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Meteorological Drought Detection and Forecast Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Univariate Distribution Models: Case Study of Bamako, Mali

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第7期11卷 30-55页

作者： Alikalifa Sanogo Prince Appiah Owusu roland songotu kabange Bakary Issa Djire Racheal Fosu Donkoh Nasser Dia Department of Civil Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Technology Kumasi Technical University Kumasi Ghana Department of Mathematical Sciences Clark Atlanta University Atlanta USA

As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study therefore sought to investigate the rainfall variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in the study area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I and Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought variables (severity and duration) for future planning and management. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that based on 12-month SPI, Bamako experienced two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) and another in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). Drought years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI for annual totals. The result further indicated that based on the goodness of fit test, the P3 distribution represents the best fitted distribution to both drought severity and duration over Bamako. Bamako is expected to experience several severe severities with higher and shorter duration in the future. Severities with 1, 2, 6, and 10-month duration had return periods ranged from 2.4 to 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods had 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, and 49.14 severities, respectively, and durations associated to these severities were 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, and 48.2 months, resp

关键词： Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Rainfall Variability Univariate Proba-bility Distribution Drought Bamako

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Investigation into Recent Temperature and Rainfall Trends in Mali Using Mann-Kendall Trend Test: Case Study of Bamako

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第3期11卷 155-172页

作者： Alikalifa Sanogo roland songotu kabange Prince Appiah Owusu Bakary Issa Djire Racheal Fosu Donkoh Nasser Dia Department of Civil Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Technology Kumasi Technical University Kumasi Ghana Department of Mathematical Sciences Clark Atlanta University Atlanta USA

Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is considered as one of the vulnerable regions to climate change, and also encountered the challenges of climatic shocks such as flood and drought. This research therefore sought to investigate climate change effects on hydrological events and trends in Sahelian rainfall intensity using Bamako (Mali) as a case study from 1991 to 2020, as limited data availability did not allow an extended period of study. Monthly observed data provided by MALI-METEO was used to validate daily rainfalls data from African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) satellite-based rainfall product on monthly basis. The validated model performance used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBAIS) and gave results of 0.904 and 1.0506 respectively. Trends in annual maximum temperatures and rainfalls were analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test. The result indicated that the trend in annual maximum rainfalls was decreasing, while annual total rainfall was increasing but not significant at 5% significance level. The rate of increase in annual total rainfalls was 0.475 mm/year according to the observed annual rainfall series and decreased to 0.68 mm/year in annual maximum. The analysis further found that annual maximum temperatures were increasing at the rate of 0.03°C/year at 5% significance level. To provide more accurate climate predictions, it is recommended that further studies on rainfall and temperature with data sets spanning 60 - 90 years be carried out.

关键词： Sahel Countries Bamako Recent Trends Mann-Kendall Trend Test Climate Change

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