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Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration in the Brazilian Earth System Model Simulations

Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第9期11卷 1-19页

作者： Fernanda Casagrande Elisângela Finotti ronald buss de souza Regiane Moura Noeli Franchi Leonardo Earth System Numerical Modeling Division (DIMNT) National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista Brazil School of Meteorology Santa Maria Federal University (UFSM) Santa Maria Brazil Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN) S&#227o Paulo Brazil

Sea ice is an important and complex component of the Earth’s system, acting as both an indicator and an amplifier of climate change. Here, we investigated the ability of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5) and four state-of-the-art climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Version 5 (CMIP5) to represent the Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) seasonal cycle. We validated the sea ice model’s performance using satellite data from 1980 to 2005 and calculated the skill and RMSE of each model. BESM-OA2.5 results for melt-freeze transitions in the Southern Ocean are consistent with CMIP5 models and satellite data. In February, when the sea ice reaches its annual minimum, the BESM-OA2.5 has the best fit among the models. However, in September, when the Antarctic sea ice reaches its annual maximum, the SIC simulated by BESM-OA2.5 indicated the largest area covered by ice compared to satellite, particularly on the Polar Front. Similar results were found in the CMIP5 models evaluated here. We suggest that the large bias simulated in the Polar Front is related to the inability of the sea ice model to represent the complex ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. The subject is considered a hot topic in climate change studies and lacks conclusive answers.

关键词： Southern Ocean Climate Models Satellite CMIP5 Simulations Climate Validation

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Arctic Sea Ice: decadal Simulations and Future Scenarios Using BESM-OA

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2016年第2期6卷 351-366页

作者： Fernanda Casagrande Paulo Nobre ronald buss de souza Andre Lanfer Marquez Etienne Tourigny Vinicius Capistrano Raquel Leite Mello National Institute for Space Research Earth System Science Centre S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil National Institute for Space Research Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research Cachoeira Paulista Brazil National Institute for Space Research Southern Center for Space Research Santa Maria Brazil

Important international reports and a significant number of scientific publications have reported on the abrupt decline of Arctic sea ice and its impact on the Global Climate System. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of the newly implemented Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA) to represent Arctic sea ice and sensitivity to CO2 forcing, using decadal simulations (1980-2012) and future scenarios (2006-2100). We validated our results with satellite observations and compared them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the same numerical experiment. BESM results for the seasonal cycle are consistent with CMIP5 models and observations. However, almost all models tend to overestimate sea ice extent in March compared to observations. The correct evaluation of minimum record of sea ice, in terms of time, spatial and area remains a limitation in Coupled Global Climate Models. Looking to spatial patterns, we found a systematic model error in September sea ice cover between the Beaufort Sea and East Siberia for most models. Future scenarios show a decrease in sea ice extent in response to an increase in radiative forcing for all models. From the year 2045 onwards, all models show a dramatic shrinking in sea ice and ice free conditions at the end of the melting season. The projected future sea ice loss is explained by the combined effects of the amplified warming in northern hemisphere high latitudes and feedbacks processes.

关键词： Arctic Sea Ice Climate Models Brazilian Earth System Model

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