检索结果-南通市图书馆

Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 40-46页

作者： Hui qiu Tianjun Zhou Liwei Zou Jie Jiang Xiaolong Chen Shuai Hu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of the chinese academy of sciences BeijingChina

Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model *** to develop a reliable projection remains ***,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the *** best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,*** corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),*** increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained ***,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–*** wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–*** study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.

关键词： Tibetan plateau Climate sensitivity Precipitation projection Water availability projection

Crowdsourcing intelligence for improving disaster forecasts

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

The Innovation 2024年第4期5卷 13-14页

作者： Xiaohui Wang Fuhai Dao Yatai Ji Sihang qiu Xian Zhu Wenjie Dong Huizan Wang Weimin Zhang Xiaolong Zheng College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China The School of Artificial Intelligence University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China The State Key Laboratory of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Systems Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

*** disasters,including floods,storms,and tsunamis,pose a great threat to human societies.A recent study highlighted this concern,revealing that billions of people globally were exposed to flood hazards.1 In 2023,Super Typhoon Doksuri caused devasting floods in beijing and Hebei areas,resulting in massive casualties and huge economic ***,there is a need for a precise understanding of disaster processes,reliable forecasting of disaster effects,and timely warning of risks to prevent and mitigate major disasters.2 Numerical modeling stands as the predominant approach to meet these ***,the predictive accuracy of such numerical models could be degraded because of various factors:oversimplification of real processes,computational errors,fluctuations of complex environments(e.g.,terrains,precipitations,buildings,and plants),and the influence of human activities(e.g.,evacuation and rescue)during disasters.

关键词： disaster floods storm

Projected near-surface wind speed and wind energy over Central Asia using dynamical downscaling with bias-corrected global climate models

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第4期15卷 669-679页

作者： Jin-Lin ZHA Ting CHUAN Yuan qiu Jian WU De-Ming ZHAO Wen-Xuan FAN Yan-Jun LYU Hui-Ping JIANG Kai-Qiang DENG Miguel ANDRES-MARTIN Cesar AZORIN-MOLINA Deliang CHEN Key Laboratory of atmospheric Environment and Processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-Latitude Plateau Region Department of Atmospheric ScienceYunnan UniversityKunming 650091China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate and Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Energy&Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of Technology Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals Beijing 100094China School of atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Centro de Investigaciones Sobre Desertificacion Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas(CIDECSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana)ClimateAtmosphere and Ocean Laboratory(Climatoc-Lab)Moncada 46113Spain Regional Climate Group.Deparment of Earth sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

Wind energy development in Central Asia can help alleviate drought and fragile ***,current studies mainly used the global climate models(GCMs)to project wind speed and *** simulated biases in GCMs remain prominent,which induce a large uncertainty in the projected *** reduce the uncertainties of projected near-surface wind speed(NSW)and better serve the wind energy development in Central Asia,the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with bias-corrected GCMs was *** with the outputs of GCMs,dynamical downscaling acquired using the WRF model can better capture the high-and low-value centres of NSWS,especially those of Central Asia's ***,the simulated NSWS bias was also *** future changes in wind speed and wind energy,under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario,NSWS during 2031-2050 is projected to decrease compared with that in *** magnitude of NSwS reduction during 2031-2050 willreach 0.1 m s^(-1).and the maximum reduction is projected to occur over the central and western regions(>0.2 m s^(-1)).Furthermore,future wind power density(WPD)can reveal nonstationarity and strong volatility,although a downward trend is expected during *** addition,the higher frequency of wind speeds at the turbine hub height exceeding 3.0 m s^(-1)can render the plain regions more suitable for wind energy development than the mountains from 2031 to *** study can serve as a guide in gaining insights into future changes in wind energy across Central Asia and provide a scientific basis for decision makers in the formulation of policies for addressing climate change.

关键词： Near-surface wind speed Wind power density Dynamical downscaling Central Asia WRF

不同土壤湿度产品对长江中下游极端气候事件响应过程分析

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

大气科学学报 2024年第5期47卷 701-712页

作者：丁思聪邱博李倩南京大学大气科学学院江苏南京210023 中国科学院大气物理研究所北京100029

评估了5种常用的土壤湿度产品(SMOS、SMAP、ESA CCI、ERA5、SMCI)在长江中下游地区的适用性,并结合气象数据分析了各产品在极端降水、干旱事件期间的时空变化特征。结果表明:5种产品都能较好地反映长江中下游地区土壤湿度空间分布特征,S... 详细信息

评估了5种常用的土壤湿度产品(SMOS、SMAP、ESA CCI、ERA5、SMCI)在长江中下游地区的适用性,并结合气象数据分析了各产品在极端降水、干旱事件期间的时空变化特征。结果表明:5种产品都能较好地反映长江中下游地区土壤湿度空间分布特征,SMOS与其他产品相比存在普遍低估,时空变化特征与其他几种产品有一定差异。在反映土壤湿度对极端降水响应方面,SMAP、SMCI和ERA5都能反映出与异常降水变化相匹配的土壤湿度空间变化特征,而SMOS在空间上没能准确反映对降水的响应过程。在反映土壤湿度对极端干旱响应方面,SMOS和ESA CCI对极端干旱事件的响应与其他几种产品差异较大,ERA5和SMCI土壤湿度对干旱在空间上的响应较为准确。

关键词：土壤湿度极端降水极端干旱水循环遥感

维普期刊数据库博看期刊

An overview for monitoring and prediction of pathogenic microorganisms in the atmosphere

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Fundamental Research 2024年第3期4卷 430-441页

作者： Jianping Huang Danfeng Wang Yongguan Zhu Zifeng Yang Maosheng Yao Xiaoming Shi Taicheng An Qiang Zhang Cunrui Huang Xinhui Bi Jiang Li Zifa Wang Yongqin Liu Guibing Zhu Siyu Chen Jian Hang Xinghua qiu Weiwei Deng Huaiyu Tian Tengfei Zhang Tianmu Chen Sijin Liu Xinbo Lian Bin Chen Beidou Zhang Yingjie Zhao Rui Wang Han Li Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Research Center for Eco-Environmental sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory HealthFirst Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease(Guangzhou Medical University)Guangzhou 510230China College of Environmental sciences and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China china CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health National Institute of Environmental HealthChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 100021China Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory for Contaminants Exposure and Health School of Environmental Science and EngineeringInstitute of Environmental Health and Pollution ControlGuangdong University of TechnologyGuangzhou 510006China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry and Guangdong Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Resources Utilization Guangzhou Institute of GeochemistryChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510640China National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100021China State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Pan-third Pole Environment Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China College of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China School of atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 510640

Corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)has exerted a profound adverse impact on human *** have demonstrated that aerosol transmission is one of the major transmission routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2).Pathogenic microorganisms such as SARS-CoV-2 can survive in the air and cause widespread infection among *** monitoring of pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere and accurate epidemic prediction are the frontier guarantee for preventing large-scale epidemic *** of pathogenic microorganisms in the air,especially in densely populated areas,may raise the possibility to detect viruses before people are widely infected and contain the epidemic at an earlier *** multi-scale coupled accurate epidemic prediction system can provide support for governments to analyze the epidemic situation,allocate health resources,and formulate epidemic response *** review first elaborates on the effects of the atmospheric environment on pathogenic microorganism transmission,which lays a theoretical foundation for the monitoring and prediction of epidemic ***,the monitoring technique development and the necessity of monitoring pathogenic microorganisms in the atmosphere are summarized and ***,this review introduces the major epidemic prediction methods and highlights the significance to realize a multi-scale coupled epidemic prediction system by strengthening the multidisciplinary cooperation of epidemiology,atmospheric sciences,environmental sciences,sociology,demography,*** summarizing the achievements and challenges in monitoring and prediction of pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere,this review proposes suggestions for epidemic response,namely,the establishment of an integrated monitoring and prediction platform for pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere.

关键词： Aerosol transmission Epidemic monitoring methods Epidemic prediction modelsEpidemic response Multidisciplinary cooperation

基于二次分解和乌鸦搜索算法优化组合模型的超短期风速预测

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

太阳能学报 2024年第3期45卷 73-82页

作者：邱文智张文煜郭振海赵晶马可可郑州大学计算机与人工智能学院郑州450052 郑州大学地球科学与技术学院郑州450052 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029

针对风速的波动性和随机性等特点,提出一种基于二次分解和乌鸦搜索算法优化组合模型的超短期风速预测方法。该方法的基本思路是构造基于变分模态分解、样本熵和奇异谱分析的二次分解的方法,将原始风速序列分解为不同的子序列,并对这些... 详细信息

针对风速的波动性和随机性等特点,提出一种基于二次分解和乌鸦搜索算法优化组合模型的超短期风速预测方法。该方法的基本思路是构造基于变分模态分解、样本熵和奇异谱分析的二次分解的方法,将原始风速序列分解为不同的子序列,并对这些子序列分别建立预测模型,最后重构。对变分模态分解的子序列建立基于长短时记忆网络的深度学习模型预测,而残差序列进行二次分解后的子序列建立乌鸦搜索算法优化的组合预测模型预测。最后,对子序列进行重构并得到最终的预测结果。使用实际的风速观测资料开展模拟实验,结果表明:在3个风电场中,所提模型与其他模型相比平均相对误差分别提升了30.07%、37.56%和37.40%,验证了混合模型在超短期风速预测中的有效性和稳定性,以及在不同数据集上的泛化性能。

关键词：风速预测长短时记忆二次分解乌鸦搜索算法组合预测模型

BCC-CSM2模式耦合同化对北极海冰次季节预测的影响

同方期刊数据库博看期刊评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

气象学报 2024年第3期82卷 340-355页

作者：邱孙俊杰刘向文姚隽琛中国气象科学研究院北京100081 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心北京100081

近年来北极海冰的加速融化对北半球天气和气候的影响逐渐加剧,开展准确的海冰次季节预测已成为迫切需求。基于北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC-CSM2),采用多种耦合同化方案(大气同化、海洋-大气同化、海洋-海冰-大气同化)产生模式初值,开... 详细信息

近年来北极海冰的加速融化对北半球天气和气候的影响逐渐加剧,开展准确的海冰次季节预测已成为迫切需求。基于北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC-CSM2),采用多种耦合同化方案(大气同化、海洋-大气同化、海洋-海冰-大气同化)产生模式初值,开展大气(FST-A)、海洋-大气(FST-AO)、海洋-海冰-大气(FST-AOI)预测试验,进而探讨了多圈层耦合同化对北极海冰次季节预测的影响。结果表明,随着耦合同化分量的增加,模式对海冰密集度气候态和变率的预测技巧逐渐提高,其中FSTAOI在所有试验中表现最优。海洋-海冰-大气同化对预测的影响存在明显的季节性差异,其在大多数月份(尤其是少冰期(9—10月))能够明显降低海冰密集度预测误差,但在快速融冰期(6—7月),若干海冰边缘区(波弗特海、东西伯利亚海、拉普捷夫海、喀拉海附近)的密集度误差随预测时间延长而快速增大。因此,多圈层耦合同化在总体上能够有效改善北极海冰次季节预测,但其在快速融冰阶段对预测的影响存在较大不确定性。进一步诊断表明,在快速融冰期,采用海洋-海冰-大气同化初值的试验在预报开始阶段(主要指第1周)低估了海冰边缘区的密集度。在海冰-反照率正反馈机制影响下,这可能导致模拟地表短波辐射吸收增加,引起海水升温和海冰融化加快,进而导致海冰误差快速增长。未来研究将致力于继续提升海洋-海冰-大气多分量耦合同化的协调,以持续改进北极海冰次季节—季节预测能力。

关键词： BCC-CSM2 耦合同化北极海冰次季节预测

不同气候变化情景下中国北方苹果花期霜冻风险研究

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

中国农业气象 2024年第1期45卷 33-44页

作者：邱星霖林泽全李璨俞海洋王瑛北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室北京100875 应急管理部−教育部减灾与应急管理研究院北京100875 河北雄安新区气象局河北071700 中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室河北071700

中国北方苹果主产区位于华北平原和黄土高原,苹果花期霜冻灾害事件对果农收入和产区经济造成严重影响。未来气候变化会加剧极端天气气候事件的发生频率和强度。本研究基于NEX-GDDP共享的气候模式数据,利用泰勒图选取对苹果花期最低气温... 详细信息

中国北方苹果主产区位于华北平原和黄土高原,苹果花期霜冻灾害事件对果农收入和产区经济造成严重影响。未来气候变化会加剧极端天气气候事件的发生频率和强度。本研究基于NEX-GDDP共享的气候模式数据,利用泰勒图选取对苹果花期最低气温拟合能力最优的7个模式,计算未来苹果花期最低气温年遇值,采用极值分布传递函数校正方法对其订正,预估气候变化下中国北方苹果霜冻灾害及减产风险。以研究区各地遭遇30a一遇的苹果花期霜冻灾害强度为例,RCP4.5情景下未来近期和远期,河南、山西、陕西北部、宁夏北部区域为主要受灾区域,以最低气温−3~−2℃为主,减产率最高的为河南、宁夏、山西、陕西省北部地区,中国北方苹果总减产率在2.47%~5.22%。RCP8.5情景下,最低气温−3℃以下霜冻灾害区扩大至河南全境、山东中部等地,中国北方苹果总减产率在4.57%~12.39%。未来这些地区苹果种植需加强对霜冻灾害风险的防范。

关键词：霜冻灾害风险评估减产气候模式苹果

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

一次极端暴雨过程低空急流变化机制分析

大气科学 2024年第4期48卷 1608-1626页

作者：田利庆李舒文邱晓滨冉令坤申冬冬刘宇琛河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室石家庄050021 中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室雄安新区071800 河北省气象科学研究所石家庄050021 中国科学院大气物理研究所北京100029 天津市海洋气象重点实验室天津300074 中国科学院大学北京100049 云南省大湄公河次区域气象灾害与气候资源重点实验室云南大学昆明650500

2021年7月19~21日河南极端暴雨伴有显著的低空急流活动。本文利用ERA5(Fifth Generation of ECMWF Reanalyses)数据,采用等压坐标系水平运动方程、动能方程和位势高度梯度方程分析影响低空急流发展的关键物理因素。分析表明,低空急流中... 详细信息

2021年7月19~21日河南极端暴雨伴有显著的低空急流活动。本文利用ERA5(Fifth Generation of ECMWF Reanalyses)数据,采用等压坐标系水平运动方程、动能方程和位势高度梯度方程分析影响低空急流发展的关键物理因素。分析表明,低空急流中心首先从郑州附近925 hPa发展起来,然后垂直倾斜地向西北方向发展增强,中心位置先后抬升到850 hPa和700 hPa。低空急流纬向风和经向风局地变化主要受位势高度水平梯度的影响。郑州西侧山区存在位势高度低值系统,郑州东北侧平原地区为位势高度高值区,二者在郑州附近产生显著的纬向梯度力,与纬向东风耦合做功,驱动低空急流动能增长。位势高度这种异常分布主要与地表位势高度和近地层虚位温垂直积分有关。位势高度纬向梯度方程计算表明,垂直速度纬向梯度引起的位温垂直平流和非绝热加热纬向梯度项是导致位势高度纬向梯度局地变化的主要强迫项。总体上,近地面层山区相对低温区和平原地区相对高温区对低空急流发展演变有重要影响。

关键词：极端暴雨低空急流动能位势高度梯度

维普期刊数据库博看期刊