfonic acid and phosphorus pentoxide were acted as catalyst and dehydrating agent, respectively.

关键词： silica-TsOH-P2O5 benzo[h]quinoline catalysis synthesis solvent free

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Relationships between the Extratropical ENSO Precursor and Leading Modes of Atmospheric Variability in the Southern Hemisphere

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第3期34卷 360-370页

作者： Jianhuang QIN ruiqiang DING Zhiwei WU Jianping LI Sen ZHAO Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and Earth System Modeling Center Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal University

Previous studies suggest that the atmospheric precursor of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere （SH） might trigger a quadrapole sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） in the South Pacific and subsequently influence the following ENSO. Such a quadrapole SSTA is referred to as the South Pacific quadrapole （SPQ）. The present study investigated the relationships between the atmospheric precursor signal of ENSO and leading modes of atmospheric variability in the extratropical SH [including the SH annular mode （SAM）, the first Pacific-South America （PSA1） mode, and the second Pacific-South America （PSA2） mode]. The results showed that the atmospheric precursor signal in the extratropical SH basically exhibits a barotropic wavenumber-3 structure over the South Pacific and is significantly correlated with the SAM and the PSA2 mode during austral summer. Nevertheless, only the PSA2 mode was found to be a precursor for the following ENSO. It leads the SPQ-like SSTA by around one month, while the SAM and the PSA1 mode do not show any obvious linkage with either ENSO or the SPQ. This suggests that the PSA2 mode may provide a bridge between the preceding circulation anomalies over the extratropical SH and the following ENSO through the SPQ-like SSTA.

关键词： Pacific-South America atmospheric variability ENSO South Pacific quadrapole

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Estimating the Predictability Limit of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using Observational Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第12期35卷 1491-1504页

作者： Quanjia ZHONG Lifeng ZHANG Jianping LI ruiqiang DING Jie FENG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense Technology College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal University School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma

In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning *** results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific(WNP)basin is about 102 h,and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 *** predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-,medium-,and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h,120 h,and 132 h,*** predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location,lifetime,and intensity,and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely *** more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP(EWNP),whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP(WWNP)and the South China Sea(SCS).The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs,which are generated mainly in the EWNP,have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and ***,the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently *** work is needed,employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks.

关键词： predictability tropical cyclone tracks nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent

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Dominant SST Mode in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics and Its Influence on Atmospheric Circulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第7期35卷 881-895页

作者： Fei ZHENG Jianping LI Fred KUCHARSKI ruiqiang DING Ting LIU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Earth System Physics Section Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research Department of MeteorologyKing Abdulaziz University Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of Oceanography

The variability in the Southern Ocean（SO） sea surface temperature（SST） has drawn increased attention due to its unique physical features; therefore, the temporal characteristics of the SO SST anomalies（SSTA） and their influence on extratropical atmospheric circulation are addressed in this study. Results from empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the principal mode of the SO SSTA exhibits a dipole-like structure, suggesting a negative correlation between the SSTA in the middle and high latitudes, which is referred to as the SO Dipole（SOD） in this study. The SOD features strong zonal symmetry, and could reflect more than 50% of total zonal-mean SSTA variability. We find that stronger（weaker） Subantarctic and Antarctic polar fronts are related to the positive（negative） phases of the SOD index, as well as the primary variability of the large-scale SO SSTA meridional gradient. During December–January–February, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet shift toward the Antarctic due to changes in the SSTA that could be associated with a positive phase of the SOD, and are also accompanied by a poleward shift of the subtropical jet. During June–July–August, in association with a positive SOD, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet are strengthened, accompanied by a strengthened subtropical jet. These seasonal differences are linked to the differences in the configuration of the polar jet and the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemisphere.

关键词： extratropical sea surface temperature air–sea interaction Southern Annular Mode

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Modeling the impact of process and operation variations on the soft error rate of digital circuits

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Science China(Information Sciences) 2017年第12期60卷 286-288页

作者： ruiqiang SONG Shuming CHEN Bin LIANG Yaqing CHI Jianjun CHEN College of Computer National University of Defense Technology

Dear editor,Process or operation variations are important factors in the soft error rate(SER)of integrated circuits[1,2].During manufacturing or other operations,inevitable process or operation variations lead to changes in the electrical parameters of transistors,which can result in sizeable shifts in the SER of integrated circuits[3].Some studies have reported that the hardness of test chips can vary by more than 20%as a result of process or operation variations[4].Therefore,it is vital to account

关键词： Modeling the impact of process and operation variations on the soft error rate of digital circuits

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Evaluation of the performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating the South Pacific Quadrupole-ENSO relationship

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第4期14卷 22-28页

作者： Zhenchao Wang Lin Han ruiqiang Ding Jianping Li School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(FDOMES) Key Laboratory of Physical OceanographyInstitute for Advanced Ocean StudiesOcean University of ChinaQingdaoChina Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdaoChina

The South Pacific Quadrupole(SPQ) is the extratropical South Pacific’s second principal sea surface temperature *** observational studies have shown that the SPQ promotes the onset of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The present study evaluates and compares simulations of the SPQ-ENSO relationship by 20 climate models from CMIP6 and their corresponding 20 previous models from *** is found that 16 of the20 pairs of models are able to consistently reproduce the spatial pattern of the *** terms of simulating the SPQ-ENSO relationship,9 of the 16 CMIP6 models show significant improvement over their previous CMIP5 *** multi-model ensemble(MME) of these 16 CMIP6 models simulates the SPQ-ENSO connection more realistically than the CMIP5 *** analysis shows that the performance of the model simulations in reproducing the SPQ-ENSO relationship is strongly dependent on their ability to simulate the SPQ-related surface air-sea coupling processes over the southwestern and southeastern South Pacific,as well as the response of the SPQ-related equatorial subsurface ocean temperature *** improvement of the CMIP6 models in simulating these two processes is responsible for the improved performance of the CMIP6 models over their CMIP5 counterparts in simulating the SPQ-ENSO relationship.

关键词： South Pacific quadrupole ENSO CMIP5 and CMIP6 models Extratropical atmospheric forcing

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Ferroelectric order in hybrid organic-inorganic perovskite NH_(4)PbI_(3) with non-polar molecules and small tolerance factor

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npj Computational Materials 2023年第1期9卷 1726-1731页

作者： Jia-Bin Li Zhi-Kang Jiang Rui Wang Jin-Zhu Zhao ruiqiang Wang Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Quantum Engineering and Quantum Materials School of Physics and Telecommunication EngineeringSouth China Normal UniversityGuangzhou 510006PR China Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory of Quantum Matter South China Normal UniversityGuangzhou 510006PR China Foshan(Southern China)Institute for New Materials Foshan 528300PR China Institute for Structure and Function and Department of Physics Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400044PR China Center of Quantum Materials and Devices Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400044PR China Center for Computational Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055PR China

The appropriate theoretical picture of describing the ferroelectric order in hybrid organic-inorganic perovskite remains attractive and under intense *** rationalize the interaction between organic molecule sublattice and inorganic frame from *** systematic investigations on the NH_(4)PbI_(3),we show that the non-polar octahedral rotation dominates the process of stabilizing of the lattice with small value of tolerance *** direct coupling between molecules is *** the help of hydrogen bonding to the inorganic cage,molecule sublattice will eventually build long-range ferroelectric or anti-ferroelectric order under the constrain of the inorganic cage and further polarize the inorganic frame as the *** results also clarify that to build ferroelectricity the polar molecule is helpful but not *** the general rule for hybrid organic-inorganic perovskite,we identified the fundamental mechanism that can be considered as a critical pre-step forward to further controlling the related physics in functional materials.

关键词： inorganic ferroelectric polar

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Characterization of a new mutant allele of the Arabidopsis Flowering Locus D (FLD) gene that controls theflowering time by repressing FLC

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第23期50卷 2701-2706页

作者： CHEN ruiqiang ZHANG Suzhi SUN Shulan CHANG Jianhong ZUO Jianru Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Graduate School Chinese Acadamy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Flowering in higher plants is controlled by both the internal and environmental cues. In Arabidopsis, several major genetic loci have been defined as the key switches to control flowering. The Flowering Locus C (FLC) gene has been shown in the autonomous pathway to inhibit the vege-tative-to-reproductive transition. FLC appears to be re-pressed by Flowering Locus D (FLD), which encodes a com-ponent of the histone deacetylase complex. Here we report the identification and characterization of a new mutant allele fld-5. Genetic analysis indicates that fld-5 (in the Was-silewskija background) is allelic to the previously character-ized fld-3 and fld-4 (in the Colombia-0 background). Genetic and molecular analyses reveal that fld-5 carries a frame-shift mutation, resulting in a premature termination of the FLD open reading frame. The FLC expression is remarkably in-creased in fld-5, which presumably attributes to the ex-tremely delayed flowering phenotype of the mutant.

关键词：阿布属开花基因位点突变等位基因植物遗传学开花时间控制

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