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Integrated Assessment of Natural Hazards, Including Climate Change’s Influences, for Cultural Heritage Sites: The Case of the Historic Centre of Rethymno in Greece

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2019年第3期10卷 343-361页

作者： Mohammad Ravankhah rosmarie de wit Athanasios V.Argyriou Angelos Chliaoutakis Maria Joao Revez Joern Birkmann Maja Zuvela-Aloise Apostolos Sarris Anastasia Tzigounaki Kostas Giapitsoglou Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning(IREUS-Institut fur Raumordnung und Entwicklungsplanung) University of Stuttgart70174 StuttgartGermany Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics(ZAMG-Zentralanstalt fur Meteorologie und Geodynamik) 1190 ViennaAustria GeoSat ReSeArch Lab IMS-ORTH(Geophysical-SatelliteRemote Sensing and Archaeoenvironment LabInstitute for Mediterranean Studies-Foundation for Research and TechnologyHellas)74100 RethymnoGreece Nova Conservacao S.A.1200-872LisbonPortugal The Archaeological Research Unit Department of Historyand ArchaeologyUniversity of Cyprus1678 NicosiaCyprus Ephorate of Antiquities of Rethymno 74100 RethymnoGreece

within the framework of disaster risk management, this article proposes an interdisciplinary method for the analysis of multiple natural hazards, including climate change’s influences, in the context of cultural heritage. A taxonomy of natural hazards applicable to cultural heritage was developed based on the existing theoretical and conceptual frameworks. Sudden-onset hazards, such as earthquakes and floods, and slow-onset hazards, such as wetting–drying cycles and biological contamination, were incorporated into the hazard assessment procedure. Future alteration of conditions due to climate change, such as change in heat waves’ duration, was also taken into account. The proposed hazard assessment framework was applied to the case of the Historic Centre of Rethymno, a city on the northern coast of the island of Crete in Greece,to identify, analyze, and prioritize the hazards that have the potential to cause damage to the center’s historic structures. The assessment procedure includes climate model projections, GIS spatial modeling and mapping, and finally a hazard analysis matrix to enable the sharing of a better understanding of multiple hazards with the stakeholders.The results can facilitate decision making by providing the vulnerability and risk analysis with the nature and spatial distribution of the significant hazards within the study area and its setting.

关键词： Climate change analysis Crete Cultural heritage protection Greece Hazard assessment Historic centre of Rethymno Risk assessment

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