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From statistics to grids:A two-level model to simulate crop pattern dynamics

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2022年第6期21卷 1786-1798页

作者： XIA Tian WU Wen-bin ZhOU Qing-bo peter hverburg YANG Peng hU Qiong YE Li-ming ZhU Xiao-juan Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis&Simulation Hubei Province/College of Urban&Environmental ScienceCentral China Normal UniversityWuhan 430079P.R.China Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081P.R.China Agricultural Information Institute Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081P.R.China Institute for Environmental Studies VU University AmsterdamAmsterdam 1085The Netherlands Department of Geology Ghent UniversityGhent 9000Belgium Commercial and Economic Law School China University of Political Science and LawBeijing 100088P.R.China

Crop planting patterns are an important component of agricultural land systems.These patterns have been significantly changed due to the combined impacts of climatic changes and socioeconomic developments.however,the extent of these changes and their possible impacts on the environment,terrestrial landscapes and rural livelihoods are largely unknown due to the lack of spatially explicit datasets including crop planting patterns.To fill this gap,this study proposes a new method for spatializing statistical data to generate multitemporal crop planting pattern datasets.This method features a two-level model that combines a land-use simulation and a crop pattern simulation.The output of the first level is the spatial distribution of the cropland,which is then used as the input for the second level,which allocates crop censuses to individual gridded cells according to certain rules.The method was tested using data from 2000 to 2019 from heilongjiang Province,China,and was validated using remote sensing images.The results show that this method has high accuracy for crop area spatialization.Spatial crop pattern datasets over a given time period can be important supplementary information for remote sensing and thus support a wide range of application in agricultural land systems.

关键词： crop planting pattern spatialization simulation spatiotemporal change remote sensing

土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)模型研究进展

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地理学报 2009年第4期64卷 456-468页

作者：唐华俊吴文斌杨鹏陈佑启 peter h.verburg 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所北京100081 农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室北京100081 荷兰瓦赫宁根大学环境系

土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要原因,LUCC模型研究始终是土地变化科学研究的重点。论文系统总结了近10年来国内外LUCC模型在理论、方法、实践应用等方面取得的新进展,指出了亟待解决的问题,并对今后的发展方向进行了... 详细信息

土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要原因,LUCC模型研究始终是土地变化科学研究的重点。论文系统总结了近10年来国内外LUCC模型在理论、方法、实践应用等方面取得的新进展,指出了亟待解决的问题,并对今后的发展方向进行了展望。研究发现,①LUCC模型的功能和作用呈现多样化趋势,是了解、认识和解释土地利用系统的动态变化特征、过程和效应的有效工具,可以服务于土地利用管理和政策的制订。②模型的核心内容是研究LUCC时空变化格局,模型发展正经历从单一的非空间模型向非空间模型和空间模型融合的演进过程,但多数模型只重视空间变化机制研究,而对时间机制考虑不足。③反馈机制是LUCC系统的一个重要特征,现有模型在反馈机制方面的研究尚十分薄弱,研究不同时空尺度的反馈机制必将是未来LUCC模型的新焦点。④LUCC研究本质上是"人类—环境"关系研究,以往模型多为局部均衡分析模型,未来LUCC模型发展趋向应从系统观和整体观角度来综合考虑"人类—环境"相互作用机制,这也是LUCC模型的最高更次的科学难点问题。⑤多尺度、多层次的综合研究是LUCC模型的必然要求,模型空间尺度已经从早期的单一空间尺度转变到现今的多空间尺度,但尺度推移仍是模型研究中值得深入探讨的问题。⑥尽管LUCC模型验证方法趋于多元化,但目前还没有一个模型验证的统一标准和规范,参考数据的不足也大大限制了模型验证效果,如何对LUCC模型的可靠性和科学性进行合理验证始终是LUCC模型所面临的关键挑战之一。

关键词：土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC) 模型作用时空变化格局反馈尺度验证

基于土地利用变化模型的退耕还林还草决策分析——以通辽地区为例

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自然资源学报 2005年第3期20卷 461-470页

作者：张永民赵士洞周成虎 peter h.verburg 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所北京100101 Department of Environmental Sciences Wageningen University P.O.Box376700 AA WageningenThe Netherlands

通过综合考虑影响退耕还林还草的自然和社会因素,结合土地利用规划和遥感影像解译结果,论文以通辽地区为例,介绍了利用土地利用变化模型确定退耕还林还草区域的方法和过程。根据对2010年模型模拟结果和2000年通辽地区土地利用现状的对... 详细信息

通过综合考虑影响退耕还林还草的自然和社会因素,结合土地利用规划和遥感影像解译结果,论文以通辽地区为例,介绍了利用土地利用变化模型确定退耕还林还草区域的方法和过程。根据对2010年模型模拟结果和2000年通辽地区土地利用现状的对比分析,结果发现2000～2010年该地区进行退耕还林还草的合适区域应该主要位于研究地区的中部、南部,以及北中部。研究地区中部属于科尔沁沙地的腹地,土地沙漠化最为严重,同时城镇和农村居民点分布较密,退耕还林还草是政府用于减缓风沙对城镇和农村居民点危害程度的重要生态措施;而南部和北中部属于丘陵和山区,由于过度开垦,水土流失较为严重,是实施退耕还林还草的重点区域。此外,与退耕还林区相比,退耕还草区距城镇、农村居民点以及道路相对较远,具有可达性较差、地理位置较为偏僻的特点。论文得出的结果可为今后通辽地区退耕还林还草工程的实施提供科学依据,同时,该文提出的确定退耕还林还草区域的方法对其它地区具有一定的借鉴意义。

关键词：土地利用变化模型退耕还林还草通辽

土地利用变化空间模拟的进展——CLUE-S模型及其应用

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地理科学进展 2004年第4期23卷 63-71,i003页

作者：蔡玉梅刘彦随宇振荣 peter h.verburg 中国土地勘测规划院土地规划所北京100035 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所北京100101 中国农业大学生态环境学院北京100094 瓦格宁根农业大学农学系

土地利用变化的空间模拟是进行土地利用情景分析的重要基础。本文在介绍了国际上常用的细胞自控模型(CA)、土地利用变化及效应模型(CLUE)的基础上,重点分析了小尺度土地利用变化及效应模型(CLUE-S)的方法,并以邯郸地区为例进行了案例研... 详细信息

土地利用变化的空间模拟是进行土地利用情景分析的重要基础。本文在介绍了国际上常用的细胞自控模型(CA)、土地利用变化及效应模型(CLUE)的基础上,重点分析了小尺度土地利用变化及效应模型(CLUE-S)的方法,并以邯郸地区为例进行了案例研究。认为CLUE-S模型采取经验模型的方法,通过建立土地利用空间分配和驱动因子之间的统计关系模拟近期土地利用变化的情景。同时也考虑了不同土地利用方式之间的竞争关系,因此可以较好地模拟小尺度地区的近期土地利用变化情景;考虑到短期或近期土地利用变化的因子主要与人类的社会经济活动有关,而社会经济因子的空间化尚存在一定难度。因此,突破这一瓶颈成为CLUE-S模型发展和应用的关键;CLUE-S模型主要解决的是不同空间尺度上的土地利用空间分配问题,在土地生产潜力评价、土地利用规划等方面具有广阔的应用前景。

关键词：土地利用变化空间模拟

基于模型的中国东北地区土地利用时空格局变化研究（英文）

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2016年第2期26卷 171-187页

作者：夏天吴文斌周清波 peter h.verburg 余强毅杨鹏叶立明 Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation Hubei Province/College of Urban & Environmental SciencesCentral China Normal University Key Laboratory of Agri–Informatics Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Institute for Environmental Studies VU University Amsterdam CAAS-UGent Joint Laboratory of Global Change and Food Security/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Department of Geology and Soil Sciences (WE13) Ghent University

Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China(NEC). In total,13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980–2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution,and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980–2000,with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000,with a slight increase during 2000–2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands,particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands,which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.

关键词：土地利用变化东北地区基于模型时空变化变化分析土地利用类型社会经济因素生态环境安全

2000–2050年东北三省土地利用时空格局变化过程模拟及其生态服务影响研究（英文）

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2018年第11期28卷 1611-1625页

作者：夏天吴文斌周清波谭文霞 peter h.verburg 杨鹏叶利明 Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation Hubei Province/College of Urban & Environmental ScienceCentral China Normal University Institute for Environmental Studies VU University Amsterdam CAAS-UGent Joint Laboratory of Global Change and Food Security/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Department of Geology(WE13) Ghent University

Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking.here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China(NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security(ESS),food security(FSS) and comprehensive development(CDS).The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005.Overall,the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%.Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain,forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains,while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands.Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan,the ecological service value(ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050.The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios.Thus,CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection,especially for the wetlands,which should be given higher priority for future development.The issue of coordination is also critical in future development.The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.

关键词：生态系统服务陆地中国东北建模空间时间食物安全