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Evolution of seasonal land surface temperature trend in pond-breeding newt (Neurergus derjugini) in western Iran and eastern Iraq

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Ecological Processes 2023年第2期12卷 3-17页

作者： peyman karami Sajad Tavakoli Mina Esmaeili Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment Sciences Malayer University Department of Environmental and Forest Science Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment Science and Research Branch Islamic Azad University Department of Biology Faculty of Science Razi University

Background Temperature, as one of the effective environmental stimuli in many aspects of species life and ecosystems, can affect amphibians in many ways. Knowing and predicting temperature change and its possible effects on the habitat suitability and movements of amphibians have led many researchers to use climate change scenarios and species distribution models(SDMs). One of the important remote-sensing products that received less attention of conservation biologists is the land surface temperature(LST). Due to the small difference between LST and air temperature, this component can be used to investigate and monitor the daily and seasonal changes of habitats. This study aims to investigate the seasonal trend of LST in the habitat suitability and connectivity of the critically endangered newt(Neurergus derjugini) in its small distribution range, using the MODIS LST time series(2003 to 2021) and with the help of SDMs, Mann–Kendall(MK) and Pettitt non-parametric *** In the last decade, the increasing trend of LST versus its decreasing trends is obvious. Based on MK and Pettitt tests, in the winter and spring, with the decrease in latitude of 35.45° and increase in longitude of 46.14°, the core populations which are located in the southeast have experienced an increase in temperature. Considering the period time of breeding and overwintering, the continuity of winter and spring can be effective on the survival of adult newts as well as larvae in the microclimate. Linkages with the highest current flow between core populations in the winter and summer are the most likely to be vulnerable. At the level of habitat, the increase in LST is proportional to the trend of thermal landscape changes, and all seasons have had an increase in LST, but in winter and summer, the largest area of the habitat has been involved. By continuing the current trend, many high-altitude southern habitats in Iran will be endangered, and the species will be at risk of local extinction.

关键词： Seasonal change Local extinction Climate refuge Amphibian

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Evolution of seasonal land surface temperature trend in pond-breeding newt(Neurergus derjugini) in western Iran and eastern Iraq

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Ecological Processes 2023年 217-231页

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Landscape structure and suitable habitat analysis for effective restoration planning in semi-arid mountain forests

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Ecological Processes 2021年第1期10卷 237-249页

作者： Hossein Piri Sahragard Majid Ajorlo peyman karami Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management Faculty of Soil and WaterUniversity of ZabolZabol 98617Iran Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment SciencesMalayer UniversityMalayer 95863-657Iran.

Background:Suitable habitat and landscape structure play a pivotal role in the success of forest restoration *** study aimed to model the habitat suitability of wild almond(Amygdalus scoparia Spach)using three individual species distribution models(SDMs),i.e.,backpropagation artificial neural network(BP-ANN),maximum entropy(MaxEnt),generalized linear model(GLM),as well as the ensemble technique along with measuring the landscape metrics and analyzing the relationship between the distribution of the suitable habitat of the species in different landform classes in Fars Province,southern ***:There was no clear difference in the prediction performance of the *** BP-ANN had the highest accuracy(AUC=0.935 and k=0.757)in modeling habitat suitability of ***,followed by the ensemble technique,GLM,and MaxEnt models with the AUC values of 0.890,0.887,and 0.777,*** highest discrimination capacity was associated to the BP-ANN model,and the highest reliability was related to the ensemble ***,evaluation of variable importance showed that the occurrence of *** was strongly dependent on climatic variables,particularly isothermality(Bio 3),temperature seasonality(Bio 4),and precipitation of driest quarter(Bio 17).Analysis of the distribution of species habitat in different landform classes revealed that the canyon,mountain top,upland drainage,and hills in valley classes had the highest suitability for the species ***:Considering the importance of landform in the establishment of plant habitats,the combination of the outputs of the SDMs,landform,and the use of landscape metrics could provide both a clear view of habitat conditions and the possibility of analyzing habitat patches and their relationships that can be very useful in managing the remaining forests in semi-arid *** canyon,mountain top,and upland drainage classes were found to be the most important landforms to provide the highe

关键词： Amygdalus scoparia DOMAIN presence-only model Ensemble technique Individual distribution models Landscape metrics Pseudo-absence points

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Modeling habitat suitability of range plant species using random forest method in arid mountainous rangelands

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Journal of Mountain Science 2018年第10期15卷 2159-2171页

作者： Hossein PIRI SAHRAGARD Majid AJORLO peyman karami Range and Watershed Management Department Faculty of Soil and Water University of Zabol Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment Sciences Malayer University

Mountainous rangelands play a pivotal role in providing forage resources for livestock, particularly in summer, and maintaining ecological balance. This study aimed to identify environmental variables affecting range plant species distribution, ecological analysis of the relationship between these variables and the distribution of plants, and to model and map the plant habitats suitability by the Random Forest Method(RFM) in rangelands of the Taftan Mountain, Sistan and Baluchestan Province, southeastern Iran. In order to determine the environmental variables and estimate the potential distribution of plant species, the presence points of plants were recorded by using systematic random sampling method(90 points of presence) and soils were sampled in 5 habitats by random method in 0–30 and 30–60 cm depths. The layers of environmental variables were prepared using the Kriging interpolation method and Geographic Information System facilities. The distribution of the plant habitats was finally modelled and mapped by the RFM. Continuous maps of the habitat suitability were converted to binary maps using Youden Index(?) in order to evaluate the accuracy of the RFM in estimation of the distribution of species potentialhabitat. Based on the values of the area under curve(AUC) statistics, accuracy of predictive models of all habitats was in good level. Investigating the agreement between the predicted map, generated by each model, and actual maps, generated from fieldmeasured data, of the plant habitats, was at a high level for all habitats, except for Amygdalus scoparia habitat. This study concluded that the RFM is a robust model to analyze the relationships between the distribution of plant species and environmental variables as well as to prepare potential distribution maps of plant habitats that are of higher priority for conservation on the local scale in arid mountainous rangelands.

关键词：植物种类适用性产地随机牧场干旱模特儿 Kriging

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Relationship between niche breadth and range shifts of Rhinopoma muscatellum(Chiroptera:Rhinopomatidae)in climate change scenarios in arid and semiarid mountainous region of Iran

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第9期18卷 2357-2376页

作者： Sasan KAFAEI peyman karami Robab MEHDIZADEH Vahid AKMALI Department of Biology Faculty of ScienceRazi UniversityKermanshah ***Iran Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment SciencesMalayer UniversityMalayer 65719-95863Iran

Rapid climate change has provided the opportunity for many species to learn to adapt fast enough to modify their range *** positive and negative responses of the species in terms of distribution are related to parameters such as kind of species,degree of specialization,size and movement skills,and such *** to high elevations and transitions to higher latitudes are among the strategies proposed as a solution to the negative effects of climate ***,predicting how different species respond to climate change can help predict the conservation program for *** distribution models(SDMs)are widely used to predict the geographical distribution of habitat suitability and species *** muscatellum is one of the three mousetailed bats(Rhinopomatidae)inhabiting the southeastern,southern,and southwestern parts of Iran and its distribution range to the interior and northern parts of Iran has been limited by the Elburz and Zagros *** study the effect of climate change on this species,range shifts and coverage of protected regions,74 presence points and environmental variables(climate,topography,anthropogenic,and vegetation)in MaxEnt software were *** the implementation of the model,the autocorrelation of the presence points was reduced and the selection of pseudo absent points was limited by using the bias *** variables were prepared for Mid-Holocene,Current,Climate Current,and Future scenarios in 2070(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6,and RCP8.5).In order to evaluate the overlap of ecological niche,the Schoener’s D and I statistic metrics were ***,to measure the breadth of the niches,B1(inverse concentration)and B2(uncertainty)metrics in ENMTOOLS software were *** statistics were used as a *** distribution trend changes in climatic scenarios were performed by the Mann Kendall(MK)*** on the results,the AUC values for current and future climate models were calculated to be 0.89 a

关键词： Chiroptera Rhinopoma muscatellum Zagros Mountains Climatic changes MaxEnt Iran

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An evaluation of central Iran’s protected areas under different climate change scenarios (A Case on Markazi and Hamedan provinces)

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Journal of Mountain Science 2020年第1期17卷 68-82页

作者： peyman karami Sahar REZAEI Shabnam SHADLOO Morteza NADERI Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment SciencesMalay er UniversityMalayer65719-95863HamedanIran Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment SciencesUniversity of GuilanSowmehsara419961-3778GuilanIran Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Agriculture and Natural SciencesArak UniversityArak 38156-8-8349Iran

Global climate change poses a new challenge for species and can even push some species toward an extinction vortex. The most affected organisms are those with narrow tolerance to the climatic factors but many large mammals such as ungulates with a wider ecological niche are also being affected indirectly. Our research mainly used wild sheep in central Iran as a model species to explore how the suitable habitats will change under different climatic scenarios and to determine if current borders of protected areas will adequately protect habitat requirements. To create habitat models we used animal-vehicle collision points as an input for species presence data. We ran habitat models using Max Ent modeling approach under different climatic scenarios of the past, present and future(under the climatic scenarios for minimum(RCP2.6) and maximum(RCP8.5) CO2 concentration trajectories). We tried to estimate the overlap and the width of the ecological niche using relevant metrics. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the protected areas, suitable maps were concerted to binary maps using True Skill Statistic(TSS) threshold and measured the similarity of the binary maps for each scenario using Kappa index. In order to assess the competence of the present protected areas boundary in covering the distribution of species, two different scenarios were employed, which are ensemble scenario 1: an ensemble of the binary maps of the species distribution in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP2.6;and ensemble scenario 2: an ensemble of binary suitability maps in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP8.5. Then, the borders of modeled habitats with the boundaries of 23 existing protected areas in two central provinces in Iran were compared. The predicted species distribution under scenario 1(RCP2.6) was mostly similar to its current distribution(Kappa = 0.53) while the output model under scenario 2(RCP8.5) indicated a decline in the species distribution range. Under the first ensemble scenario, curr

关键词： Climatic Scenarios Species Distribution Modeling Protected area Niche modeling Wild Sheep

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Prediction of the Microstructural Variations of Cold-Worked Pure Aluminum during Annealing Process

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Modeling and Numerical Simulation of Material Science 2015年第1期5卷 1-14页

作者： Hamid Reza Rezaei Ashtiani peyman karami School of Mechanical Engineering Arak University of Technology Arak Iran

The mechanical properties such as hardness and ultimate tensile strength of metals depend on the grain size, which have to be properly controlled and optimized to ensure the better economy and desirable mechanical characteristics of the metals. In order to study the microstructure evolution of AA1070, many experimental tests were conducted at different cold working and annealing conditions. Utilizing the experimental results, the static recrystallization and grain growth behavior of AA1070 have been investigated and the developed equations that can be used to the FEM of the annealing process have been obtained. The agreement between numerical modeling and experimental results is reasonably good for this material. The results showed that the recrystallization and grain growth behavior of AA1070 was evidently affected by both the annealing temperature and plastic strain.

关键词： Grain Size Annealing Static Recrystallization Grain Growth FEM

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Simulations of Heat and Moisture Conditions in a Retrofit Wall Construction with Vacuum Insulation Panels

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Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2013年第7期7卷 781-788页

作者： Kjartan Gudmundsson peyman karami Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Stockholm 100 44 Sweden

Vacuum insulation panels provide unprecedented possibilities for renovating the existing building stock in a manner that reduces the thermal losses through the building envelope. This study is focused on the implementation of VIPs (vacuum insulation panels) in energy retrofit projects with rendered outer walls. Particular emphasis is put on reducing the thermal bridges due to mechanical fasteners and at the joints of the panels. These are evaluated through a parametric study of the impact of the thermal conductivity of the joints of the panels and the adjacent insulation layer as well as the material of the fasteners. The study is carried out with 3D FEM (finite element method) simulations software. Furthermore, the moisture conditions in the construction are studied. The dynamic moisture behavior of a wall construction is modeled with a two dimensional FEM model. The long term effects of vapor diffusion are investigated in terms of accumulated moisture and the risk of condensation. The results illustrate that vacuum insulation on the outside of the wall construction does not pose a moisture problem to the construction. The simulations are based on a draft of a new technical solution for the refurbishment of a building that is typical for the great Swedish building program of the 1970s.

关键词：真空绝热板水分条件改造项目模拟软件施工外墙二维有限元模型热量

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