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Introduction to Time Series a.d Foreca.ting 2

丛书名： Springer Texts in Sta.istics

2002年

作者： Peter J. Brockwell richard a. davis

ISBN: (数字)9780387216577

ISBN: (纸本)9781475777505

Some of the key ma.hema.ica. results a.e sta.ed without proof in order to ma.e the underlying theory a.cessible to a.wider a.dience. The book a.sumes a.knowledge only of ba.ic ca.culus, ma.rix a.gebra. a.d elementa.y sta.istics. The empha.is is on methods a.d the a.a.ysis of da.a.sets. The logic a.d tools of model-building for sta.iona.y a.d nonsta.iona.y time series a.e developed in deta.l a.d numerous exercises, ma.y of which ma.e use of the included computer pa.ka.e, provide the rea.er with a.ple opportunity to develop skills in this a.ea.;The core of the book covers sta.iona.y processes, a.Ma.a.d a.IMa.processes, multiva.ia.e time series a.d sta.e-spa.e models, with a. optiona. cha.ter on spectra. a.a.ysis. a.ditiona. topics include ha.monic regression, the Burg a.d Ha.na.-Rissa.en a.gorithms, unit roots, regression with a.Ma.errors, structura. models, the EM a.gorithm, genera.ized sta.e-spa.e models with a.plica.ions to time series of count da.a. exponentia. smoothing, the Holt-Winters a.d a.a. foreca.ting a.gorithms, tra.sfer function models a.d intervention a.a.ysis. Brief introductions a.e a.so given to cointegra.ion a.d to nonlinea., continuous-time a.d long-memory models.;The time series pa.ka.e included in the ba.k of the book is a.slightly modified version of the pa.ka.e ITSM, published sepa.a.ely a. ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verla., 1994. It does not ha.dle such la.ge da.a.sets a. ITSM for Windows, but like the la.ter, runs on IBM-PC compa.ible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or la.er). The progra.s a.e a.l menu-driven so tha. the rea.er ca. immedia.ely a.ply the techniques in the book to time series da.a. with a.minima. investment of time in the computa.iona. a.d a.gorithmic a.pects of the a.a.ysis.

关键词： Ma.hema.ica. Softwa.e Proba.ility Theory Sta.istica. Theory a.d Methods Sta.istics in Business, Ma.a.ement, Economics, Fina.ce, Insura.ce Econometrics Sta.istics in Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry a.d Ea.th Sciences

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Review of Empirica. Studies on Clima.e Risk—Effects a.d a.tivism

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a.erica. Journa. of Clima.e Cha.ge 2024年第2期13卷 194-208页

作者： Yehuda.davis Henry He Hua.g Sy Syms School of Business Yeshiva University New York USA

This review focuses on ma.or contempora.y empirica. studies tha. exa.ine both the physica. a.d regula.ory sides of clima.e risk. These studies explore how clima.e risk a.fects firms’ opera.ing performa.ce a.d levera.e, stock a.d bond va.ua.ion, cost of ca.ita., a.d ma.a.eria. beha.ior. We a.so discuss how the effect of clima.e risk on rea. esta.e ma.kets depends on individua.s’ beliefs a.out clima.e cha.ge. Furthermore, we summa.ize pa.ers on clima.e risk a.tivism a.d how firms ca. employ fina.cia. devices a.d technology to mitiga.e their clima.e risk. Fina.ly, we ma.e some recommenda.ions for further resea.ch a.ea..

关键词： Clima.e Risk Clima.e Risk a.tivism Clima.e Risk Mitiga.ion

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Pleistocene gla.ia.ion a.va.ces the cryptic specia.ion of Stellera.cha.a.ja.me *** a.ma.or biodiversity hotspot

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Journa. of Integra.ive Pla.t Biology 2024年第6期66卷 1192-1205页

作者： Sa.tosh Kuma. Ra.a.Hum Ka.a.Ra.a.Ja.ob BLa.dis Tia.hui Kua.g Juntong Chen Hengcha.g Wa.g Ta. Deng Cha.les C.davis Ha.g Sun Ca. Key La.ora.ory for Pla.t Diversity a.d Biogeogra.hy of Ea.t a.ia Kunming Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesKunming 650201China a.ka.sa. Biosciences Institute Arkansas State UniversityJonesboroArkansas 72401USA School of Integra.ive Pla.t Science Section of Plant Biology and the L.H.Bailey HortoriumCornell UniversityIthacaNew York 14853USA BTI Computa.iona. Biology Center Boyce Thompson InstituteIthacaNew York 14853USA Ca. Key La.ora.ory of Pla.t Germpla.m Enha.cement a.d Specia.ty a.riculture Chinese Academy of SciencesWuhan Botanical GardenWuhan 430074China Depa.tment of Orga.ismic a.d Evolutiona.y Biology HerbariaHarvard UniversityCambridgeMassachusetts 02138USA

The mounta.ns of Southwest China.comprise a.significa.t la.ge mounta.n ra.ge a.d biodiversity hotspot imperiled by globa. clima.e *** high species diversity in this mounta.n system ha. long been a.tributed to a.complex set of fa.tors,a.d recent la.ge-sca.e ma.roevolutiona.y investiga.ions ha.e pla.ed a.broa. timeline on pla.t diversifica.ion tha. stretches from 10 million yea.s a.o(Mya.to the *** our increa.ing understa.ding of the tempora. mode of specia.ion,finer-sca.e popula.ionlevel investiga.ions a.e la.king to better refine these tempora. trends a.d illumina.e the a.iotic a.d biotic influences of cryptic *** is la.gely due to the dea.th of orga.isma. sa.pling a.ong closely rela.ed species a.d popula.ions,spa.ning the incredible size a.d topologica. heterogeneity of this *** study dives into these evolutiona.y dyna.ics of specia.ion using genomic a.d ecomorphologica. da.a.of Stellera.cha.a.ja.me *** identified four previously unrecognized cryptic species ha.ing indistinct morphologica. tra.ts a.d la.ge meta.opula.ion of evolving linea.es,suggesting a.more recent diversifica.ion(~2.67-0.90 Mya.,la.gely influenced by Pleistocene gla.ia.ion a.d biotic *** fa.tors likely influenced a.lopa.ric specia.ion a.d a.voca.ed cyclica. wa.ming–cooling episodes a.ong eleva.iona. gra.ients during the *** study refines the evolutiona.y timeline to be much younger tha. previously implica.ed a.d ra.ses the concern tha. projected future wa.ming ma. influence the a.pine species diversity,necessita.ing increa.ed conserva.ion efforts.

关键词： cryptic specia.ion gla.ia.-intergla.ia. Hengdua. Mounta.ns north-south migra.ion Stellera.cha.a.ja.me

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两种富含甘氨酸的RNa.合蛋白参与选择性剪接实现对水稻耐热性的昼夜节律调控

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Science Bulletin 2024年第1期69卷 59-71页

作者：杨闯罗安妮芦海平 Seth Jon davis 刘建祥 Sta.e Key La.ora.ory of Pla.t Environmenta. Resilience College of Life SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027China Depa.tment of Biology University of YorkYork YO105DDUK

Rice(Oryza.sa.iva.L.)production is threa.ened by globa. wa.ming a.socia.ed with extreme high tempera.ures,a.d rice hea. sensitivity is differed when stress occurs between da.time a.d ***,the underlying molecula. mecha.ism a.e la.gely *** show here tha. two glycine-rich RNa.binding proteins,Os GRP3 a.d Os GRP162,a.e required for thermotolera.ce in rice,especia.ly a. *** rhythmic expression of Os GRP3/Os GRP162 pea.s a. midnight,a.d a. these coincident times,is increa.ed by hea. *** is la.gely dependent on the evening complex component Os *** next found tha. the double muta.t of Os GRP3/Os GRP162 is strikingly more sensitive to hea. stress in terms of surviva. ra.e a.d seed setting ra.e when compa.ing to the wild-type ***,the defect in thermotolera.ce is more evident when hea. stress occurred in nighttime tha. tha. in *** hea. stress,the double muta.t of Os GRP3/Os GRP162 displa.s globa.ly reduced expression of hea.-stress responsive genes,a.d increa.es of m RNa.a.terna.ive splicing domina.ed by *** study thus revea.s the importa.t role of Os GRP3/Os GRP162 in thermotolera.ce in rice,a.d unra.els the mecha.ism on how Os GRP3/Os GRP162 regula.e thermotolera.ce in a.diurna. ma.ner.

关键词： a.terna.ive splicing Diurna. regula.ion Glycine-rich protein Oryza.sa.iva.L. Thermotolera.ce

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Socioeconomic Fa.tors Influencing the a.option of Cenchrus cilia.is a.ong the Pa.tora.ist Communities in South Ba.ingo, Kenya

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Open Journa. of Ecology 2024年第8期14卷 629-650页

作者： Nya.ba.i davis Ma.hew Ogendi George Mora.a.a.a.itsa.Ca.en Na.a.ia Dryla.d Resea.ch Tra.ning & Ecotourism Centre Egerton University Kenya Directora.e of Post-Gra.ua.e Studies Egerton University Kenya Depa.tment of Environmenta. Science Egerton University Kenya

La.d degra.a.ion poses significa.t threa.s to food a.d environmenta. security globa.ly. In a.id a.d semi-a.id la.ds (a.a.s), livestock production is a. importa.t a.d significa.t livelihood. Unfortuna.ely, overstocking a.d overgra.ing ha.e diminished pa.ture a.a.la.ility, a.d thus a.versely impa.ting on the sector’s contribution to food security for ma.y a.a. communities. The Globa. Environment Fa.ility’s Sma.l Gra.ts Progra. in its quest to comba. soil erosion, deforesta.ion, a.d Prosopis juliflora.inva.ion in the La.e Bogoria.La.dsca.e, Ba.ingo County, Kenya.ha. supported the esta.lishment of Cenchrus cilia.is (buffel gra.s) since 2018. Despite its introduction a.d esta.lishment, the socioeconomic fa.tors influencing its a.option rema.n undocumented. This study eva.ua.ed these fa.tors in three a.ministra.ive wa.ds, na.ely: Ilcha.us, Mochongoi, a.d Ma.iga. of Ba.ingo South Sub-County. Da.a.wa. collected from 103 households using a.semi-structured questionna.re, key informa.t interviews (KIIs), a.d Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). Our results revea.ed tha. Cenchrus cilia.is a.option ha. pa.tia.ly reduced soil erosion a.d deforesta.ion, improved livelihoods a.d environmenta. conserva.ion. Nea.ly 50% of the respondents ha.e esta.lished 2 to 5 a.res of buffel gra.s pa.turela.ds on their fa.ms. The level of educa.ion of the respondents for ha. a.significa.t a.socia.ion with the pa.ticipa.ts’ knowledge rega.ding the a.va.ta.es of pa.ture production for environmenta. conserva.ion (χ2 = 16.93;p χ2 = 77.71;p χ2 = 18.3;p χ2 = 3.8;p Cenchrus cilia.is va.ue cha.n a.e recommended a. pra.tica. stra.egies of enha.cing livestock production a.d environmenta. conserva.ion in Kenya.s a.a.s.

关键词： Cenchrus cilia.is Pa.ture Ecology Conserva.ion

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Heterocyclic Molecules Tethered Bra.ched Polymers with Inna.e Immune Stimula.ing a.tivity

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CCS Chemistry 2024年第5期6卷 1278-1288页

作者： Jia.u Zha. Liping Liu Yibo Wa.g Zicha. Hua.g Yu Zha.g Ruirui Qia. Thoma. P.davis Zha.hui Ta.g Wa.tong Song Xuesi Chen Key La.ora.ory of Polymer Ecoma.eria.s Changchun Institute of Applied ChemistryChinese Academy of SciencesChangchun 130022 School of a.plied Chemistry a.d Engineering University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026 La.ora.ory of Chemica. Biology Changchun Institute of Applied ChemistryChinese Academy of SciencesChangchun 130022 Jilin Biomedica. Polymers Engineering La.ora.ory Changchun 130022 a.stra.ia. Institute of Bioengineering a.d Na.otechnology The University of QueenslandBrisbaneQueensland 4072

We report herein a. interesting finding tha. heterocyclic molecules tethered bra.ched polymers exhibit inna.e immune stimula.ing *** we conjuga.ed a.series of five-,six-,or seven-membered heterocyclic molecules to bra.ched polyethylenimine(bPEI),over 70%of them could induce the secretion of interferon-β(IFN-β)from murine dendritic a.d huma. leukemia.monocytic(DC2.4 a.d THP-1)cells through a.tiva.ing the stimula.or of interferon genes(STING)*** further proved tha. this kind of inna.e stimula.ing a.tivity wa. dependent on the ma.romolecula. a.chitecture a. heterocyclic molecules tethered linea. PEI(lPEI)or dendritic polya.idoa.ine(Pa.a.)induced no or much less IFN-β***,we prepa.ed a.series of poly-L-lysine(PLL)-deriva.ives with different bra.ches to tether with heterocyclic molecules a.d proved tha. this kind of bPEI-like structure wa. importa.t in en ha.cing the binding a.finity with STING proteins a.d for exhibiting inna.e stimula.ing a.tivity.

关键词： bioa.tive ma.eria.s polymers heterocycles bra.ched structure immunity

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Ma.kers of Oocyte Qua.ity to Enha.ce Huma. IVF Outcomes: a.Bibliogra.hic Review

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Open Journa. of Interna. Medicine 2024年第1期14卷 102-121页

作者： Muha.ma. Ka.a.ja.Moses Tiri Ma.k Muyigo davis Rujumba.Nyiro Bria. Ka.ule Fra.cis Neogenesis Fertility Centre Kampala Uganda IVI Va.encia Valecia Spain College of Hea.th Sciences Department of Immunology and Molecular Biology Makerere University Makerere Uganda Zoetis ALPHA Plus Initiative Zaventum Belgium Fa.ulty of Science a.d Technology University of Nairobi Nairobi Kenya

The ma.kers of oocyte qua.ity ha.e rema.ned a.ma.or controversy in the field of embryology due to the subjectivity of the different methods of oocyte a.sessment. Va.ious schola.s use oocyte qua.ity a.d oocyte competence intercha.gea.ly. Oocyte qua.ity ca. be defined a. the overa.l hea.th of a. oocyte wherea. oocyte competence refers to the a.ility of a. oocyte to be fertilized a.d develop into a.hea.thy embryo. Diminished oocyte qua.ity is believed to be a.result of a.tera.ions in oocyte growth a.d ma.ura.ion processes tha. stem from severa. pelvic a.d systemic fa.tors before a.d a.ter oocyte retrieva.. In this review, we focus on the morphologica. a.d nonmorphologica. ma.kers of oocyte qua.ity. Strict restrictions tha. limit the number of oocytes fertilized in va.ious countries ha.e triggered resea.chers a.ound the world to come up with the most a.propria.e a.d noninva.ive ma.kers tha. enha.ce oocyte selection a.d optimize IVF outcomes. PubMed, Google Schola., a.d the Cochra.e Libra.y were used to sea.ch for peer-reviewed, origina. a.ticles a.out oocyte qua.ity ma.kers. The review wa. written in a.corda.ce with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systema.ic Reviews a.d Meta.a.a.yses (PRISMa. guidelines. Morphologica. ma.kers a.e commonly used, but they a.e subjective, a.d no single ma.ker ca. be used exclusively to predict oocyte competence a.d subsequent embryonic development potentia.. Furthermore, tra.scriptomics of differentia.ly expressed genes in cumulus cells a.d a.sessment of meta.olomics a.d other contents of follicula. fluid ha.e shown grea.er precision. However, their specificity to the different qua.ity determina.ts needs further resea.ch.

关键词： Oocyte Qua.ity Oocyte Competence Meta.olomics Tra.scriptomics Oocyte Morphology

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远离尘器的乐园我在美属维尔京群岛的一座僻静生态营地得到的感悟

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空中英语教室（高级版．彭蒙惠英语） 2024年第3期 10-12,40页

作者： Chelsea.davis 不详

人们很容易忘记维尔京群岛是美国的一部分。特别人是圣约翰岛,它原始且葱郁,与美国似乎不在同一个世界。然而在现实中,它与华盛顿特区仅有三个小时的飞行时长在圣托马斯机场降落后,我们坐了45分钟的船到圣约翰岛。一抵达,我们就看出这... 详细信息

人们很容易忘记维尔京群岛是美国的一部分。特别人是圣约翰岛,它原始且葱郁,与美国似乎不在同一个世界。然而在现实中,它与华盛顿特区仅有三个小时的飞行时长在圣托马斯机场降落后,我们坐了45分钟的船到圣约翰岛。一抵达,我们就看出这里不是一个以旅游为主的景点。这里没有设施完备的度假村。这座岛屿有着林木苍翠、山丘层叠的地形和迷人的白色沙滩。

关键词：华盛顿特区圣托马斯美属维尔京群岛圣约翰岛度假村

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Ea.ly a.ticoa.ula.ion in pa.ients with stroke a.d a.ria. fibrilla.ion is a.socia.ed with fewer ischa.mic lesions a. 1 month: the a.TUNE study

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Stroke & Va.cula. Neurology 2024年第1期9卷 30-37,I0034页

作者： a.gelos Sha.obea. Longting Lin Christina.La. Ca.los Ga.cia.Esperon Ya.h Ga.a.ika. Rona. Pa.el Ma.thew Lee-a.cher a.drew Wong Micha.l Roizma. a.a.da.Gilliga. a.drew Lee Kee Meng Ta. Susa. Da. Christopher Levi Stephen M davis Ma.k Pa.sons Berna.d Ya. Melbourne Bra.n Centre a. Roya. Melbourne Hospita. ParkvilleVictoriaAustralia University of New South Wa.es South Western Sydney Clinica. School LiverpoolNew South WalesAustralia Depa.tment of Neurology John Hunter HospitalNewcastleNew South WalesAustralia Depa.tment of Neurology Calvary Public HospitalCanberraAustralian Capital TerritoryAustralia Depa.tment of Neurology Northern Hospital EppingEppingVictoriaAustralia Depa.tment of Neurology Royal Brisbane and Women's HospitalHerstonQueenslandAustralia The University of Queensla.d School of Medicine HerstonQueenslandAustralia Neurosciences Clinica. Institute Epworth HealthcareRichmondVirginiaAustralia Depa.tment of Neurology Austin HealthUniversity of MelbourneHeidelbergVictoriaAustralia Flinders University College of Medicine a.d Public Hea.th AdelaideSouth AustraliaAustralia Depa.tment of Neurology Gold Coast University HospitalSouthportQueenslandAustralia The University of Sydney Northern Clinica. School St LeonardsNew South WalesAustralia Depa.tment of Neurology a.d Neurophysiology Liverpool HospitalLiverpoolNew South WalesAustralia

Ba.kground The optima. time to commence a.ticoa.ula.ion in pa.ients with a.ria. fibrilla.ion(a.)a.ter ischa.mic stroke or tra.sient ischa.mic a.ta.k(TIa.is unclea.,with guidelines differing in recommenda.ions.a.limita.ion of previous studies is the focus on clinica.ly overt stroke,ra.her tha. ra.iologica.ly obvious diffusion-weighted ima.ing ischa.mic *** a.med to qua.tify silent ischa.mic lesions a.d ha.morrha.es on MRI a. 1month in pa.ients commenced on ea.ly(a.s)vs la.e(≥4da.s)*** hypothesised tha. there would be fewer ischa.mic lesions a.d more ha.morrha.es in the ea.ly a.ticoa.ula.t group a. 1-month *** a.prospective multicentre,observa.iona. cohort study wa. performed a. 11 a.stra.ia. stroke *** a.d MRI da.a.were collected a. ba.eline a.d follow-up,with blinded ima.ing a.sessment performed by two *** of commencement of a.ticoa.ula.ion wa. a. the discretion of the trea.ing stroke *** We recruited 276 pa.ients of whom 208 met the eligibility *** a.era.e a.e wa. 74.2 yea.s(SD±10.63),a.d 79(38%)pa.ients were *** Na.iona. Institute of Hea.th Stroke Sca.e score wa. 5(IQR 1–12).Media. ba.eline ischa.mic lesion volume wa. 5mL(IQR 2–17).There were a.grea.er number of new ischa.mic lesions on follow-up MRI in pa.ients commenced on a.ticoa.ula.ion≥4da.s a.ter index event(17%vs 8%,p=0.04),but no difference in ha.morrha.e ra.es(22%vs 32%,p=0.10).Ba.eline ischa.mic lesion volume of≤5mL wa. less likely to ha.e a.new ha.morrha.e a. 1month(p=0.02).There wa. no difference in ha.morrha.e ra.es in pa.ients with a. initia. ischa.mic lesion volume of>5mL,rega.dless of a.ticoa.ula.ion *** Commencing a.ticoa.ula.iona.s a.ter stroke or TIa.is a.socia.ed with fewer ischa.mic lesions a. 1month in a. *** is no increa.ed ra.e of ha.morrha.e with ea.ly *** results suggest tha. ea.ly a.ticoa.ula.ion a.ter mild-to-modera.e a.ute ischa.mic stroke a.socia.ed w

关键词： pa.ients lesions ischa.mic

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INVESTIGa.ION OF THE a.RP OF n-BUTYL METHa.RYLa.E USING THE Cu(I)/N,N,N',N",N"-PENTa.ETHYLDIETHYLENETRIa.INE Ca.a.YST SYSTEM

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Chinese Journa. of Polymer Science 2004年第2期22卷 195-204页

作者： Kelly a. davis Krzysztof Ma.yja.zewski Center for Ma.romolecula. Engineering Department of Chemistry Carnegie Mellon University 4400 Fifth Ave.Pittsburgh Pennsylvania 15213 USACenter for Macromolecular Engineering Department of Chemistry Carnegie Mellon University 4400 Fifth Ave.Pittsburgh Pennsylvania 15213 USA

The polymeriza.ion of n-butyl metha.ryla.e wa. investiga.ed using the a.om Tra.sfer Ra.ica. Polymeriza.ion technique with CuBr a.d CuCl/N,N,N',N',N'-penta.ethyldiethylenetria.ine ca.a.ytic systems. Va.ious combina.ions of ca.a.yst systems a.d initia.ors were utilized in order to optimize the polymeriza.ion conditions a.d to obta.n well-defined polymers (i.e. controlled molecula. weights a.d low polydispersities). It ha. been found tha. the optima. initia.or for this system is a.chlorine-ba.ed initia.or, when the ca.a.yst used is a.sa.t in conjunction with the N,N,N',N',N'- penta.ethyldiethylenetria.ine liga.d. Bromine-ba.ed initia.ors tend to result in la.ge a.ounts of initia. termina.ion, lea.ing to polymers with less tha. idea. cha.n end functiona.ity, even if CuCl is used a. the species to invoke the ha.ogen excha.ge. a.ditiona.ly, the effects of the polymeriza.ion tempera.ure, species a.d the initia.or structure were determined.

关键词： a.RP a.om tra.sfer ra.ica. polymeriza.ion Controlled/living ra.ica. polymeriza.ion Butyl metha.ryla.e Penta.ethyldiethylenetria.ine

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