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Attribution analysis for the failure of CMIP5 climate models to simulate the recent global warming hiatus

Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第2期60卷 397-408页

作者： WEI Meng qiao fangli First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao 266237 China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China

The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)contains a group of state-of-the-art climate models and represents the highest level of climate simulation thus far.However,these models significantly overestimated global mean surface temperature(GMST)during 2006-2014.Based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method,the long term change of the observed GMST time series of HadCRUT4 records during 1850-2014 was analyzed,then the simulated GMST by 33 CMIP5 climate models was assessed.The possible reason that climate models failed to project the recent global warming hiatus was revealed.Results show that during 1850-2014 the GMST on a centennial timescale rose with fluctuation,dominated by the secular trend and the multi-decadal variability(MDV).The secular trend was relatively steady beginning in the early 20th century,with an average warming rate of 0.0883℃/decade over the last 50 years.While the MDV(with a^65-year cycle)showed2.5 multi-decadal waves during 1850-2014,which deepened and steepened with time,the alarming warming over the last quarter of the 20th century was a result of the concurrence of the secular warming trend and the warming phase of the MDV,both of which accounted one third of the temperature increase during 1975-1998.Recently the slowdown of global warming emerged as the MDV approached its third peak,leading to a reduction in the warming rate.A comparative analysis between the GMST time series derived from HadCRUT4 records and 33 CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the GMSTs during the historical simulation period of 1850-2005 can be reproduced well by models,especially on the accelerated global warming over the last quarter of 20th century.However,the projected GMSTs and their linear trends during 2006-2014 under the RCP4.5 scenario were significantly higher than observed.This is because the CMIP5 models confused the MDV with secular trend underlying the GMST time series,which results in a fast secular trend and an improper MDV with irregular phases and small amplitudes.This i

关键词：气候模型全球变暖故障模拟归因分析年代际变化经验模式分解时间序列地表温度

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Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2015年第3期34卷 31-41页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang qiao fangli Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

关键词： sea level rise South China Sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models

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Effects of horizontal mixing on the upper ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2012年第1期31卷 16-23页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang qiao fangli First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China

The influence of horizontal mixing on the thermal structure of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is examined based on a sigma coordinate model. In general, the distributions of the temperature and currents simulated by the sigma coordinate model are very close to the climatology. However, the simulated thermocline along the equator is slightly diffusive so that there is a cold bias above the main thermocline, while there is a warm bias under the main thermocline. Both horizontal diffusivity and viscosity have important effects on the upper thermal structure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while their detailed dynamics are different. Horizontal diffusivity affects the thermal structure in the upper ocean mainly through regulating the vertical diffusivity, while the horizontal viscosity does mainly through regulating directly the circulate system. A large horizontal diffusivity or a small horizontal viscosity can be in favor of simulating a more realistically thermal structure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

关键词： horizontal mixing thermal structure equatorial Pacific Ocean

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Ocean temperature responses to Typhoon Mstsa in the East China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2008年第4期27卷 26-38页

作者： WANG Guansuo qiao fangli First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China Key Laboratory of Marine Sciences and Numerical Modeling （MASNUM） of State Oceanic Administration First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China

The MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled model, with 21 layers in the vertical and （1/8） °horizontal resolution, was employed to investigate the oceanic responses to Typhoon Mstsa which traversed the East China Sea （ECS） during the period of 4 - 6 August, 2005. Numerical experiment results are analyzed and compared with observation. The responses of the sea surface temperature （SST）, in a focused area of （27° -29°N, 121° - 124°E）, include heating and cooling stages. The heating is mainly due to warm Kuroshio water transportation and downwelling due to the water accumulation. In the cooling stage, the amplitude of the simulated cold wake （ -3℃ ）, located on the right side of this typhoon track, is compared quite well with that of the satellite observed SST data. The wave-induced mixing（Bv） plays a key role for the SST cooling. Bv still plays a leading role, which accounts for 36%, for the ocean temperature drop in the upper ocean of 0 - 40 m, while the upwelling is responsible for 84% of the cooling for the lower layer of 40 - 70 m. The mixed layer depth （MLD） increased quickly from 28 to 50 m in the typhoon period. However, the simulated MLD without the wave-induced vertical mixing, evolution from 13 to 32 m, was seriously underestimated. The surface wave is too important to be ignored for the ocean responses to a typhoon.

关键词： typhoon wave-induce mixing ocean temperature response

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Observation of atmospheric methane in the Arctic Ocean up to 87° north

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第1期60卷 173-179页

作者： ZHANG Min qiao fangli SONG ZhenYa The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao 266237 China Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China

Although the Arctic methane reservoir is large,the emission of methane from the Arctic Ocean into the atmosphere remains poorly constrained.Continuous ship-borne measurements of atmospheric methane near the surface ocean were carried out during two cruises to investigate methane emission from the Arctic Ocean up to the latitude of 87°N.Three-day air mass back trajectories along the cruise tracks indicated that the surface Arctic Ocean could be a potentially important source of methane to the atmosphere.Rapid bursts in methane concentration occurred mainly along the ocean frontal area,suggesting that frontal upwelling in the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean might contribute to methane emissions into the atmosphere.

关键词：甲烷北极海洋正面的 upwelling

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On the accumulative contribution of CO_2 emission from China to global climate change

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中国科学：地球科学英文版 2016年第11期59卷 2202-2212页

作者： BAO Ying qiao fangli SONG ZhenYa First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration

A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China's CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China's CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries' CO_2 emission and other countries' CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature(SAT), sea surface temperature(SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China's CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.

关键词：积聚的贡献纯贡献气候模型公司 2 排放

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Instability analysis of three-dimensional ocean shear waves

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1996年第1期15卷 1-8页

作者： qiao fangli First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266003 China

Based on the continuously stratified quasi-geostrophic vorticity equation. the present paper analyses the instabilityof three-dimensional shear waves.The cause that most shear waves occur on the shelfside of strong current near the west boundaries of the oceans is presented. The growth rate of small perturbations relies on the stratification charctters, and a maximum value of growth rate exists for certain stratification.

关键词： Shear waves,instability analysis continuous stratificationn

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Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO_2 sink and pH change

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2012年第5期31卷 87-97页

作者： BAO Ying qiao fangli SONG Zhenya College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China

A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios （called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs）. The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） for the Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）. The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a （calculated by carbon） in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current （ACC） area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water （NADW）, and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water （AABW） along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere.

关键词： ocean carbon cycle model air-sea CO 2 flux anthropogenic carbon pH value

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Can Langmuir Circulations Solve the Problem of Insufficient Upper-Ocean Mixing?

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2020年第4期19卷 761-771页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang qiao fangli DAI Dejun First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China Key Laboratory of Marine Sciences and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China

Insufficient vertical mixing in the upper ocean during summer is a common problem of oceanic circulation and climate models.The turbulence associated with non-breaking waves is widely believed to effectively solve this problem.In many studies,non-breaking surface wave processes are attributed to the effects of Langmuir circulations(LCs).In the present work,the influences of LCs on the upper-ocean thermal structure are examined by using one-and three-dimensional ocean circulation,as well as climate,models.The results indicated that the effect of vertical mixing enhanced by LCs is limited to the upper ocean.The models evaluated,including those considering LC effects alone and the combined effects of LCs and wave breaking,failed to produce a reasonable summertime thermocline,resulting in a large cold bias in the subsurface layer.Therefore,while they can slightly reduce the biases of mixed layer depths and sea surface temperatures in models,LCs are insufficient to solve the problem of insufficient vertical mixing.Moreover,restriction of non-breaking surface wave-induced processes in LCs may be questionable.

关键词： Langmuir circulations vertical mixing thermocline subsurface temperature non-breaking wave processes

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The performance of a z-level ocean model in modeling the global tide

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2016年第11期35卷 35-43页

作者： XIAO Bin qiao fangli SHU Qi College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of China The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology

The performance of a z-level ocean model, the Modular Ocean Model Version 4（MOM4）, is evaluated in terms of simulating the global tide with different horizontal resolutions commonly used by climate models. The performance using various sets of model topography is evaluated. The results show that the optimum filter radius can improve the simulated co-tidal phase and that better topography quality can lead to smaller rootmean square（RMS） error in simulated tides. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to test the impact of spatial resolutions. It is shown that the model results are sensitive to horizontal resolutions. The calculated absolute mean errors of the co-tidal phase show that simulations with horizontal resolutions of 0.5° and 0.25° have about 35.5% higher performance compared that with 1° model resolution. An internal tide drag parameterization is adopted to reduce large system errors in the tidal amplitude. The RMS error of the best tuned 0.25° model compared with the satellite-altimetry-constrained model TPXO7.2 is 8.5 cm for M_2. The tidal energy fluxes of M_2 and K_1 are calculated and their patterns are in good agreement with those from the TPXO7.2. The correlation coefficients of the tidal energy fluxes can be used as an important index to evaluate a model skill.

关键词： global tide Modular Ocean Model global tidal energy flux

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