Background:Accurate risk stratification of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is essential for optimizing resource allocation,delivering targeted interventions,and maximizing patient surviv...
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Background:Accurate risk stratification of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is essential for optimizing resource allocation,delivering targeted interventions,and maximizing patient survival *** learning(ML)techniques are attracting increased interest for the development of prediction models as they excel in the analysis of complex signals in data-rich environments such as critical ***:We retrieved data on patients with COVID-19 admitted to an intensive care unit(ICU)between March and October 2020 from the RIsk Stratification in COVID-19 patients in the Intensive Care Unit(RISC-19-ICU)*** applied the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm to the data to predict as a binary out-come the increase or decrease in patients’Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score on day 5 after ICU *** model was iteratively cross-validated in different subsets of the study ***:The final study population consisted of 675 *** XGBoost model correctly predicted a decrease in SOFA score in 320/385(83%)critically ill COVID-19 patients,and an increase in the score in 210/290(72%)*** area under the mean receiver operating characteristic curve for XGBoost was significantly higher than that for the logistic regression model(0.86 vs.0.69,P<0.01[paired t-test with 95%confidence interval]).Conclusions:The XGBoost model predicted the change in SOFA score in critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU and can guide clinical decision support systems(CDSSs)aimed at optimizing available resources.
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