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Environmental Conditions Conducive to the Formation of Multiple Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 2027-2042页

作者： Yining GU ruifen zhan Xiaomeng LI Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology Institute of Desert and Meteorology China Meteorological Administration

There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs). This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North Pacific. Based on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020, four distinct circulation patterns are identified: the monsoon trough(MT) pattern, accounting for 40.3% of occurrences, the confluence zone(CON) pattern at 26.2%, the easterly wave(EW) pattern at 17.8%, and the monsoon gyre(MG) pattern at 15.7%. The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough, with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its flanks. The CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high,the South Asian high, and the monsoon trough, with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows converge. The EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows, with MTCs developing along the easterly wave train. MTCs in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows. A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity, while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other patterns. The meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy, acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.

关键词： barotropic energy conversion circulation pattern monsoon trough multiple tropical cyclones western North Pacific

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A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1391-1402页

作者： Yitian ZHOU ruifen zhan Yuqing WANG Peiyan CHEN Zhemin TAN Zhipeng XIE Xiuwen NIE Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonolulu 96822USA Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of the Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China School of Computer Science Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes ***,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural *** time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical *** LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–*** transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–*** predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC *** new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction *** intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h *** at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

关键词： tropical cyclones western North Pacific intensity prediction EBDS LSTM

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Impact of the Western Pacific Tropical Easterly Jet on Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 235-248页

作者： ruifen zhan Yuqing WANG Yihui DING Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research InstituteZhuhai 519055China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaiiHI 96822USA National Climate Center and Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Although it is well known that the tropical easterly jet(TEJ)has a significant impact on summer weather and climate over India and Africa,whether the TEJ exerts an important impact on tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)remains *** this study,we examined the impact of the TEJ on the interannual variability of TC genesis frequency over the WNP in the TC season(June-September)during *** results show a significant positive correlation between TC genesis frequency over the WNP and the jet intensity in the entrance region of the TEJ over the tropical western Pacific(in brief WP_TEJ),with a correlation coefficient as high as *** intensified WP_TEJ results in strong ageostrophic northerly winds in the entrance region and thus upper-level divergence to the north of the jet axis over the main TC genesis region in the *** would lead to an increase in upward motion in the troposphere with enhanced low-level convergence,which are the most important factors to the increases in low-level vorticity,mid-level humidity and low-level eddy kinetic energy,and the decreases in sea level pressure and vertical wind shear in the *** these changes are favorable for TC genesis over the WNP and vice *** analyses indicate that the interannual variability of the WP_TEJ intensity is likely to be linked to the local diabatic heating over the Indian Ocean-western Pacific and the central Pacific El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation.

关键词： tropical cyclones genesis frequency tropical easterly jet western North Pacific

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Role of ENSO in the interannual relationship between Tibetan Plateau winter snow cover and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency

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Science China Earth Sciences 2016年第10期59卷 2009-2021页

作者： zhan ruifen DING YiHui WU LiGuang LEI XiaoTu Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China National Climate Center and Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disastersand Pacific Typhoon Research CenterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP） in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993-2012 and is considerably weak during 1976-1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993-2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than （lower than） normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold （warm） phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNE Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976-1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993-2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.

关键词： Western North Pacific Tropical cyclone Snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau ENSO Interdecadal shift

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Statistical characteristics of the double ridges of subtropical high in the Northern Hemisphere

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第20期50卷 2336-2341页

作者： zhan ruifen LI Jianping HE Jinhai State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100039 China

The generality and some climatological charac- teristics of the double ridge systems of subtropical high (SH) are investigated statistically by using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1958 to 1998. The results show that the SH double-ridge event is a common phenomenon in the Northern Hemisphere, with the distinct seasonal and re- gional features, that is, the majority of SH double-ridge geneses concentrate over the eastern North India Ocean- western North Pacific as well as the central North Pacific in the period from mid-July to mid-September. Especially over the western North Pacific subtropics, the SH double-ridge events are extremely active. It is found that the life cycle of most double-ridge events of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is shorter but some still last longer. The WPSH dou- ble-ridge events occur most frequently from July to Septem- ber, while there is a paucity of occurrences during Novem- ber-March. Also, it is shown that the WPSH double-ridge events have a strong interannual variation with a certain periodicity which possesses a remarkably abrupt change in the mid-1970s. Additionally, the relationship between the WPSH double ridges and the meridional movement of WPSH is discussed.

关键词：亚热带高度双脊系统回归线北半球气候学

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A Logistic-growth-equation-based Intensity Prediction Scheme for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第10期38卷 1750-1762页

作者： Yanchen ZHOU Jiuwei ZHAO ruifen zhan Peiyan CHEN Zhiwei WU Lan WANG Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Fuzhou 350001China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity remains a challenge due to the complex physical processes involved in TC intensity changes.A seven-day TC intensity prediction scheme based on the logistic growth equation(LGE)for the western North Pacific(WNP)has been developed using the observed and reanalysis *** the LGE,TC intensity change is determined by a growth term and a decay *** two terms are comprised of four free parameters which include a time-dependent growth rate,a maximum potential intensity(MPI),and two *** 33 years of training samples,optimal predictors are selected first,and then the two constants are determined based on the least square method,forcing the regressed growth rate from the optimal predictors to be as close to the observed as *** estimation of the growth rate is further refined based on a step-wise regression(SWR)method and a machine learning(ML)method for the period 1982−*** the LGE-based scheme,a total of 80 TCs during 2015−17 are used to make independent *** show that the root mean square errors of the LGE-based scheme are much smaller than those of the official intensity forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),especially for TCs in the coastal regions of East ***,the scheme based on ML demonstrates better forecast skill than that based on *** new prediction scheme offers strong potential for both improving the forecasts for rapid intensification and weakening of TCs as well as for extending the 5-day forecasts currently issued by the CMA to 7-day forecasts.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity prediction western North Pacific logistic growth equation

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2014年第3期3卷 131-144页

作者： MING YING LINA BAI ruifen zhan Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration

This paper presents a review of tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific in 2013 and examines the main factors that influenced the pattern of activity. The 2013 season was characterized by an abovenormal genesis number of named storms, near-normal total occurrence frequency, and near-normal accumulated cyclone energy. Both the tropical SSTs in the Pacific sector and the East Asian summer monsoon contributed to favorable conditions for active cyclogenesis. The monsoon circulation also controlled the TC track patterns. Three prevailing tracks were identified, along with four stages of track pattern transition that were characterized by different combinations of prevailing tracks. The different track patterns were associated with variations in the regional circulation, which in turn were closely related to the seasonal variation of the monsoon. The regional circulation was also influenced by the intra-seasonal oscillation. In particular, the quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) was important during the early and late seasons, while the 30–60 day oscillation was significant in the active season from late July to early October. The QBWO mainly influenced the circulation in the subtropics and the midlatitudes, while the 30–60 day oscillation was related to the Pacific–Japan pattern, variation in the subtropical high, and tropical cyclonic circulation during the early, main, and late seasons, respectively.

关键词： tropical cyclone activity East Asian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation

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ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2012

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2013年第1期2卷 35-44页

作者： ruifen zhan MING YING PEIYAN CHEN Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration

Tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP) in 2012 is summarized and the associated large-scale environmental conditions are discussed. In total 25 named storms formed in the WNP basin in 2012, among them were 3 tropical storms(TSs), 7 severe TSs, 4 typhoons, 6 severe typhoons, and 5 super typhoons. TC activity was close to a 30-year average but above the average active level of recent years since 2005. Total number of TCs formed in the South China Sea(SCS) in 2012 was below normal, with only 40% of the climatological mean. Overall, TC genesis over the WNP was characterized by four active periods. During each period TCs took distinct prevailing tracks. The periodic characteristics in TC genesis were attributed to the activity of the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO), while those in TC tracks were related to the large-scale dynamical and thermodynamic conditions induced by the enhanced WNP monsoon activity and the weak El Ni?o conditions.

关键词： Tropical cyclone western North Pacific(WNP)

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SEASONAL FORECASTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC:A REVIEW

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2012年第3期1卷 307-324页

作者： ruifen zhan YUQING WANG MING YING Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina International Pacifi c Research Center and Department of Meteorology School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaiiU.S.A.

The attempt of this article is to provide a literature review on recent development and progress in seasonal forecasts for tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Since the predictability of seasonal TC activity mainly comes from the slowly-evolving sea surface temperature(SST) conditions and the large-scale atmospheric circulation teleconnection patterns, our current understanding on the relationships between the interannual TC variability and tropical SST forcing and variations of various climate modes is first reviewed. It serves as the scientific basis and gives us ideas how predictable the seasonal TC activity is. The main body of the article focuses on an overview of the forecast approaches and methodologies, including statistical and dynamical models and their combination, currently used in seasonal forecasts for TCs over the WNP, and an initial assessment of their prediction skills in the past decade or so. Some outstanding issues, including the intrinsic limitation of predictability due to various uncertainties and the areas for future developments, are also briefly discussed. It is expected that the quality of the scientifically based seasonal TC forecasts would be steadily improved with the advancement in the forecast techniques and the driving of society needs.

关键词： SEASONAL FORECASTS TROPICAL CYCLONE

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2009年西北太平洋热带气旋定位和业务预报精度评定

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气象 2010年第10期36卷 114-121页

作者：占瑞芬汤杰余晖中国气象局上海台风研究所中国气象局上海台风预报技术重点开放实验室上海200030

依据《台风业务和服务规定》分析2009年热带气旋(TC)业务定位和业务预报精度,主要包括:6个方法的定位精度,12个综合预报方法、3个客观预报方法和6个数值预报方法的路径预报精度,以及4个方法的强度(近中心最大风速,下同)预报精度评定。... 详细信息

依据《台风业务和服务规定》分析2009年热带气旋(TC)业务定位和业务预报精度,主要包括:6个方法的定位精度,12个综合预报方法、3个客观预报方法和6个数值预报方法的路径预报精度,以及4个方法的强度(近中心最大风速,下同)预报精度评定。结果表明:各方法的平均定位误差均小于21 km,平均17.1 km,较2008年有所改进。国内综合预报方法的24小时、48小时和72小时路径预报的平均距离误差分别为115.8 km、217.5 km和357.1 km,与2008年相比有所偏大;客观预报方法略优于综合预报方法,24小时和48小时预报的平均距离误差分别为113.0 km和211.4 km;4个官方综合预报方法比较发现,中央气象台对我国近海海域的TC路径预报具有明显优势。强度预报仍然以统计方法为主,2009年24小时和48小时近中心最大风速预报的平均误差分别为4.90 m·s^(-1)和7.43 m·s^(-1),相比近10年的平均水平,预报性能没有明显提高。

关键词：热带气旋定位预报精度路径误差强度误差

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