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Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios

American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第5期3卷 512-527页

作者： Sin Chan Chou Andre Lyra Caroline Mourao Claudine Dereczynski Isabel Pilotto Jorge Gomes Josiane Bustamante priscila tavares Adan Silva Daniela Rodrigues Diego Campos Diego Chagas Gustavo Sueiro Gracielle Siqueira Jose Marengo National Institute for Space Research Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil Department of Meteorology Federal University of Rio de JaneiroRio de JaneiroBrazil National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Warning Sao Jose dos CamposBrazil

Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.

关键词： South America Climate Downscaling Climate Change Assessment Climatic Extreme Indicators Eta Model

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Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global Climate Models

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American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第5期3卷 438-454页

作者： Sin Chan Chou André Lyra Caroline Mourao Claudine Dereczynski Isabel Pilotto Jorge Gomes Josiane Bustamante priscila tavares Adan Silva Daniela Rodrigues Diego Campos Diego Chagas Gustavo Sueiro Gracielle Siqueira Paulo Nobre José Marengo National Institute for Space Research Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil Department of Meteorology Federal University of Rio de JaneiroRio de JaneiroBrazil Centre for Monitoring and Warning of Natural Disasters Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil

To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations driven by three global models, the HadGEM2-ES, BESM, and MIROC5, for the present period, 1961-1990. The RCM domain covers South America, Central America, and Caribbean. These simulations will be used for assessment of climate change projections in the region. Maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in the domain, in particular by MIROC5 driven simulations, in summer and winter seasons. Larger spread among the simulations was found in the minimum temperatures, which showed mixed signs of errors. The spatial correlations of temperature simulations against the CRU observations show better agreement for the MIROC5 driven simulations. The nested simulations underestimate precipitation in large areas over the continent in austral summer, whereas in winter overestimate occurs in southern Amazonia, and underestimate in southern Brazil and eastern coast of Northeast Brazil. The annual cycle of the near-surface temperature is underestimated in all model simulations, in all regions in Brazil, and in most of the year. The temperature and precipitation frequency distributions reveal that the RCM and GCM simulations contain more extreme values than the CRU observations. Evaluations of the climatic extreme indicators show that in general hot days, warm nights, and heat waves are increasing in the period, in agreement with observations. The Eta simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES show wet trends in the period, whereas the Eta driven by BESM and by MIROC5 show trends for drier conditions.

关键词： South America Climate Downscaling Model Evaluation Climatic Extreme Indicators Eta Model

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Autoimmune hepatitis in childhood: The role of genetic and immune factors

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2013年第28期19卷 4455-4463页

作者： priscila Menezes Ferri Liu Débora Marques de Miranda Eleonora Druve tavares Fagundes Alexandre Rodrigues Ferreira Ana Cristina Simoes e Silva Department of Pediatrics Interdisciplinary Laboratory of Medical Investigation Federal University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais 30130-100 Brazil National Institute of Science and Technology of Molecular Medicine (INCT-MM) CNPq-FAPEMIG Federal University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais 30130-100 Brazil

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a rare chronic inflammatory disease of the liver, which affects a group of patients who lost their immunological tolerance to antigens of the liver. It is clinically characterized by hypergammaglobulinemia, elevated liver enzymes, presence of autoantibodies and histological changes. Although being rare in children, it represents a serious cause of chronic hepatic disease that can lead to cirrhosis and hepatic failure. Clinical findings, exclusion of more common liver disorders and the detection of antibodies antinuclear antibodies, smooth muscle antibodies and anti-LKM1 are usually enough for diagnosis on clinical practice. The pathogenic mechanisms that lead to AIH remain obscure, but some research findings suggest the participation of immunologic and genetic factors. It is not yet knew the triggering factor or factors that stimulate inflammatory response. Several mechanisms proposed partially explain the immunologic findings of AIH. The knowledge of immune factors evolved might result in better markers of prognosis and response to treatment. In this review, we aim to evaluate the findings of research about genetic and immune markers and their perspectives of application in clinical practice especially in pediatric population.

关键词： Autoimmune hepatitis Genetics Clinical practice Immunophenotype

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