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Evaluation of Rainfall Tendency for the Twentieth Century over Indira Sagar Region in Central India

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American Journal of Climate Change 2024年第1期13卷 47-68页

作者： Rituraj Shukla Deepak Khare Ramesh P. rudra Priti Tiwari Himanshu Sharma prasad Daggupati Pradeep Goel School of Engineering University of Guelph Guelph Canada Department of Water Resources Development and Management Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee India Indira Gandhi Agricultural University Raipur India Department of Civil Engineering Institute of Infrastructure Technology Research and Management (IITRAM) Ahmedabad India

The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource development, and hydropower system reliability in the region rely heavily on monsoon rainfall. Monthly rainfall data from three stations (East Nimar, Barwani, and West Nimar) were analyzed. Initially, the pre-whitening method was applied to eliminate serial correlation effects from the rainfall data series. Subsequently, statistical trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were assessed using both parametric (student-t test) and non-parametric tests [Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM)]. The magnitude of the rainfall trend was determined using Theil-Sen’s slope estimator. Spatial analysis of the Mann-Kendall test on an annual basis revealed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend for Barwani and East Nimar and an increasing trend for West Nimar. On a seasonal basis, the monsoon season contributes a significant percentage (88.33%) to the total annual rainfall. The CUSUM test results indicated a shift change detection in annual rainfall data for Barwani in 1997, while shifts were observed in West and East Nimar stations in 1929. These findings offer valuable insights into regional rainfall behavior, aiding in the planning and management of water resources and ecological systems.

关键词： Precipitation Parametric Non-Parametric Tests Trend Analysis Serial Correlations

Comparative analysis of APACHE-Ⅱ and P-POSSUM scoring systems in predicting postoperative mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2019年第16期7卷 2227-2237页

作者： Deb Sanjay Nag Ankur Dembla Pratap rudra Mahanty Shashi Kant Abhishek Chatterjee Devi prasad Samaddar Parul Chugh Department of Anaesthesiology and Critical Care Tata Main HospitalJamshedpur 831001India Department of Anaesthesiology and Critical Care Darya Ram HospitalSonipat 131001India Department of Biomedical Statistics Sir Ganga Ram HospitalNew Delhi 110060India

BACKGROUND Laparotomy remains one of the commonest emergency surgical *** prognostic evaluation would aid in selecting the high-risk patients for an aggressive treatment. Awareness about risks could potentially contribute to the quality of perioperative care and optimum utilization of resources. Portsmouth modification of Physiological and operative severity for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity(P-POSSUM) and the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE-Ⅱ) have been the most widely used scoring systems for emergency laparotomies. It is always better to have a single scoring system to predict outcomes and audit healthcare *** To compare the ability of APACHE-Ⅱ and P-POSSUM to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing emergency *** All patients undergoing emergency laparotomy at the Tata Main Hospital,Jamshedpur between December 2013 and November 2014 were included in the study. In this observational study, P-POSSUM and APACHE-Ⅱ scoring were done, and the outcome analysis evaluated with mortality being the primary *** For P-POSSUM, at a cut off value of 63 to predict mortality using receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, the area under the curve was 0.989; and for APACHE-Ⅱ, at the cut off value of 24, the area under the curve was *** Because the ability of APACHE-Ⅱ to predict mortality was similar to P-POSSUM and APACHE-Ⅱ does not need scoring for intra-operative findings and histopathology reports, APACHE-Ⅱ can be used pre-operatively to assess the risk in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. However, for audit purposes,either of the two scoring systems can be used.

关键词： Laparotomy Emergencies Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ Morbidity Mortality

Investigation of Long-Term Climate and Streamflow Patterns in Ontario

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American Journal of Climate Change 2021年第4期10卷 467-489页

作者： Amin Azarkhish Ramesh rudra Ramesh rudra prasad Daggupati Jaskaran Dhiman Trevor Dickinson Pradeep Goel Water Resources Engineering School of Engineering University of Guelph Guelph Ontario Canada Ministry of the Environment Conservation and Parks (MECP) Ontario Canada

To develop mitigation and adaptation strategies for undesired consequences of climate change, it is important to understand the changing hydrological and climatological trends in the past few decades. Although the changing climate is a cause of concern for the entire planet, its effects can vary significantly on a regional scale. Canada has experienced a rapid rise in the annual mean surface air temperature in the past decades. The current study aims to investigate trends in monthly mean precipitation, rainfall, snowfall, maximum and minimum temperature, as well as baseflow, surface runoff, and total streamflow values for the province of Ontario, Canada. To the best of the author’s knowledge, a similar study involving rural and urban watersheds, that quantifies the impact of changing climate on temperature and other hydrological processes over a period ranging from 1968 to 2017, has not yet been conducted for Ontario. Man-Kendall trend test was used to analyze trends in the above mentioned climatic and hydrometric parameters for rural and urban watersheds situated in the northern and southern parts of Ontario. The results of this study indicate that the mean monthly minimum temperatures for rural watersheds situated in southern Ontario have increased significantly for the winter and summer months, which may have caused an increase in snowmelt and consequently the streamflow for the winter months in the region. Unlike the watersheds in southern Ontario, the northern watersheds witnessed relatively fewer instances of significant changes in mean monthly temperatures, and in some cases, declining rates have been noted. Similarly, only a few watersheds in the north saw a substantial drop in baseflow over the summer months. For nearly all the months, the average monthly minimum and maximum temperatures were found to increase for urban watersheds. The streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff increased, likely due to rapid urbanization, resulting in a lower infiltration rat

关键词： Climate Change Hydrology Ontario Streamflow Precipitation Temperature

Development and Field Evaluation of a Low-Cost Wireless Sensor Network System for Hydrological Monitoring of a Small Agricultural Watershed

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Open Journal of Civil Engineering 2018年第2期8卷 166-182页

作者： Kishor Panjabi Ramesh rudra Stefano Gregori Pradeep Goel prasad Daggupati Rituraj Shukla Balew Mekonnen School of Engineering University of Guelph Guelph Canada Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch Ontario Ministry of the Environment Etobicoke Canada

Hydrological monitoring and real-time access to data are valuable for hydrological research and water resources management. In the recent decades, rapid developments in digital technology, micro-electromechanical systems, low power micro-sensing technologies and improved industrial manufacturing processes have resulted in retrieving real-time data through Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) systems. In this study, a remotely operated low-cost and robust WSN system was developed to monitor and collect real-time hydrologic data from a small agricultural watershed in harsh weather conditions and upland rolling topography of Southern Ontario, Canada. The WSN system was assembled using off-the-shelf hardware components, and an open source operating system was used to minimize the cost. The developed system was rigorously tested in the laboratory and the field and found to be accurate and reliable for monitoring climatic and hydrologic parameters. The soil moisture and runoff data for 7 springs, 19 summer, and 19 fall season rainfall events over the period of more than two years were successfully collected in a small experimental agricultural watershed situated near Elora, Ontario, Canada. The developed WSN system can be readily extended for the purpose of most hydrological monitoring applications, although it was explicitly tailored for a project focused on mapping the Variable Source Areas (VSAs) in a small agricultural watershed.

关键词： Wireless Sensor Network Low-Cost Hydrological Monitoring Real-Time Data Collection Agricultural Watershed