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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2 & GAO YuZhong3 1 Nansen-Zhu International research center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate university of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china Nansen-Zhu International research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate university of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administ

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Factors governing formation of todorokite at atmospheric pressure

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第10期48卷 1678-1689页

作者： CUI Haojie1, FENG Xionghan1, LIU Fan1, TAN Wenfeng1 & HE Jizheng2 1. College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural university, Wuhan 430070, china 2. research center for eco-environmental sciences, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100085, china College of Resources and Environment Huazhong Agricultural university Wuhan china research center for eco-environmental sciences chinese academy of sciences beijing china

Todorokite commonly occurs in Earth surface environments. The factors governing formation of todorokite, such as reaction temperature, metal ions, dissolved O2 and pH, were investigated in this paper. Results showed that the forming rate of todorokite and its crystallinity decreased with falling reaction temperature, and the effect of temperature was more significant than that of other parameters. Nature of metal ions in the interlayer of buserite precursor and the structure of the buserite precursor obviously affected buserite transformation into todorokite. Weak bonding between the metal ions and MnO6 layer of buserite was favorable to todorokite formation. The rate of todorokite formation was promoted at a lower temperature with appropriate bubbling of O2. The pH in the system slightly influenced the todorokite formation, and todorokite could also be formed in a weak alkali medium or in a slightly acidic medium. Aged buserite pre-cursor more easily form todorokite than the unaged one.

关键词： todorokite, buserite, manganese oxide mineral, atmospheric pressure, transformation.

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A one-dimensional heat transfer model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and modeling of snow temperatures at Dome A, the summit of Antarctic Plateau

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Science china Earth sciences 2010年第5期53卷 763-772页

作者： CHEN BaiLian1,3, ZHANG RenHe2, SUN ShuFen1, BIAN LinGen2, XIAO CunDe4,2 & ZHANG TingJun5 1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 chinese academy of Meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china 3 Graduate university of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 4 Cold and Arid Regions environmental and Engineering research Institute, chinese academy of sciences, Lanzhou 730000, china 5 The National Snow and Ice Data center, university of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0449, USA 1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China4. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China5. The National Snow and Ice Data Center University of Colorado Boulder CO 80309-0449 USA

A vertical one-dimensional numerical model for heat transferring within the near-surface snow layer of the Antarctic Ice Sheet was developed based on simplified parameterizations of associated physical processes for the atmosphere, radiation, and snow/ice systems. Using the meteorological data of an automatic weather station (AWS) at Dome A (80°22′S, 70°22′E), we applied the model to simulate the seasonal temperature variation within a depth of 20 m. Comparison of modeled results with observed snow temperatures at 4 measurement depths (0.1, 1, 3, 10 m) shows good agreement and consistent seasonal variations. The model results reveal the vertical temperature structure within the near-surface snow layer and its seasonal variance with more details than those by limited measurements. Analyses on the model outputs of the surface energy fluxes show that: 1) the surface energy balance at Dome A is characterized by the compensation between negative net radiation and the positive sensible fluxes, and 2) the sensible heat is on average transported from the atmosphere to the snow, and has an evident increase in spring. The results are considered well representative for the highest interior Antarctic Plateau.

关键词： Antarctic Ice Sheet near-surface layer energy transfer numerical model

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Patterns of platinum-group elements in mantle peridotite, granulite xenoliths and basalt in Hannuoba

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chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第18期44卷 1676-1681页

作者： CHU Xuelei, LI Xiaolin, XU Jiuhua and LIU Jianming1. The research center of Mineral Resources Exploration , chinese academy of sciences , beijing 100101, china 2. Institute of Geology , chinese academy of sciences , beijing 100029, china 3. Institute of High Energy Physics , chinese academy of sciences , beijing 100817 , china 4. beijing university of Science and Engineering , beijing 100083, china Corresponding author The research center of Mineral Resources Exploration Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Institute of Geology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Institute of High Energy Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China beijing university of Science and Engineering Beijing China

Neutron activation analysis after preconcentration of nickel sulfide fire assay was used in measurement of Ru, Ph, Pd, Os, Ir, Pt (i.e. PGE elements) and Au concentrations for basalt, mantle and granulite xenoliths in Hannuoba. The chondrite- and primitive mantle-normalized PGE patterns generally exhibit flat (for Iherzolite), negative slope (for harzburgite),

关键词： mantle xenolith granulite xenolith basalt platinum-group element Hannuoba.

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Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第35期57卷 4617-4626页

作者： ZHANG Ran 1,JIANG DaBang 1,2,3,LIU XiaoDong 4 & TIAN ZhiPing 2,5 1 Climate Change research center,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 3 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 4 State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,chinese academy of sciences,Xi’an 710075,china 5 Graduate university of chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100049,china 1. Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Nansen-Zhu International research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 3. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 4. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi’an 710075 China 5. Graduate university of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National center for Atmospheric research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer *** results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon *** is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East *** with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.

关键词：青藏高原隆升喜马拉雅亚洲季风高原气候夏季季风次区域隆起演化建模

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Systematic distortion in cosmic microwave background maps

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Science china(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2009年第5期52卷 804-808页

作者： LIU Hao 1,3 &LI TiPei 1,2 1Key Laboratory of Particle Astrophysics,Institute of High Energy Physics,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100049,china 2center for Astrophysics,Tsinghua university,beijing 100084,china 3 Graduate university of chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100049,china Key Laboratory of Particle Astrophysics Institute of High Energy Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China center for Astrophysics Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China Graduate university of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

To minimize instrumentally the induced systematic errors,cosmic microwave background(CMB)anisotropy experiments measure temperature differences across the sky using pairs of horn antennas, temperature map is recovered from temperature difference obtained in sky survey through a map-making *** inspect and calibrate residual systematic errors in the recovered temperature maps is important as most previous studies of cosmology are based on these *** analyzing pixel-ring coupling and latitude dependence of CMB temperatures,we find notable systematic devia- tion from CMB Gaussianity in released Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe(WMAP)*** detected deviation cannot be explained by the best-fit LCDM cosmological model at a confidence level above 99%and cannot be ignored for a precision cosmology study.

关键词： cosmology cosmic microwave background methods data analysis

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Marginal cost pricing for coal fired electricity in coastal cities of china:The case of Mawan Electricity Plant in Shenzhen City, china

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Journal of environmental sciences 2003年第3期15卷 401-412页

作者： ZHANG Shi-qiu, DUAN Yan-xin (center for environmental sciences, Peking university, beijing 100871, china.) center for environmental sciences Peking University Beijing 100871 Chin

By developing a GDMOD model to estimate the environmental externalities associated with electricity generation, this project provides a detailed analysis of the damages and costs caused by different pollutants at varying distances from the Mawan Electricity Plant in Shenzhen, china. The major findings of this study can be summarized that (1) environmental damages caused by electricity production are large and are mainly imposed on regions far away from the electricity plant; (2) air pollution is the most significant contributor to the total damages, and SO_2, NOx, and particulate matter are the three major pollutants with highest damages; (3) the damages caused per unit of particulate, NOx, and SO_2 emissions are much higher than pollution treatment and prevention costs. The research results of this project showed that china needs to have a more effective levy system on SO_2, and a more manageable electricity tariff mechanism to internalize the environmental externalities. The results have also implications for pollution control strategies, compensation schemes as well as emission trading arrangements.

关键词： marginal cost pricing environmental damages environmental policy

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Distribution and origin of biologically available phosphorus in the water of the Meiliang Bay in summer

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第z1期49卷 146-153页

作者： HUANG Qinghui, WANG Zijian, WANG Donghong, MA Mei & WANG Chunxia State Key Laboratory of environmental Aquatic Chemistry, research center for eco-environmental sciences, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100085, china Key Laboratory of Yangtze Aquatic Environment (Ministry of Education), College of environmental Science and Engineering, Tongji university, Shanghai 200092, china chinese Acad Sci Ecoenvironm Sci Res Ctr State Key Lab Environm Aquat Chem Beijing 100085 Peoples R China Tongji Univ Coll Environm Sci & Engn Minist Educ Key Lab Yangtze Aquat Environm Shanghai 200092 Peoples R China

The investigation and continuous monitoring with an innovative iron oxide embedded cellulose acetate membrane (FeO/CAM) on the concentrations of biologically available phosphorus (BAP) were conducted in the Meiliang Bay of the Taihu Lake during summer in 2004. The results showed that the concentrations of dissolved (FeO-DP), particulate (FeO-PP) and total bioavailable phosphorus (FeO-P) had similar horizontal distribution. The BAP concentrations were the highest in those estuaries in the northern bay. With the decrease of the distance to the estuary or long shore,there was little difference between BAP concentrations in an open lake area. During the observation period, algal blooms occurred in most waters of the northern bay, which was reflected from the high concentrations of chlorophyll a (Chl-a). While they were not highest in the estuarine waters of those major rivers, this is the case for the BAP concentrations. The concentrations of Chl-a had a significantly positive correlation with those of bioavailable phosphorus in the open area of the Meiliang *** the sediment resuspension induced by wind and wave, BAP concentrations increased in a short-term, indicating that the riverine P inputs mainly contribute to the concentrations of BAP in the estuarine water while internal P release was the major source of BAP in the open lake area. In the eutrophic shallow lake, the blooms of alga may cause pH increase and further result in internal P release. The above results showed that the new membrane of FeO/CAM can be used to monitor the concentrations of BAP and provide the scientific justifications for the control strategy of the lake eutrophication.

关键词： phosphorus, bioavailability, eutrophication, resuspension, Taihu Lake.

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Adsorption of zinc on manganite(γ-MnOOH): particle concentration effect and adsorption reversibility

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Journal of environmental sciences 2004年第4期16卷 627-630页

作者： QIN Yan-wen1, PAN Gang 1,2,, ZHANG Ming-ming1, LI Xian-liang1 (1. State Key Laboratory of environmental Aquatic Chemistry, research center for eco-environmental sciences, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100085, china. 2. Qingdao university of Science & Technology, Qingdao 266042, china) State Key Laboratory of environmental Aquatic Chemistry Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100085 China.

The adsorption and desorption processes of Zn(Ⅱ) on γ-MnOOH as a function of particle concentrations(C p) were studied. An obvious C p effect was observed in this adsorption system. The degree of adsorption hysteresis increased greatly with the increasing of C p, indicating that the extent of the real metastable-equilibrium states deviating from the ideal equilibrium state was enhanced with the increasing of C p. The C p-reversibility relationship confirmed the metastable-equilibrium adsorption(MEA) inequality(Pan, 1998a), which was the core formulation of the MEA theory. Because the MEA inequality was based on the basic hypothesis of MEA theory that adsorption density Γ is not a state variable, the C p-reversibility relationship gave indirect evidence to the basic hypothesis of MEA theory.

关键词： zinc γ-MnOOH adsorption reversibility

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Nonlinear interactions between gravity waves and background winds

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第6期17卷 639-644页

作者： Liu Xiao1,2 and Xu Jiyao1(1. State Key Laboratory for Space Weather, center for Space Science and Applied research, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100080, china 2. Graduate university of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100039, china) [a]State Key Laboratory for Space Weather Center for Space Science and Applied Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China [b]Graduate university of chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

Using the nonlinear propagating gravity waves (GW) model in the two-dimensional compressible atmosphere and the linear GW theory, the process of GW propagation in different background winds, e.g. the direction of the background wind is opposite to (dead wind) or the same as (tail wind) the direction of the horizontal phase velocity of GW, is studied. The results show that the dead wind prolongs the vertical wavelength and accelerates GW propagation. Therefore, GW propagates up to a higher height becomes instable in a short time and eventually induces an inverse jet flow. Then, the vertical wavelength is becoming short due to the nonlinear interactions between GW and the inverse jet flow. The vertical wavelength and group velocity decrease after GW propagates into the tail wind. The initial instable time is delayed. Although most of GW is trapped in the instable region, some of GW propagates above the instable region. Compared with GW propagation in the tail wind, the nonlinear interactions between GW and the dead wind are also strong. In contrast, the linear GW theory predicts that GW can propagate freely in the dead wind. The vertical wavelength simulated by the nonlinear numerical model is different from that predicted by the linear theory greatly after GW propagates into the dead wind.

关键词： gravity waves background winds vertical group velocity vertical wavelength nonlinear interactions.

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