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On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques

Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 258-272页

作者： Janyce Eunice Gnanvi KolawoléValère Salako Gaëtan Brezesky Kotanmi romain glèlèkakaïphd laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières Universitéd’Abomey-Calavi04 BP 1525CotonouBenin

Since the emergence of the novel 2019 coronavirus pandemic in December 2019(COVID-19),numerous modellers have used diverse techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease,predict its future course and determine the impact of different control *** this study,we conducted a global systematic literature review to summarize trends in the modelling techniques used for Covid-19 from January 1st,2020 to November 30th,*** further examined the accuracy and precision of predictions by comparing predicted and observed values for cumulative cases and deaths as well as uncertainties of these *** an initial 4311 peer-reviewed articles and preprints found with our defined keywords,242 were fully *** studies were done on Asian(78.93%)and European(59.09%)*** of them used compartmental models(namely SIR and SEIR)(46.1%)and statistical models(growth models and time series)(31.8%)while few used artificial intelligence(6.7%),Bayesian approach(4.7%),Network models(2.3%)and Agent-based models(1.3%).For the number of cumulative cases,the ratio of the predicted over the observed values and the ratio of the amplitude of confidence interval(CI)or credibility interval(CrI)of predictions and the central value were on average larger than 1 indicating cases of inaccurate and imprecise predictions,and large variation across *** was no clear difference among models used for these two *** 75%of predictions that provided CI or CrI,observed values fall within the 95%CI or CrI of the cumulative cases *** 3.7%of the studies predicted the cumulative number of *** 70%of the predictions,the ratio of predicted over observed cumulative deaths was less or close to ***,the Bayesian model made predictions closer to reality than classical statistical models,although these differences are only suggestive due to the small number of predictions within our dataset(9 in total).In addition,we found a significant neg

关键词： Predictions Accuracy Precision SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Ratio

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In silico screening for As/Se-free ovonic threshold switching materials

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npj Computational Materials 2023年第1期9卷 1359-1366页

作者： Sergiu Clima Daisuke Matsubayashi Taras Ravsher Daniele Garbin romain Delhougne Gouri Sankar Kar Geoffrey Pourtois imec Kapeldreef 75B-3001 LeuvenBelgium Device Technology Research&Development Center Future Memory Development DepartmentKIOXIA CorporationShin-sugita-cho 8Isogo-kuYokohamaJapan KU leuven Celestijnenlaan 200DB-3001 LeuvenBelgium

Restricted use of hazardous environmental chemicals is one important challenge that the semiconductor industry needs to face to improve its *** threshold switching(OTS)ternary compound materials used in memory selector devices contain As and *** these elements out of these materials requires significant research *** facilitate this process,we performed systematic material screening for As/Se-free ternary materials,based on ab-initio *** limit the large amount of possible chemical compositions to fewer promising candidates,we used physics-based material parameter filters like material stability,electronic properties,or change in *** OTS gauge concept is introduced as a computed parameter to estimate the probability of a material to show an OTS *** a result,we identified 35 As/Se-free ternary alloy compositions for stand-alone OTS memory applications,as well as 12 compositions for RRAM selector *** work aims seeding the development of As/Se-free OTS materials.

关键词： alloy ternary free

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Ionic Species Affect the Self-Propulsion of Urease-Powered Micromotors

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Research 2020年第1期2020卷 349-362页

作者： Xavier Arque Xavier Andres Rafael Mestre Bernard Ciraulo Jaime Ortega Arroyo romain Quidant Tania Patino Samuel Sanchez Institute for Bioengineering of Catalonia(IBEC) The Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology(BIST)Baldiri i Reixac 10-1208028 BarcelonaSpain Institute of Photonic Sciences(ICFO) The Barcelona Institute of Science and TechnologyCarl Friedrich Gauss 308860 CastelldefelsBarcelonaSpain InstitucióCatalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats(ICREA) Pg.Lluís Companys 2308010 BarcelonaSpain Chemistry Department University of RomeTor VergataVia della Ricerca Scientifica00133 RomeItaly

Enzyme-powered motors self-propel through the catalysis of in situ bioavailable fuels,which makes them excellent candidates for biomedical ***,fundamental issues like their motion in biological fluids and the understanding of the propulsion mechanism are critical aspects to be tackled before a future application in ***,we investigated the physicochemical effects of ionic species on the self-propulsion of urease-powered *** showed that the presence of PBS,NaOH,NaCl,and HEPES reduced self-propulsion of urease-powered micromotors pointing towards iondependent mechanisms of *** studied the 3D motion of urease micromotors using digital holographic microscopy to rule out any motor-surface interaction as the cause of motion decay when salts are present in the *** order to protect and minimize the negative effect of ionic species on micromotors’performance,we coated the motors with methoxypolyethylene glycol amine(mPEG)showing higher speed compared to noncoated motors at intermediate ionic *** results provide new insights into the mechanism of urease-powered micromotors,study the effect of ionic media,and contribute with potential solutions to mitigate the reduction of mobility of enzyme-powered micromotors.

关键词： holographic salts catalysis

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