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Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第1期2卷 56-70页

作者： Alexander e.Zarebski Peter Dawson James M.McCaw robert Moss School of Mathematics and Statistics The University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia Land Personnel Protection Branch Land DivisionDefence Science and Technology OrganisationMelbourneAustralia Centre for epidemiology and Biostatistics Melbourne School of Population and Global HealthThe University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia Modelling&Simulation Murdoch Childrens Research InstituteRoyal Childrens HospitalMelbourneAustralia

epidemics of seasonal influenza inflict a huge burden in temperate climes such as Melbourne(Australia)where there is also significant variability in their timing and *** filters combined with mechanistic transmission models for the spread of influenza have emerged as a popular method for forecasting the progression of these *** extensive research it is still unclear what the optimal models are for forecasting influenza,and how one even measures forecast *** this paper,we present a likelihood-based method,akin to Bayes factors,for model selection when the aim is to select for predictive ***,“predictive skill”is measured by the probability of the data after the forecasting date,conditional on the data from before the forecasting *** this method we choose an optimal model of influenza transmission to forecast the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza in Melbourne in each of the 2010e15 *** basic transmission model considered has the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered structure with extensions allowing for the effects of absolute humidity and inhomogeneous mixing in the *** neither of the extensions provides a significant improvement in fit to the data they do differ in terms of their predictive *** measurements of absolute humidity and a sinusoidal approximation of those measurements are observed to increase the predictive skill of the forecasts,while allowing for inhomogeneous mixing reduces the *** discuss how our work could be integrated into a forecasting system and how the model selection method could be used to evaluate forecasts when comparing to multiple surveillance systems providing disparate views of influenza activity.

关键词： mixing inhomogeneous absolute

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Apparent Polar Wander Path from the Tarim Block in China

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Acta Geologica Sinica(english edition) 1990年第1期64卷 1-13页

作者： robert Sharps Michael McWilliams Geophysics Dept. Stanford Univ.StanfordCA94305

The apparent polar wander (APW) path from the Tarim block consists of palaeo-magnetic poles ofDevonian (λ=16°N, ψ= 165° e. A_(95)=4°). Late Carboniferous (λ=41° N, ψ=160° e, A_(95)=4°).Permian (λ=61°N, ψ=177° e. A_(95)=9°). early Triassic (λ=69° N. ψ=183° e. A_(95)=11°) andJurassic/Cretaceous (λ=65° N, ψ=214° e. A_(95)=6°) times. On the basis of this APW path, it is con-cluded that the Tarim block was subducted beneath the Kazakstan plate between Devonian and Permiantimes. The Tarim, North China and South China blocks were sutured between the early Triassic and earlyCretaceous. Tarim had moved eastward some 2000 km relative to Siberia since the Cretaceous.

关键词： Apparent Polar Wander Path from the Tarim Block in China Path

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Why ‘the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau’ is a myth

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National Science Review 2021年第1期8卷 156-174页

作者： robert A.Spicer Tao Su Paul J.Valdes Alexander Farnsworth Fei-Xiang Wu Gongle Shi Teresa e.V.Spicer Zhekun Zhou CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest ecology Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Center of Plant ecology Core Botanical GardensChinese Academy of Sciences School of environment Earth and Ecosystem Sciences The Open University School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Key Laboratory of Vertebrate evolution and Human Origins Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and PaleoanthropologyChinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Palaeobiology and Stratigraphy Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology and Center for Excellence in Life and PaleoenvironmentChinese Academy of Sciences

The often-used phrase ‘the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau’ implies a flat-surfaced Tibet rose as a coherent entity, and that uplift was driven entirely by the collision and northward movement of India. Here, we argue that these are misconceptions derived in large part from simplistic geodynamic and climate modeling, as well as proxy misinterpretation. The growth of Tibet was a complex process involving mostly Mesozoic collisions of several Gondwanan terranes with Asia, thickening the crust and generating complex relief before the arrival of India. In this review, earth system modeling, paleoaltimetry proxies and fossil finds contribute to a new synthetic view of the topographic evolution of Tibet. A notable feature overlooked in previous models of plateau formation was the persistence through much of the Cenozoic of a wide east–west orientated deep central valley, and the formation of a plateau occurred only in the late Neogene through compression and internal sedimentation.

关键词： Tibet paleoaltimetry paleogeography paleontology Himalaya

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Corrigendum to“Back-analysing rock mass modulus from monitoring data of two tunnels in Sydney,Australia”[J Rock Mech Geotech eng 5(2017)877e891]

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical engineering 2018年第1期10卷 195-196页

作者： robert Bertuzzi Pells Sullivan Meynink North RydeNSW 2113Australia School of Civil and environmental engineering University of New South WalesKensingtonNSW 2052Australia

The recent paper by Bertuzzi(2017)published in Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical engineering(JRMGe)included the correlation of rock mass deformation modulus,M,with the Q-value as presented in the first part of Barton(1995).This is reproduced here as eq.(1):M=10Q1/3(1)The unconfined compressive strength(UCS)normalised Q-value,Qc,was introduced in later pages of the article by Barton(1995)to improve the correlation of rock mass quality and seismic *** Qc value is obtained by normalising to nominal hard rock compression strength value of 100 MPa as given in eq.(2):

关键词： The recent paper by Bertuzzi(2017)published

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Validation of PCR for the detection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from corneal samples

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International Journal of Ophthalmology(english edition) 2011年第3期4卷 262-268页

作者： Maria e.Hillenbrand Paul P.Thompson robert M.Q.Shanks Regis P.Kowalski The Charles T.Campbell Ophthalmic Microbiology Laboratory UPMC Eye CenterOphthalmology and Visual Sciences Research CenterUniversity of Pittsburgh School of Medicine

AIM: To determine a species-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay to detect Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA),a secondary DNA target for PA that may provide a universal target for other bacterial pathogens,and validate both assays for diagnostic ***: PCR detection was established against the ecfX PA gene and the 16S rRNA gene using known PA keratitis *** outcome parameters for both assays were 'limit of detection' (LOD),amplification efficiency (Ae),and PAGe amplified product *** assays were validated against 20 true-positive clinical samples positive for PA DNA and 20 true-negative samples containing no PA *** statistics and PAGe analysis were used as outcome ***: Ae of the ecfX assay was 96.6%,and LOD was 33.6 copies of target DNA per *** of the 16S rRNA assay was 103.4%,and LOD was 8.12 copies per *** sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value,and efficiency for the ecfX and 16S rRNA assays were [75%,95%,94%,79%,and 85%],and [70%,100%,100%,77%,and 85%],*** PCR assays were validated,followed by confirmation of DNA patterns from PAGe ***: The PCR methodology described here may be a useful adjunct to standard methods in the diagnosis of PA keratitis.

关键词： Pseudomonas aeruginosa cornea real-time PCR ecfX 16S rRNA

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Long-term effect of intrathecal baclofen treatment on bone health and body composition after spinal cord injury:A case matched report

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World Journal of Orthopedics 2020年第10期11卷 453-464页

作者： Dora e Ifon Mina P Ghatas John C Davis Refka e Khalil robert A Adler Ashraf S Gorgey Spinal Cord Injury and Disorders Center Central Virginia VA Health Care SystemRichmondVA 23249United States Medical Service Central Virginia VA Health Care SystemRichmondVA 23249United States Department of Internal Medicine Division of EndocrinologyDiabetes and MetabolismVirginia Commonwealth UniversityRichmondVA 23298United States Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Virginia Commonwealth UniversityRichmondVA 23298United States

BACKGROUND Severe spasticity may negatively impact functionality and quality of life after spinal cord injury(SCI).Intrathecal baclofen treatment(IBT)is effectively used to manage severe spasticity and reduce ***,long-term IBT may have a negative effect on bone mineral content(BMC),bone mineral density(BMD)and body composition(such as percentage fat mass and lean body mass).We demonstrated the negative effects of long-term IBT use in a single case compared with two non-IBT *** SUMMARY A 46-year old Caucasian male Veteran(case)with a 21 year history of complete tetraplegia(complete C6 SCI)was implanted with IBT for 20 *** case was matched to two participants with different time since injuries[2(match 1)and 13(match 2)years]without *** BMC and BMD at the epiphysis and metaphysis of the distal femur and proximal tibia were evaluated using dual knee and the dual femur modules of Ge Lunar iDXA *** and leg body composition assessments were also conducted for the three *** effect of long-term IBT was demonstrated by changes in BMD,consistent with bone demineralization,at the distal femur and proximal tibia and changes in percentage fat mass and lean mass of *** case showed 113%lower BMD at the distal femur,and 78.1%lower at the proximal tibia compared to match 1,moreover the case showed 45%lower BMD at the distal femur,and no observed changes at the proximal tibia compared to match *** case had 27.1%and 16.5%greater leg%fat mass compared to match 1 and match 2,***,the case had 17.4%and 11.8%lower%leg lean mass compared to match 1 and match 2,*** Long-term IBT may impact bone health and body composition parameters in persons with complete *** may be prudent to encourage regular screening of individuals on long-term IBT considering the prevalence of osteoporosis related fractures,cardiovascular diseases,and metabolic disorders in this population.

关键词： Intrathecal baclofen Spasticity Bone mineral density epiphysis Metaphysis Spinal cord injury Case report

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Field Observations of the Vulnerable Impressed Tortoise, Manouria impressa, from Southern Laos and Notes on Local Chelonian Trade

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Asian Herpetological Research 2013年第2期4卷 151-154页

作者： Thomas CALAMe Thomas N. e. GRAY Martha HURLeY robert J. TIMMINS Khamhou THONGSAMOUTH WWF Greater Mekong House No. 39Unit 05Ban SaylomVientianeLao PDR Société d'Histoire Naturelle Alcide-d'Orbigny 57rue de Gergovie63170 AubièreFrance Global Wildlife Conservation

Observations of wild chelonians in Indochina are uncommon with most records and specimens coming from the commercial wildlife trade. During the surveys of the Xe Sap National Protected Area in southern Laos between February and May 2012, four impressed tortoises, Manouria impressa(IUCN Red List: Vulnerable) were found in three separate field locations. There are few published observations of this species in the wild. We also present data on threats and local value of chelonians in the wildlife trade.

关键词： Xe Sap National Protected Area Laos Manouria impressa wildlife trade

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AA3104铝合金均匀化过程中的(Fe,Mn)Al_6相向α-Al_(12)(Fe,Mn)_3Si相转变研究

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金属学报 2012年第3期48卷 351-356页

作者：张永皞张志清 robert e.SANDeRS 刘庆重庆大学材料科学与工程学院重庆400044

采用SeM背散射电子(BSe)技术以及能谱(eDS)等手段定量研究了加热温度和保温时间对AA3104铝合金中(Fe,Mn)Al_6相向α-Al_(12)(Fe,Mn)_3Si相转变作用规律,通过连续截面方法对600℃保温条件下不同阶段的共晶相(即(Fe,Mn)Al_6相及α-Al_(12)... 详细信息

采用SeM背散射电子(BSe)技术以及能谱(eDS)等手段定量研究了加热温度和保温时间对AA3104铝合金中(Fe,Mn)Al_6相向α-Al_(12)(Fe,Mn)_3Si相转变作用规律,通过连续截面方法对600℃保温条件下不同阶段的共晶相(即(Fe,Mn)Al_6相及α-Al_(12)(Fe,Mn)_3Si相)形貌进行三维重构,从三维角度揭示了转化各阶段共晶相的三维形态.对转变过程中标志性的铝点进行了定量表征,结果表明在转化的不同阶段,对应的铝点形貌特征也不尽相同,在均匀化进行到一定阶段后,大量铝点通过扩散而消失,导致α相体积明显减小.分析了转化后α相的微观形貌特征,认为转化后存在的脆弱"双相"界面以及α相内部"疏松多孔"的状态,将有助于其在轧制过程中的破碎.

关键词： AA3104铝合金均匀化共晶相相转变

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emergency medicine in the United States:a systemic review

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World Journal of emergency Medicine 2012年第1期3卷 5-10页

作者： robert e.Suter University of Texas-Southwestern Medical School Dallas TexasUSA

BACKGROUND:Fifty years of our history in developing and advancing emergency medicine into an independent medical specialty will surely provide emergency medicine colleagues from all over the world with valuable suggestions and *** SOURCeS:This systemic review is based on the author's extensive experience through active involvement in the national and international development of emergency ***:emergency physicians in the *** departments and sometimes other settings provide urgent and emergency care to patients of all ages,including definitive diagnosis of emergent conditions,prolonged stabilization of patients when necessary,airway management,and life-saving procedures using rapid sequence intubation and *** use a multitude of diagnostic technologies including laboratory studies,bedside ultrasound and other sophisticated radiology,such as CT scan,and ***:In the U.S.,emergency medicine fits extremely well into the overall medical system,and is clearly the most efficient way to provide emergency patient care.

关键词： emergency medicine Systemic review U.S.A.

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Correlations of Materials Surface Properties with Biological Responses

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Journal of Surface engineered Materials and Advanced Technology 2015年第1期5卷 42-51页

作者： robert e. Baier Industry/University Center for Biosurfaces 110 Parker Hall State University of New York at Buffalo Buffalo NY USA

More than 50 years have passed since it was first recognized that the surface properties, and predominantly the surface energies of materials controlled their interactions with all biological phases via their spontaneous acquisition of proteinaceous “conditioning films” of differing degrees of denaturation but usually of the same substances within any given system. This led to the understanding that useful engineering control of such interactions could thus be manifested through adjustments to those surface properties, giving significant control and utility to the biomaterials developer without requiring detailed discovery of the biological specifications of the components involved. Thus, effective selection of adhesive versus abhesive (non-stick, non-retention) outcomes for such useful appliances as dental implants versus substitute blood vessels, or water-resistant bonded structures versus clean, nontoxic ship bottoms is now facilitated with little biological background required. A historical overview is presented, followed by a brief survey of the forces involved and most useful analyses applied. Utility for blood-contacting materials is described in contrast to utility for bone- and tissue-contacting materials, demonstrating practical uses in controlling cell-surface interactions and preventing biofouling. New research directions being explored are noted, urging applications of this prior knowledge to replace the use of toxicants.

关键词： Surface Property Biological Response Adhesive Blood-Contacting Materials

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